Game Recap: WSH 7, ANA 4, March 11, 2025

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Game Recap

WSH7

FinalTue, Mar 11, 2025Every game that night

ANA4

WSH beat ANA 7-4, and the chances backed it up: 5.73 expected goals to 3.59. WSH outshot ANA 43 to 29. A. Protas scored three for WSH. A. Protas had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. L. Thompson stopped 25 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
WSH	2	1	4	7
ANA	2	0	2	4

1st 2:07WSHD. Strome0.15 xG
1st 4:51ANAJ. Trouba0.23 xG
1st 5:20ANAD. Helleson0.03 xG
1st 18:14WSHA. Protas0.10 xG
2nd 5:19WSHP. Dubois0.09 xG
3rd 4:26ANAP. Mintyukov0.01 xG
3rd 4:57WSHA. Protas0.10 xG
3rd 6:18ANAF. Vatrano0.18 xG
3rd 13:25WSHN. Dowd0.53 xG
3rd 18:24WSHA. Beauvillier0.20 xG
3rd 19:43WSHA. ProtasEN0.94 xG

Team Stats

WSHANA

43Shots on goal29

5.73Expected goals3.59

82Shot attempts65

415v5 shots on goal22

0/1Power play0/2

9Hits22

17Blocked shots18

4Penalty minutes2

12Giveaways13

3Takeaways1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WSH 5.73 xGANA 3.59 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WSH43 on goal, 7 scored

ANA28 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
P. Dubois	C	1	2	3	4	0	1	+3	0	18:33	0:44
A. Protas	LW	3	0	3	6	1	0	+4	0	18:09	0:00
A. Ovechkin	LW	0	3	3	3	0	0	+2	0	16:54	2:00
T. Wilson	RW	0	2	2	1	0	1	+1	0	15:21	1:08
B. Duhaime	LW	0	2	2	1	0	1	+1	0	11:32	0:00
C. McMichael	LW	0	1	1	5	0	1	+2	0	17:28	0:52
N. Dowd	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	0	15:56	0:00
D. Strome	C	1	0	1	3	0	1	0	0	15:12	1:08
A. Beauvillier	RW	1	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	12:19	0:00
A. Mangiapane	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	13:13	0:52
T. Raddysh	RW	0	0	0	4	0	1	-2	2	12:33	1:16
L. Eller	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	10:44	0:00
M. Roy	D	0	1	1	2	0	3	+4	0	22:58	0:00
J. Carlson	D	0	1	1	2	0	3	+1	0	20:25	1:20
J. Chychrun	D	0	1	1	6	0	0	+1	0	19:05	0:40
R. Sandin	D	0	1	1	1	1	3	+1	0	18:28	0:00
M. Fehérváry	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	+1	0	19:49	0:00
T. van Riemsdyk	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	2	17:21	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Thompson	29	25	4	.862	60:00	Win
C. Lindgren	0	0	0	–	0:00

ANA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
F. Vatrano	RW	1	1	2	2	0	0	-1	0	18:22	2:04
T. Terry	RW	0	1	1	0	0	1	-1	0	19:59	2:12
R. Strome	C	0	1	1	5	0	0	0	0	18:51	1:49
T. Zegras	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	-2	0	14:39	1:56
L. Carlsson	C	0	1	1	2	2	1	-2	0	12:59	1:48
C. Gauthier	LW	0	1	1	3	1	1	0	0	12:16	0:00
M. McTavish	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	2	16:43	2:11
A. Killorn	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-3	0	15:53	2:04
I. Lundestrom	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	14:06	0:00
J. Harkins	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	13:57	0:00
R. Johnston	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	13:41	0:00
S. Colangelo	RW	0	0	0	2	3	0	-1	0	12:40	1:25
D. Helleson	D	1	1	2	2	2	3	+2	0	14:46	0:00
P. Mintyukov	D	1	1	2	2	0	1	+2	0	14:14	0:00
J. Trouba	D	1	0	1	2	3	3	-2	0	23:33	0:31
J. LaCombe	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	-3	0	23:05	1:56
O. Zellweger	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-2	0	21:23	2:04
R. Gudas	D	0	0	0	0	3	3	-2	0	18:16	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Dostal	42	36	6	.857	58:37	Loss
V. Husso	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WSH 3.2, ANA 2.6	WSH 7, ANA 4
Total goals	5.9	11
Shots on goal	WSH 28.7, ANA 26.4	WSH 43, ANA 29
Win chance	WSH 59%	WSH won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WSH A. Ovechkin	3.4	3	0.89	3	38%	0
ANA F. Vatrano	2.8	2	0.60	2	27%	1
WSH J. Chychrun	2.5	6	0.56	1	17%	0
WSH T. Wilson	2.3	1	0.72	2	30%	0
WSH J. Carlson	2.2	2	0.64	1	12%	0
WSH A. Beauvillier	2.0	1	0.37	1	16%	1
ANA T. Terry	2.0	0	0.70	1	25%	0
WSH C. McMichael	2.0	5	0.59	1	24%	0
ANA M. McTavish	2.0	1	0.61	0	23%	0
ANA T. Zegras	1.9	1	0.59	1	21%	0
WSH A. Protas	1.9	6	0.66	3	20%	3
WSH P. Dubois	1.9	4	0.74	3	25%	1
WSH D. Strome	1.9	3	0.85	1	26%	1
ANA C. Gauthier	1.8	3	0.42	1	15%	0
ANA J. LaCombe	1.8	0	0.49	0	11%	0
ANA A. Killorn	1.8	3	0.52	0	23%	0
ANA O. Zellweger	1.6	1	0.27	0	8%	0
ANA R. Strome	1.6	5	0.52	1	16%	0
ANA S. Colangelo	1.5	2	0.39	0	20%	0
ANA J. Trouba	1.4	2	0.25	1	6%	1
WSH M. Roy	1.4	2	0.35	1	6%	0
ANA L. Carlsson	1.4	2	0.46	1	19%	0
WSH L. Eller	1.4	1	0.30	0	14%	0
ANA R. Gudas	1.3	0	0.24	0	5%	0
WSH M. Fehérváry	1.1	0	0.28	0	8%	0
WSH T. Raddysh	1.1	4	0.30	0	12%	0
WSH A. Mangiapane	1.1	2	0.36	0	16%	0
ANA D. Helleson	1.0	2	0.20	2	7%	1
WSH B. Duhaime	1.0	1	0.21	2	10%	0
WSH R. Sandin	1.0	1	0.35	1	6%	0
WSH N. Dowd	1.0	1	0.35	1	17%	1
WSH T. Riemsdyk	1.0	0	0.22	0	3%	0
ANA J. Harkins	0.9	2	0.17	0	8%	0
ANA P. Mintyukov	0.9	2	0.23	2	5%	1
ANA I. Lundestrom	0.8	1	0.24	0	10%	0
ANA R. Johnston	0.4	0	0.10	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.