Game Recap: WPG 3, WSH 4, November 26, 2025

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Game Recap

WPG3

FinalWed, Nov 26, 2025Every game that night

WSH4

WSH beat WPG 4-3 despite fewer good chances: 2.72 expected goals to 3.39. WSH outshot WPG 35 to 21. K. Connor led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). J. Chychrun had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 2.8. C. Lindgren stopped 18 of 21.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
WPG	1	1	1	3
WSH	2	1	1	4

1st 6:38WSHJ. Carlson0.10 xG
1st 14:21WSHJ. Chychrun0.03 xG
1st 19:38WPGG. Vilardi0.31 xG
2nd 1:24WPGG. VilardiPP0.22 xG
2nd 5:22WSHA. Ovechkin0.03 xG
3rd 5:25WSHC. McMichael0.19 xG
3rd 15:11WPGM. Scheifele0.48 xG

Team Stats

WPGWSH

21Shots on goal35

3.39Expected goals2.72

59Shot attempts59

165v5 shots on goal32

1/2Power play0/2

12Hits20

15Blocked shots21

6Penalty minutes6

12Giveaways10

3Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WPG 3.39 xGWSH 2.72 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WPG20 on goal, 3 scored

WSH34 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Connor	LW	0	3	3	2	0	1	+1	0	22:45	2:44
G. Vilardi	C	2	0	2	2	0	1	+1	0	17:55	2:44
M. Scheifele	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	20:42	2:44
C. Perfetti	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	16:59	2:44
J. Toews	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	2	15:30	0:50
G. Nyquist	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	14:10	0:49
M. Barron	C	0	0	0	2	3	1	-1	2	13:49	0:00
V. Namestnikov	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	-1	2	13:11	0:50
A. Iafallo	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	12:01	0:00
N. Niederreiter	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	11:37	0:50
A. Lowry	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	11:18	0:00
T. Pearson	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	11:18	0:00
J. Morrissey	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+2	0	26:02	2:44
D. DeMelo	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	+2	0	22:20	0:00
D. Samberg	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0	20:20	0:01
C. Miller	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	18:36	0:50
E. Salomonsson	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-2	0	16:18	0:00
L. Stanley	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-2	0	12:50	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
E. Comrie	35	31	4	.886	58:19	Loss
T. Milic	0	0	0	–	0:00

WSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. McMichael	LW	1	0	1	6	0	1	0	0	21:04	2:09
A. Beauvillier	RW	0	1	1	2	1	2	0	0	19:54	2:11
T. Wilson	RW	0	1	1	0	2	3	0	0	18:40	1:49
A. Ovechkin	LW	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	0	17:19	4:00
E. Frank	RW	0	1	1	2	3	0	0	0	11:13	1:54
S. Milano	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	8:14	0:00
A. Protas	LW	0	0	0	3	0	1	+1	0	17:19	0:00
D. Strome	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	4	16:44	1:51
R. Leonard	RW	0	0	0	2	1	1	+1	0	15:26	1:49
J. Sourdif	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	14:37	0:00
B. Duhaime	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	10:33	0:00
H. Lapierre	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	8:56	0:00
J. Carlson	D	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0	24:44	1:42
J. Chychrun	D	1	0	1	8	1	0	+3	0	21:47	2:19
M. Roy	D	0	1	1	0	0	7	+1	0	19:58	0:00
M. Fehérváry	D	0	0	0	1	2	3	-2	0	22:48	0:00
R. Sandin	D	0	0	0	2	2	2	+2	0	18:00	0:16
D. McIlrath	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	9:10	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Lindgren	21	18	3	.857	60:00	Win
L. Thompson	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

WPG

Line 1M. Scheifele16:03K. Connor16:39G. Vilardi13:43

Line 2J. Toews14:13G. Nyquist12:43M. Barron13:25

Line 3C. Perfetti12:44V. Namestnikov10:54T. Pearson10:24

Line 4A. Lowry10:00A. Iafallo10:38N. Niederreiter10:37

Pair 1D. DeMelo19:47J. Morrissey20:11

Pair 2D. Samberg17:20E. Salomonsson15:15

Pair 3C. Miller16:19L. Stanley12:50

WSH

Line 1A. Protas15:19J. Sourdif13:45T. Wilson13:13

Line 2D. Strome14:14A. Beauvillier16:50A. Ovechkin12:23

Line 3C. McMichael15:42R. Leonard13:37B. Duhaime10:33

Line 4H. Lapierre8:56S. Milano8:14E. Frank9:19

Pair 1J. Carlson18:37M. Fehérváry18:29

Pair 2M. Roy19:07J. Chychrun19:23

Pair 3R. Sandin16:57D. McIlrath9:07

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WPG 2.9, WSH 2.9	WPG 3, WSH 4
Total goals	5.8	7
Shots on goal	WPG 25.9, WSH 27.6	WPG 21, WSH 35
Win chance	WSH 51%	WSH won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WPG K. Connor	3.1	2	1.00	3	34%	0
WSH A. Ovechkin	2.8	3	0.84	1	35%	1
WSH J. Chychrun	2.8	8	0.67	1	19%	1
WPG M. Scheifele	2.1	3	0.95	1	32%	1
WPG G. Vilardi	2.0	2	0.70	2	28%	2
WSH T. Wilson	2.0	0	0.69	1	28%	0
WSH J. Carlson	2.0	4	0.64	1	11%	1
WSH A. Beauvillier	1.9	2	0.34	1	15%	0
WSH R. Leonard	1.9	2	0.37	0	15%	0
WPG J. Morrissey	1.9	1	0.73	1	15%	0
WSH C. McMichael	1.8	6	0.49	1	20%	1
WSH D. Strome	1.8	0	0.85	0	25%	0
WSH A. Protas	1.8	3	0.61	0	20%	0
WPG C. Perfetti	1.8	2	0.53	0	19%	0
WPG N. Niederreiter	1.5	1	0.39	0	18%	0
WPG J. Toews	1.4	2	0.43	0	16%	0
WPG D. Samberg	1.4	1	0.25	0	5%	0
WSH M. Roy	1.3	0	0.29	1	5%	0
WSH J. Sourdif	1.3	1	0.29	0	14%	0
WPG A. Lowry	1.3	1	0.34	0	15%	0
WPG V. Namestnikov	1.2	0	0.40	0	15%	0
WPG A. Iafallo	1.2	2	0.28	0	13%	0
WPG M. Barron	1.2	2	0.24	0	11%	0
WSH E. Frank	1.1	2	0.34	1	13%	0
WPG T. Pearson	1.1	0	0.25	0	11%	0
WPG C. Miller	1.1	1	0.19	0	5%	0
WSH R. Sandin	1.0	2	0.35	0	6%	0
WSH M. Fehérváry	1.0	1	0.28	0	6%	0
WPG G. Nyquist	1.0	1	0.36	0	12%	0
WPG D. DeMelo	0.9	0	0.29	1	5%	0
WPG L. Stanley	0.9	0	0.23	0	4%	0
WSH S. Milano	0.9	1	0.28	1	13%	0
WSH H. Lapierre	0.8	0	0.26	0	7%	0
WSH B. Duhaime	0.7	0	0.19	0	9%	0
WSH D. McIlrath	0.6	0	0.14	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 25 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.