Game Recap: WPG 4, VGK 0, April 3, 2025

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Game Recap

WPG4

FinalThu, Apr 3, 2025Every game that night

VGK0

WPG beat VGK 4-0, with the chances close: 1.82 expected goals to 2.10. N. Niederreiter led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). N. Niederreiter had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. E. Comrie stopped 26 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
WPG	2	1	1	4
VGK	0	0	0	0

1st 13:01WPGM. Scheifele0.14 xG
1st 18:15WPGA. Lowry0.37 xG
2nd 11:53WPGC. MillerPP0.05 xG
3rd 19:08WPGC. PerfettiEN0.44 xG

Team Stats

WPGVGK

22Shots on goal26

1.82Expected goals2.10

50Shot attempts64

175v5 shots on goal19

1/2Power play0/1

29Hits24

18Blocked shots15

2Penalty minutes4

11Giveaways17

1Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WPG 1.82 xGVGK 2.10 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WPG22 on goal, 4 scored

VGK25 on goal, 0 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Niederreiter	RW	0	2	2	5	3	1	+1	0	16:30	1:46
M. Scheifele	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	20:14	2:09
K. Connor	LW	0	1	1	4	0	1	+2	0	19:13	2:10
M. Appleton	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	17:33	0:53
A. Iafallo	LW	0	1	1	1	2	1	+1	0	17:04	1:42
C. Perfetti	C	1	0	1	2	2	1	+1	0	15:19	2:08
A. Lowry	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	0	15:04	0:00
V. Namestnikov	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	+1	0	14:46	1:43
N. Ehlers	LW	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	12:35	2:06
M. Barron	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	12:28	0:00
B. Tanev	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	10:41	0:00
J. Anderson-Dolan	C	0	0	0	0	6	1	0	0	8:54	0:00
L. Schenn	D	0	1	1	0	3	3	+1	0	19:25	0:00
C. Miller	D	1	0	1	1	3	0	+1	2	16:35	1:42
L. Stanley	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	13:20	0:00
J. Morrissey	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	+1	0	24:57	2:47
D. DeMelo	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	22:26	0:14
D. Samberg	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	+1	0	20:56	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
E. Comrie	26	26	0	1.000	60:00	Win
C. Hellebuyck	0	0	0	–	0:00

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Eichel	C	4	0	0	-1	0	19:50	1:03
I. Barbashev	LW	0	1	0	0	0	19:43	1:00
M. Stone	RW	2	0	0	0	0	17:53	1:00
P. Dorofeyev	RW	2	1	0	0	0	17:11	1:00
N. Roy	C	1	2	0	-1	2	16:09	0:59
W. Karlsson	C	1	0	0	0	0	16:05	1:01
R. Smith	RW	2	0	0	-1	0	15:18	0:57
B. Saad	LW	1	0	1	-1	0	15:02	0:00
K. Kolesar	RW	1	5	0	-2	0	13:11	0:00
B. Howden	C	2	1	0	-2	0	12:52	0:00
V. Olofsson	LW	1	0	1	-1	0	12:36	1:00
T. Pearson	LW	3	4	1	-2	0	10:36	0:00
N. Hanifin	D	1	0	3	-1	0	21:16	1:11
S. Theodore	D	1	0	1	-2	0	19:21	0:49
B. McNabb	D	1	5	4	-2	2	19:05	0:00
A. Pietrangelo	D	1	2	0	0	0	18:26	0:00
N. Hague	D	0	2	3	0	0	18:13	0:00
Z. Whitecloud	D	2	1	1	0	0	17:57	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Hill	19	16	3	.842	40:00	Loss
A. Schmid	2	2	0	1.000	15:24

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WPG 2.8, VGK 2.9	WPG 4, VGK 0
Total goals	5.7	4
Shots on goal	WPG 24.9, VGK 28.4	WPG 22, VGK 26
Win chance	VGK 53%	WPG won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WPG K. Connor	2.9	4	0.94	1	34%	0
VGK J. Eichel	2.7	4	0.87	0	27%	0
VGK P. Dorofeyev	2.7	2	0.55	0	28%	0
WPG N. Ehlers	2.4	2	0.74	0	25%	0
VGK W. Karlsson	2.0	1	0.53	0	20%	0
WPG J. Morrissey	1.9	1	0.64	0	12%	0
WPG M. Scheifele	1.9	1	0.86	1	31%	1
VGK S. Theodore	1.9	1	0.60	0	8%	0
VGK M. Stone	1.8	2	0.75	0	24%	0
VGK N. Hanifin	1.8	1	0.44	0	9%	0
VGK A. Pietrangelo	1.7	1	0.40	0	6%	0
VGK B. Saad	1.7	1	0.41	0	20%	0
WPG C. Perfetti	1.6	2	0.52	1	18%	1
WPG N. Niederreiter	1.5	5	0.37	2	18%	0
VGK V. Olofsson	1.5	1	0.39	0	20%	0
VGK R. Smith	1.5	2	0.41	0	16%	0
WPG M. Appleton	1.4	1	0.33	1	13%	0
VGK I. Barbashev	1.4	0	0.54	0	20%	0
WPG A. Iafallo	1.4	1	0.37	1	16%	0
VGK N. Hague	1.3	0	0.18	0	5%	0
VGK N. Roy	1.3	1	0.38	0	15%	0
WPG D. Samberg	1.3	0	0.26	0	5%	0
WPG A. Lowry	1.3	1	0.38	1	16%	1
VGK B. Howden	1.3	2	0.36	0	17%	0
VGK T. Pearson	1.2	3	0.26	0	11%	0
WPG C. Miller	1.2	1	0.22	1	5%	1
WPG V. Namestnikov	1.1	1	0.41	0	13%	0
VGK Z. Whitecloud	1.1	2	0.22	0	6%	0
WPG J. Anderson-Dolan	1.1	0	0.18	0	9%	0
VGK B. McNabb	1.0	1	0.22	0	4%	0
WPG L. Schenn	1.0	0	0.13	1	3%	0
WPG M. Barron	1.0	0	0.18	0	8%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	1.0	1	0.26	0	11%	0
WPG D. DeMelo	0.9	1	0.26	0	4%	0
WPG B. Tanev	0.8	1	0.20	0	10%	0
WPG L. Stanley	0.8	0	0.16	1	2%	0

Shots on goal: 27 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.