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Game Recap
WSH5
FinalFri, Oct 2, 2026Every game that night
CAR2

WSH beat CAR 5-2, with the chances close: 3.23 expected goals to 3.53. A. Tuch led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). A. Svechnikov had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. L. Thompson stopped 31 of 33.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
WSH3205
CAR0112
  1. 1st 6:33WSHA. Tuch0.24 xG
  2. 1st 11:33WSHC. Hutson0.14 xG
  3. 1st 14:23WSHA. Tuch0.54 xG
  4. 2nd 1:36WSHJ. ChychrunPP0.03 xG
  5. 2nd 16:50CARS. AhoPP0.19 xG
  6. 2nd 16:58WSHR. Leonard0.21 xG
  7. 3rd 10:50CARL. Stankoven0.10 xG

Team Stats

WSHCAR
27Shots on goal33
3.23Expected goals3.53
42Shot attempts81
225v5 shots on goal16
1/2Power play1/6
19Hits32
28Blocked shots9
14Penalty minutes18
17Giveaways11
3Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WSH 3.23 xGCAR 3.53 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.541st2nd3rdWSH goal, 6:33WSH goal, 11:33WSH goal, 14:23WSH goal, 1:36CAR goal, 16:50WSH goal, 16:58CAR goal, 10:50

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WSH26 on goal, 5 scored
CAR33 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WSH Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
A. TuchRW202311+2016:380:37
D. StromeC0222010013:111:50
P. DuboisC022111+2412:081:50
A. ProtasLW011201+1017:360:00
T. WilsonRW011033+1016:371:50
A. OvechkinLW011111+1012:461:50
R. LeonardRW101321+1012:080:37
I. ProtasLW011000+1011:320:37
B. JennerC0003020016:180:00
A. BeauvillierRW0003100013:550:00
J. SourdifC0000000213:000:00
J. KyrouRW0002000012:160:37
J. ChychrunD112301+1218:511:50
C. HutsonD101312+2417:080:37
M. RoyD0000350022:290:00
V. DesharnaisD000033+2021:150:00
M. FehérváryD0001150219:290:00
T. LiljegrenD000021+1018:480:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
L. Thompson33312.93959:53Win
C. Lindgren000–0:00

CAR Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
L. StankovenC101420-1020:155:08
A. SvechnikovRW0116210019:517:35
J. BlakeRW011300-1019:279:05
S. AhoC1012000218:397:30
W. CarrierLW0111400011:300:00
N. EhlersLW000410-2019:025:40
J. StaalC000340-1014:543:19
T. HallLW000111-2213:343:45
J. MartinookLW0002300012:470:00
M. JankowskiLW000021-1012:351:03
E. RobinsonLW0000200011:440:00
N. DeslauriersLW000070-109:250:00
K. MillerD011012-1022:114:08
S. GostisbehereD000000-1022:407:12
S. WalkerD000210-2219:052:15
J. SlavinD0004010018:320:00
J. ChatfieldD000002-2017:330:00
C. LegaultD00012101211:070:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
B. Bussi27225.81560:00Loss
P. Kochetkov000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

WSH

Line 1B. Jenner11:35A. Beauvillier12:21J. Sourdif12:04
Line 2I. Protas10:52J. Kyrou10:25A. Protas11:33
Line 3D. Strome9:50R. Leonard10:52A. Ovechkin9:57
Line 4A. Tuch10:38P. Dubois10:18T. Wilson9:21
Pair 1M. Roy14:11J. Chychrun14:54
Pair 2V. Desharnais15:09C. Hutson14:55
Pair 3M. Fehérváry13:30T. Liljegren14:35

CAR

Line 1J. Staal10:34J. Martinook11:44W. Carrier11:30
Line 2N. Deslauriers9:21M. Jankowski10:09E. Robinson10:21
Line 3T. Hall9:18J. Blake9:20L. Stankoven13:59
Line 4N. Ehlers12:43A. Svechnikov11:23
Pair 1J. Slavin16:06J. Chatfield15:16
Pair 2S. Walker14:54K. Miller15:56
Pair 3S. Gostisbehere13:45C. Legault11:03

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

7 of 13 overs hit (54%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
WSH A. Ovechkin2.5-114+1001Under
CAR A. Svechnikov2.5+110-1256Over
WSH A. Tuch2.5+130-1703Over
CAR J. Blake2.5+120-1503Over
WSH J. Kyrou2.5+148-1962Under
CAR N. Ehlers2.5+125-1554Over
CAR S. Aho2.5+108-1252Under
WSH J. Chychrun1.5-165+1403Over
CAR J. Staal1.5-110-1153Over
CAR L. Stankoven1.5-185+1404Over
CAR S. Gostisbehere1.5-120+1000Under
CAR T. Hall1.5-148+1201Under
WSH T. Wilson1.5-125+1000Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreWSH 2.7, CAR 3.4WSH 5, CAR 2
Total goals6.27
Shots on goalWSH 22.5, CAR 31.5WSH 27, CAR 33
Win chanceCAR 61%WSH won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
CAR N. Ehlers2.740.90029%0
WSH A. Ovechkin2.610.65129%0
CAR L. Stankoven2.540.63124%1
CAR S. Aho2.520.89130%1
CAR A. Svechnikov2.560.73126%0
WSH A. Tuch2.430.67228%2
CAR J. Blake2.330.68123%0
CAR T. Hall2.210.65021%0
WSH J. Kyrou1.920.53022%0
CAR S. Walker1.920.3209%0
WSH R. Leonard1.830.45117%1
WSH J. Chychrun1.730.48215%1
CAR J. Staal1.730.49019%0
WSH B. Jenner1.730.43019%0
WSH T. Wilson1.700.59124%0
WSH A. Beauvillier1.630.33015%0
WSH A. Protas1.620.54119%0
CAR J. Martinook1.620.38014%0
CAR J. Slavin1.540.3208%0
CAR S. Gostisbehere1.500.56012%0
CAR J. Chatfield1.500.2808%0
CAR K. Miller1.400.45110%0
WSH D. Strome1.420.61220%0
CAR E. Robinson1.300.29012%0
WSH J. Sourdif1.300.39015%0
WSH P. Dubois1.210.47216%0
WSH C. Hutson1.230.4217%1
CAR C. Legault1.010.1806%0
CAR W. Carrier1.010.2019%0
CAR M. Jankowski0.900.28013%0
WSH M. Roy0.800.2104%0
WSH T. Liljegren0.800.2105%0
CAR N. Deslauriers0.700.0905%0
WSH M. Fehérváry0.710.2405%0
WSH V. Desharnais0.600.1102%0

Shots on goal: 17 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.