Game Recap: WSH 2, BUF 1, March 12, 2026

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Game Recap

WSH2

FinalThu, Mar 12, 2026Every game that night

BUF1

WSH beat BUF 2-1, with the chances close: 3.13 expected goals to 3.16. BUF outshot WSH 30 to 22. C. Lindgren stopped 29 of 30.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
WSH	0	1	1	2
BUF	1	0	0	1

1st 6:02BUFS. Carrick0.08 xG
2nd 2:14WSHR. Leonard0.11 xG
3rd 18:27WSHJ. Chychrun0.14 xG

Team Stats

WSHBUF

22Shots on goal30

3.13Expected goals3.16

51Shot attempts67

185v5 shots on goal25

0/2Power play0/2

22Hits24

17Blocked shots11

4Penalty minutes4

14Giveaways12

9Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WSH 3.13 xGBUF 3.16 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WSH22 on goal, 2 scored

BUF30 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Protas	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	16:31	1:17
R. Leonard	RW	1	0	1	1	1	0	+2	0	13:46	1:15
T. Wilson	RW	0	0	0	4	2	0	0	0	20:34	2:43
P. Dubois	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	19:41	2:57
D. Strome	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	15:25	2:45
J. Sourdif	C	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	14:50	0:03
C. McMichael	LW	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	2	14:15	0:55
A. Beauvillier	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	14:07	0:00
A. Ovechkin	LW	0	0	0	2	1	2	-1	0	14:03	3:38
H. Lapierre	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	13:17	0:00
B. Duhaime	LW	0	0	0	0	3	5	0	0	12:17	0:00
E. Frank	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	10:30	0:00
J. Chychrun	D	1	0	1	1	0	1	+2	0	20:25	2:43
T. van Riemsdyk	D	0	1	1	3	0	1	+1	0	19:00	0:00
M. Roy	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	21:46	0:27
M. Fehérváry	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	19:56	0:00
R. Sandin	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	19:47	1:17
T. Liljegren	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	0	15:50	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Lindgren	30	29	1	.967	60:00	Win
L. Thompson	0	0	0	–	0:00

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Carrick	C	1	0	1	2	1	1	+1	0	10:51	0:00
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	1	1	1	3	0	+1	0	10:25	0:00
T. Thompson	C	0	0	0	5	2	0	0	0	22:04	3:31
R. McLeod	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	17:26	0:29
Z. Benson	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	17:15	0:27
J. Zucker	LW	0	0	0	3	5	1	-1	0	17:07	3:34
N. Ostlund	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	16:49	0:25
J. Quinn	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	16:19	0:30
J. Norris	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	15:45	3:31
J. Doan	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	14:42	3:32
P. Krebs	C	0	0	0	1	4	1	-1	0	13:44	0:00
T. Pearson	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	+1	2	8:58	0:00
O. Power	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	21:29	0:00
R. Dahlin	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	23:28	3:42
B. Byram	D	0	0	0	3	1	2	0	0	23:02	0:19
M. Samuelsson	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	20:30	0:00
L. Schenn	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	14:31	0:00
L. Stanley	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	2	13:02	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
U. Luukkonen	22	20	2	.909	58:33	Loss
C. Ellis	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

WSH

Line 1P. Dubois15:04T. Wilson14:44H. Lapierre13:17

Line 2D. Strome12:40A. Protas13:06R. Leonard12:31

Line 3A. Beauvillier12:33J. Sourdif14:32A. Ovechkin10:25

Line 4C. McMichael11:09E. Frank10:30B. Duhaime10:49

Pair 1T. Riemsdyk16:47M. Fehérváry17:39

Pair 2M. Roy18:02R. Sandin16:21

Pair 3J. Chychrun16:46T. Liljegren15:50

BUF

Line 1T. Thompson17:05N. Ostlund16:13Z. Benson15:06

Line 2R. McLeod13:29J. Quinn14:22J. Zucker12:06

Line 3J. Norris12:14J. Doan11:10P. Krebs13:35

Line 4S. Carrick9:07T. Pearson8:58B. Malenstyn8:15

Pair 1B. Byram19:15O. Power19:44

Pair 2R. Dahlin18:18M. Samuelsson18:16

Pair 3L. Schenn12:30L. Stanley13:02

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WSH 3.2, BUF 3.6	WSH 2, BUF 1
Total goals	6.8	3
Shots on goal	WSH 27.9, BUF 28.9	WSH 22, BUF 30
Win chance	BUF 57%	WSH won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BUF T. Thompson	3.4	5	1.04	0	40%	0
WSH A. Ovechkin	3.0	2	0.77	0	34%	0
WSH J. Chychrun	2.8	1	0.65	1	20%	1
BUF R. Dahlin	2.4	2	0.87	0	19%	0
BUF J. Doan	2.2	3	0.65	0	24%	0
WSH T. Wilson	2.2	4	0.74	0	30%	0
BUF J. Quinn	2.1	1	0.62	0	20%	0
BUF J. Zucker	2.1	3	0.67	0	25%	0
WSH A. Protas	2.0	1	0.65	1	23%	0
WSH A. Beauvillier	2.0	1	0.35	0	16%	0
WSH R. Leonard	1.9	1	0.47	1	17%	1
WSH D. Strome	1.9	1	0.75	0	24%	0
WSH C. McMichael	1.8	2	0.50	0	20%	0
WSH P. Dubois	1.8	1	0.60	0	21%	0
BUF O. Power	1.7	0	0.45	1	9%	0
BUF J. Norris	1.6	2	0.67	0	28%	0
WSH J. Sourdif	1.6	0	0.45	0	18%	0
BUF L. Stanley	1.5	1	0.44	0	11%	0
BUF Z. Benson	1.5	1	0.42	0	13%	0
BUF R. McLeod	1.4	1	0.72	0	20%	0
WSH E. Frank	1.4	0	0.35	0	16%	0
BUF M. Samuelsson	1.4	1	0.43	0	10%	0
BUF B. Byram	1.3	3	0.52	0	13%	0
WSH M. Roy	1.2	1	0.26	0	5%	0
WSH R. Sandin	1.2	1	0.35	0	6%	0
BUF N. Ostlund	1.2	0	0.46	0	17%	0
BUF T. Pearson	1.2	3	0.29	0	12%	0
BUF P. Krebs	1.1	1	0.39	0	11%	0
WSH T. Liljegren	1.0	1	0.23	0	5%	0
WSH M. Fehérváry	1.0	1	0.29	0	6%	0
BUF S. Carrick	0.9	2	0.19	1	8%	1
BUF B. Malenstyn	0.8	1	0.16	1	8%	0
WSH B. Duhaime	0.8	0	0.15	0	8%	0
BUF L. Schenn	0.8	0	0.14	0	3%	0
WSH H. Lapierre	0.7	1	0.21	0	7%	0
WSH T. Riemsdyk	0.7	3	0.18	1	3%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.