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Game Recap
WPG2
FinalMon, Apr 13, 2026Every game that night
VGK6

VGK beat WPG 6-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.56 expected goals to 2.19. VGK outshot WPG 38 to 23. J. Eichel led the way with 4 points (1 G, 3 A). R. Andersson had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. C. Hart stopped 21 of 23.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
WPG0022
VGK0246
  1. 2nd 7:38VGKM. StoneSH0.26 xG
  2. 2nd 18:54VGKR. Smith0.11 xG
  3. 3rd 0:31VGKI. Barbashev0.16 xG
  4. 3rd 2:34WPGG. VilardiPP0.34 xG
  5. 3rd 3:37VGKR. Andersson0.03 xG
  6. 3rd 4:41WPGM. Scheifele0.20 xG
  7. 3rd 5:42VGKP. DorofeyevPP0.13 xG
  8. 3rd 7:38VGKJ. EichelPP0.29 xG

Team Stats

WPGVGK
23Shots on goal38
2.19Expected goals3.56
40Shot attempts65
185v5 shots on goal19
1/5Power play2/7
16Hits16
12Blocked shots10
18Penalty minutes14
9Giveaways14
3Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WPG 2.19 xGVGK 3.56 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.541st2nd3rdVGK goal, 7:38VGK goal, 18:54VGK goal, 0:31WPG goal, 2:34VGK goal, 3:37WPG goal, 4:41VGK goal, 5:42VGK goal, 7:38

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WPG21 on goal, 2 scored
VGK36 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WPG Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
M. ScheifeleC112200-1421:026:49
G. VilardiC112200-1217:526:38
K. ConnorLW011311-2021:256:44
J. ToewsC000000-2217:286:46
C. KoepkeLW0001220016:060:00
A. LowryC000003-1416:000:00
I. RosenRW0002000012:291:52
C. PerfettiC0000110012:232:03
N. NiederreiterRW000110-1212:222:04
B. LambertC0001000011:081:52
B. YagerC000100-1010:250:00
N. ChibrikovRW000120-127:270:00
C. MillerD0112310016:112:22
J. MorrisseyD000321-2026:406:21
D. DeMeloD000011-1023:360:04
D. SambergD000210+1218:470:00
J. BrysonD000202-1013:210:00
H. FleuryD000020-2012:450:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
C. Hellebuyck38326.84260:00Loss
E. Comrie000–0:00

VGK Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
J. EichelC134400+3017:346:29
M. StoneRW123311+3016:065:16
I. BarbashevLW112110+3214:274:52
P. DorofeyevRW1012000016:426:55
R. SmithRW1013000014:133:30
M. MarnerRW0002000218:396:18
T. HertlC000420-1016:596:56
C. SissonsC0001010016:402:40
B. HowdenC0000100216:033:44
N. DowdC0001020212:170:00
C. SmithRW0001200011:250:00
K. KolesarRW0001100011:190:00
N. HanifinD022202+3020:282:43
R. AnderssonD112721+3020:103:33
B. McNabbD0001210419:530:32
S. TheodoreD0004000218:493:42
J. LauzonD0000400017:010:00
K. KorczakD0001020011:340:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
C. Hart23212.91359:51Win
A. Hill000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

WPG

Line 1M. Scheifele11:20G. Vilardi11:05K. Connor10:24
Line 2J. Toews9:39I. Rosen10:37C. Koepke8:38
Line 3B. Lambert9:16C. Perfetti9:42A. Lowry9:21
Line 4N. Niederreiter10:18B. Yager7:55N. Chibrikov7:27
Pair 1D. DeMelo15:41J. Morrissey17:33
Pair 2D. Samberg13:04C. Miller13:08
Pair 3H. Fleury7:58J. Bryson9:49

VGK

Line 1T. Hertl9:54C. Sissons11:05R. Smith10:43
Line 2M. Marner10:01P. Dorofeyev9:47B. Howden9:38
Line 3M. Stone9:26J. Eichel9:38I. Barbashev8:57
Line 4N. Dowd9:30K. Kolesar8:19C. Smith8:33
Pair 1B. McNabb15:56S. Theodore13:31
Pair 2N. Hanifin12:49R. Andersson11:55
Pair 3K. Korczak11:34J. Lauzon11:39

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreWPG 2.7, VGK 3.1WPG 2, VGK 6
Total goals5.78
Shots on goalWPG 23.1, VGK 28.2WPG 23, VGK 38
Win chanceVGK 57%VGK won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
VGK J. Eichel2.941.05429%1
WPG K. Connor2.831.02135%0
VGK P. Dorofeyev2.620.68130%1
WPG M. Scheifele1.921.05233%1
VGK R. Andersson1.970.44212%1
VGK T. Hertl1.940.61022%0
VGK M. Marner1.921.01026%0
VGK M. Stone1.930.92327%1
WPG C. Perfetti1.800.54019%0
VGK N. Hanifin1.720.3728%0
WPG J. Morrissey1.630.65013%0
VGK S. Theodore1.640.56010%0
WPG G. Vilardi1.620.69227%1
VGK I. Barbashev1.510.58220%1
WPG C. Koepke1.310.25012%0
VGK B. McNabb1.310.2506%0
VGK B. Howden1.200.41018%0
WPG N. Niederreiter1.210.32016%0
WPG D. Samberg1.220.2404%0
VGK R. Smith1.130.33113%1
VGK C. Sissons1.110.26010%0
WPG J. Toews1.100.36013%0
WPG A. Lowry1.000.34014%0
VGK J. Lauzon1.000.1504%0
WPG B. Lambert1.010.30012%0
WPG D. DeMelo0.900.2304%0
VGK C. Smith0.810.1708%0
WPG C. Miller0.820.1614%0
WPG N. Chibrikov0.810.21011%0
WPG I. Rosen0.820.19010%0
VGK K. Kolesar0.710.2309%0
VGK N. Dowd0.710.24010%0
WPG H. Fleury0.600.1102%0
VGK K. Korczak0.610.1702%0
WPG J. Bryson0.420.1302%0

Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.