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Game Recap
WSH4
CAR1
WSH beat CAR 4-1 despite fewer good chances: 2.92 expected goals to 4.07. A. Ovechkin led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). R. Leonard had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. L. Thompson stopped 30 of 31.
Team Stats
WSHCAR
28Shots on goal31
2.92Expected goals4.07
48Shot attempts69
165v5 shots on goal23
1/5Power play0/5
13Hits22
21Blocked shots10
17Penalty minutes15
24Giveaways18
7Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
WSH 2.92 xGCAR 4.07 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
WSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Ovechkin | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 14:48 | 5:22 |
| N. Dowd | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 17:27 | 0:10 |
| B. Duhaime | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | +1 | 0 | 16:40 | 0:03 |
| D. Strome | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:12 | 5:25 |
| A. Beauvillier | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 14:53 | 1:59 |
| E. Frank | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 12:37 | 2:57 |
| R. Leonard | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:19 | 3:31 |
| T. Wilson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:02 | 4:01 |
| C. McMichael | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 18:06 | 1:56 |
| A. Protas | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:33 | 0:00 |
| J. Sourdif | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 7:18 | 0:00 |
| H. Lapierre | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 6:28 | 0:00 |
| J. Carlson | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | +2 | 0 | 22:51 | 4:41 |
| J. Chychrun | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 4 | 19:09 | 4:10 |
| M. Roy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 25:15 | 0:22 |
| R. Sandin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 19:09 | 2:55 |
| M. Fehérváry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 7 | 17:11 | 0:08 |
| D. Chisholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:02 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Thompson | 31 | 30 | 1 | .968 | 60:00 | Win |
| C. Lindgren | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Blake | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:22 | 4:13 |
| N. Ehlers | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:09 | 5:45 |
| S. Aho | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:57 | 4:49 |
| S. Jarvis | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 17:21 | 6:07 |
| T. Hall | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:00 | 4:06 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:02 | 0:00 |
| J. Staal | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:33 | 0:19 |
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:12 | 4:43 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:11 | 2:02 |
| L. Stankoven | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 14:07 | 1:08 |
| J. Kotkaniemi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:29 | 0:00 |
| W. Carrier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:41 | 0:03 |
| S. Gostisbehere | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:00 | 4:59 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 23:02 | 3:49 |
| K. Miller | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 4 | 21:24 | 1:47 |
| A. Nikishin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 20:43 | 1:07 |
| J. Nystrom | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:48 | 0:10 |
| M. Reilly | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 13:58 | 0:11 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Andersen | 27 | 24 | 3 | .889 | 54:50 | Loss |
| P. Kochetkov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 3:36 |
Lines at 5-on-5
WSH
Line 1T. Wilson14:16C. McMichael12:08A. Protas14:07
Line 2N. Dowd12:42B. Duhaime11:25E. Frank9:40
Line 3D. Strome10:15A. Beauvillier11:56A. Ovechkin8:39
Line 4J. Sourdif7:18H. Lapierre6:28R. Leonard5:48
Pair 1M. Roy19:48J. Chychrun12:58
Pair 2R. Sandin11:35D. Chisholm13:08
Pair 3J. Carlson11:04M. Fehérváry15:00
CAR
Line 1J. Staal10:57J. Martinook11:49W. Carrier9:38
Line 2T. Hall12:03E. Robinson10:38J. Kotkaniemi9:47
Line 3L. Stankoven11:01J. Blake11:09N. Ehlers8:23
Line 4A. Svechnikov10:29S. Aho9:48S. Jarvis8:42
Pair 2S. Gostisbehere14:29A. Nikishin14:37
Pair 3M. Reilly11:29J. Nystrom11:45
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | WSH 2.8, CAR 3.2 | WSH 4, CAR 1 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | WSH 24.0, CAR 30.4 | WSH 28, CAR 31 |
| Win chance | CAR 57% | WSH won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH A. Ovechkin | 2.9 | 2 | 0.84 | 2 | 35% | 1 |
| CAR S. Jarvis | 2.6 | 2 | 0.83 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| CAR N. Ehlers | 2.5 | 4 | 0.73 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.5 | 0 | 0.94 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.3 | 5 | 0.71 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 2.3 | 3 | 0.36 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| WSH J. Chychrun | 2.2 | 5 | 0.52 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| WSH A. Beauvillier | 2.0 | 3 | 0.36 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| CAR L. Stankoven | 1.9 | 0 | 0.47 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| WSH T. Wilson | 1.9 | 2 | 0.66 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| CAR J. Blake | 1.8 | 4 | 0.47 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| WSH D. Strome | 1.8 | 1 | 0.82 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| CAR M. Reilly | 1.8 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| WSH A. Protas | 1.8 | 1 | 0.61 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CAR T. Hall | 1.7 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| WSH C. McMichael | 1.7 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CAR A. Nikishin | 1.6 | 4 | 0.45 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR K. Miller | 1.6 | 2 | 0.45 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WSH J. Carlson | 1.5 | 1 | 0.52 | 2 | 10% | 0 |
| WSH R. Leonard | 1.5 | 5 | 0.31 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| CAR J. Nystrom | 1.5 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.4 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.3 | 3 | 0.37 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CAR W. Carrier | 1.2 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 1.2 | 1 | 0.45 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.1 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CAR J. Kotkaniemi | 1.1 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WSH M. Roy | 1.0 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WSH N. Dowd | 0.9 | 1 | 0.28 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| WSH E. Frank | 0.9 | 0 | 0.26 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| WSH H. Lapierre | 0.8 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| WSH J. Sourdif | 0.8 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| WSH M. Fehérváry | 0.8 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WSH B. Duhaime | 0.8 | 1 | 0.20 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| WSH R. Sandin | 0.7 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WSH D. Chisholm | 0.6 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.