Game Recap: WSH 3, BUF 4 (SO), November 1, 2025

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

WSH3

Final/SOSat, Nov 1, 2025Every game that night

BUF4

BUF beat WSH 4-3 in a shootout, with the chances close: 2.66 expected goals to 2.75. WSH outshot BUF 34 to 24. D. Strome had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. U. Luukkonen stopped 31 of 34.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
WSH	2	1	0	0	3
BUF	3	0	0	1	4

1st 1:07WSHD. Strome0.20 xG
1st 2:15WSHA. Protas0.13 xG
1st 2:30BUFT. Thompson0.16 xG
1st 10:02BUFA. Tuch0.14 xG
1st 18:45BUFI. Rosen0.10 xG
2nd 19:17WSHS. Milano0.06 xG

Team Stats

WSHBUF

34Shots on goal24

2.75Expected goals2.66

66Shot attempts53

235v5 shots on goal15

0/4Power play0/3

17Hits22

13Blocked shots13

25Penalty minutes17

14Giveaways16

4Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WSH 2.75 xGBUF 2.66 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WSH34 on goal, 3 scored

BUF24 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Strome	C	1	0	1	6	0	0	+1	0	22:13	5:20
A. Protas	LW	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	0	18:25	0:00
C. McMichael	LW	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	16:48	2:31
T. Wilson	RW	0	1	1	1	4	0	+1	19	15:32	4:40
R. Leonard	RW	0	1	1	1	1	1	+1	4	12:14	3:17
S. Milano	LW	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	9:07	2:36
A. Ovechkin	LW	0	0	0	3	2	0	-1	0	19:15	6:43
A. Beauvillier	RW	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	0	17:27	0:04
N. Dowd	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	16:41	0:07
B. Duhaime	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	14:13	0:00
J. Sourdif	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	13:02	0:00
H. Lapierre	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	9:27	1:03
M. Roy	D	0	1	1	3	2	4	+1	0	19:44	0:09
M. Fehérváry	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	17:55	0:00
J. Carlson	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	28:05	5:24
J. Chychrun	D	0	0	0	5	0	1	+1	0	27:21	5:19
T. van Riemsdyk	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	-1	0	16:00	0:11
D. Chisholm	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	13:39	2:36

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Lindgren	24	21	3	.875	64:52	OT loss
L. Thompson	0	0	0	–	0:00

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Tuch	RW	1	0	1	2	0	2	0	4	20:14	2:05
T. Thompson	C	1	0	1	4	0	2	+1	0	19:23	3:58
J. Quinn	RW	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	16:23	2:10
J. Doan	RW	0	1	1	2	2	0	0	0	15:32	3:53
J. Zucker	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	15:07	3:53
I. Rosen	RW	1	0	1	3	2	2	0	0	14:44	3:48
J. Greenway	LW	0	1	1	0	4	0	+1	7	13:28	0:00
R. McLeod	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	18:05	1:24
P. Krebs	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	2	15:08	0:06
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	0	0	1	3	1	-1	2	12:42	0:00
J. Dunne	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	11:51	0:00
J.Kulich	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	11:19	0:39
O. Power	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	19:54	2:06
C. Timmins	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	17:47	0:03
R. Dahlin	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	26:12	3:54
M. Samuelsson	D	0	0	0	5	4	2	-1	0	20:22	0:00
B. Byram	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	2	18:54	2:01
M. Kesselring	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	18:27	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
U. Luukkonen	34	31	3	.912	64:28	Win
A. Lyon	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

WSH

Line 1D. Strome12:18A. Beauvillier15:46A. Ovechkin10:57

Line 2N. Dowd12:17B. Duhaime11:08J. Sourdif12:48

Line 3C. McMichael10:46A. Protas13:34T. Wilson6:46

Line 4S. Milano6:23H. Lapierre8:17R. Leonard8:57

Pair 1T. Riemsdyk12:56D. Chisholm9:45

Pair 2J. Carlson16:48J. Chychrun17:06

Pair 3M. Roy15:39M. Fehérváry14:29

BUF

Line 1P. Krebs13:46J. Dunne11:39B. Malenstyn9:25

Line 2A. Tuch12:17R. McLeod10:36J. Doan10:54

Line 3J. Zucker11:01T. Thompson10:35J. Greenway7:59

Line 4J. Quinn10:47I. Rosen10:06J.Kulich10:39

Pair 1M. Samuelsson13:48R. Dahlin17:26

Pair 2B. Byram15:44M. Kesselring14:32

Pair 3C. Timmins11:49O. Power13:37

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamAlex Tuch WSH First game back in Buffalo, his team until May 20261 G, 2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WSH 3.1, BUF 3.3	WSH 3, BUF 4
Total goals	6.4	7
Shots on goal	WSH 26.5, BUF 28.7	WSH 34, BUF 24
Win chance	BUF 53%	BUF won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BUF T. Thompson	3.5	4	0.95	1	40%	1
WSH A. Ovechkin	3.2	3	0.92	0	37%	0
BUF R. Dahlin	2.7	0	0.74	0	18%	0
WSH J. Chychrun	2.5	5	0.58	0	19%	0
BUF A. Tuch	2.3	2	0.78	1	29%	1
BUF J. Doan	2.3	2	0.56	1	21%	0
BUF J.Kulich	2.3	1	0.49	0	23%	0
WSH T. Wilson	2.1	1	0.76	1	29%	0
WSH J. Carlson	2.1	1	0.63	0	12%	0
WSH A. Protas	2.0	2	0.76	1	23%	1
BUF J. Zucker	2.0	1	0.56	1	22%	0
WSH C. McMichael	1.9	2	0.55	1	22%	0
WSH A. Beauvillier	1.9	4	0.35	0	15%	0
WSH R. Leonard	1.7	1	0.31	1	14%	0
BUF J. Quinn	1.6	0	0.52	1	19%	0
BUF M. Kesselring	1.6	0	0.28	0	7%	0
BUF O. Power	1.6	0	0.40	1	8%	0
WSH D. Strome	1.5	6	0.73	1	22%	1
BUF R. McLeod	1.3	3	0.57	0	20%	0
WSH M. Roy	1.2	3	0.29	1	6%	0
BUF J. Greenway	1.2	0	0.26	1	11%	0
BUF B. Byram	1.1	0	0.41	0	11%	0
BUF C. Timmins	1.1	1	0.30	1	5%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	1.1	1	0.18	0	8%	0
WSH M. Fehérváry	1.1	1	0.30	1	7%	0
BUF I. Rosen	1.0	3	0.14	1	8%	1
WSH N. Dowd	1.0	1	0.32	0	15%	0
BUF P. Krebs	1.0	0	0.30	0	10%	0
WSH J. Sourdif	1.0	1	0.21	0	13%	0
BUF M. Samuelsson	1.0	5	0.25	0	6%	0
WSH S. Milano	1.0	1	0.34	1	14%	1
WSH H. Lapierre	0.9	1	0.34	0	10%	0
WSH B. Duhaime	0.9	0	0.24	0	11%	0
WSH D. Chisholm	0.8	0	0.16	0	4%	0
BUF J. Dunne	0.8	1	0.15	0	10%	0
WSH T. Riemsdyk	0.7	1	0.18	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.