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Game Recap
WSH2
FinalTue, Oct 13, 2026Every game that night
CAR4

CAR beat WSH 4-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.44 expected goals to 2.67. CAR outshot WSH 35 to 22. A. Svechnikov led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). E. Robinson had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. P. Kochetkov stopped 20 of 22.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
WSH1102
CAR0224
  1. 1st 9:26WSHB. Jenner0.15 xG
  2. 2nd 3:58CARA. Svechnikov0.82 xG
  3. 2nd 6:39WSHJ. Holl0.09 xG
  4. 2nd 18:49CARE. Robinson0.04 xG
  5. 3rd 13:56CARA. SvechnikovPP0.16 xG
  6. 3rd 18:33CARM. JankowskiEN0.93 xG

Team Stats

WSHCAR
22Shots on goal35
2.67Expected goals4.44
47Shot attempts76
185v5 shots on goal28
0/2Power play1/5
16Hits25
21Blocked shots12
12Penalty minutes8
19Giveaways11
2Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WSH 2.67 xGCAR 4.44 xGGoal

012341st2nd3rdWSH goal, 9:26CAR goal, 3:58WSH goal, 6:39CAR goal, 18:49CAR goal, 13:56CAR goal, 18:33

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WSH22 on goal, 2 scored
CAR35 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WSH Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
R. LeonardRW022211+1413:092:36
D. StromeC011101-1018:182:34
B. JennerC101200-1016:010:00
T. WilsonRW000012-2019:122:15
A. TuchRW000101-2018:501:26
A. ProtasLW0002000015:570:03
I. ProtasLW0003110013:031:24
A. OvechkinLW0002000013:022:31
A. BeauvillierRW0002100012:020:00
J. SourdifC0001200211:290:00
J. KyrouRW0001010010:471:05
E. FrankRW0001000010:151:03
J. HollD101101+1012:050:00
M. FehérváryD000042-1024:330:12
J. ChychrunD000204-1422:192:11
V. DesharnaisD000141+1020:050:00
C. HutsonD0000110219:121:35
T. LiljegrenD000015-1018:520:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
L. Thompson34313.91258:42Loss
C. Lindgren000–0:00

CAR Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
A. SvechnikovRW213510+2221:296:16
S. AhoC022320+2021:296:12
N. EhlersLW011100-1019:456:17
J. BlakeRW011100+1218:205:37
M. JankowskiLW1012000015:521:52
E. RobinsonLW101440+1014:491:02
W. CarrierLW011451+1213:370:00
L. StankovenC0000100015:301:50
J. MartinookLW000110-2013:030:00
J. KotkaniemiC000130-1011:140:27
N. DeslauriersLW000130029:160:00
T. HallLW000010004:170:11
S. WalkerD011015-1021:261:20
K. MillerD000331-1022:591:55
J. SlavinD000204+2020:470:00
S. GostisbehereD0002000018:576:12
J. ChatfieldD000200+2018:380:00
M. ReillyD0003010010:320:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
P. Kochetkov22202.90960:00Win
B. Bussi000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

WSH

Line 1T. Wilson12:53D. Strome13:40A. Tuch12:09
Line 2A. Protas11:24I. Protas11:16A. Ovechkin9:18
Line 3A. Beauvillier12:02E. Frank9:12J. Sourdif9:39
Line 4B. Jenner11:40J. Kyrou9:17R. Leonard9:12
Pair 1J. Chychrun16:37T. Liljegren14:54
Pair 2C. Hutson15:49M. Fehérváry17:37
Pair 3J. Holl11:11V. Desharnais13:40

CAR

Line 1S. Aho12:01A. Svechnikov12:55W. Carrier13:14
Line 2L. Stankoven12:21J. Blake11:25E. Robinson13:25
Line 3M. Jankowski10:46J. Martinook11:21N. Ehlers11:42
Line 4N. Deslauriers8:58J. Kotkaniemi10:47
Pair 1S. Walker18:11K. Miller18:08
Pair 2J. Slavin15:54J. Chatfield13:58
Pair 3M. Reilly10:32S. Gostisbehere11:56

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

10 of 24 overs hit (42%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
WSH A. Ovechkin2.5+100-1302Under
CAR A. Svechnikov2.5+110-1255Over
CAR J. Blake2.5+114-1351Under
WSH J. Chychrun2.5+125-1602Under
CAR L. Stankoven2.5+132-1700Under
WSH R. Leonard2.5+170-1802Under
CAR S. Aho2.5+120-1253Over
WSH A. Protas1.5+105-1352Over
WSH A. Tuch1.5-190+1401Under
WSH B. Jenner1.5-105-1152Over
WSH C. Hutson1.5-105-1200Under
WSH D. Strome1.5+110-1301Under
CAR J. Chatfield1.5+140-1602Over
WSH J. Kyrou1.5-106-1201Under
CAR J. Martinook1.5+100-1151Under
CAR J. Slavin1.5+125-1552Over
CAR K. Miller1.5+120-1753Over
CAR M. Jankowski1.5+115-1452Over
CAR N. Ehlers1.5-180+1401Under
CAR S. Gostisbehere1.5-120+1052Over
CAR S. Walker1.5-190+1300Under
CAR T. Hall1.5-150+1250Under
WSH T. Wilson1.5-130+1000Under
CAR W. Carrier1.5-105-1204Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreWSH 2.7, CAR 3.4WSH 2, CAR 4
Total goals6.16
Shots on goalWSH 22.3, CAR 32.1WSH 22, CAR 35
Win chanceCAR 62%CAR won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
CAR A. Svechnikov2.550.77327%2
CAR S. Aho2.430.93231%0
CAR L. Stankoven2.400.62025%0
CAR J. Blake2.410.78125%0
WSH A. Tuch2.310.72029%0
CAR N. Ehlers2.310.80126%0
WSH A. Ovechkin2.320.65028%0
CAR T. Hall2.100.61020%0
WSH J. Chychrun2.020.54016%0
CAR S. Walker1.800.3619%0
WSH T. Wilson1.800.70027%0
WSH R. Leonard1.820.46217%0
WSH J. Kyrou1.810.53022%0
WSH B. Jenner1.720.44119%1
CAR S. Gostisbehere1.620.60013%0
WSH D. Strome1.610.71123%0
CAR J. Martinook1.610.38015%0
CAR J. Slavin1.420.3007%0
CAR J. Chatfield1.420.2908%0
CAR K. Miller1.430.45010%0
CAR W. Carrier1.440.32112%0
WSH C. Hutson1.300.3406%0
CAR E. Robinson1.340.32113%1
WSH A. Protas1.320.48018%0
CAR M. Reilly1.330.2004%0
CAR M. Jankowski1.220.40118%1
CAR J. Kotkaniemi1.110.30011%0
WSH A. Beauvillier1.120.22011%0
WSH I. Protas1.030.37011%0
WSH J. Sourdif0.910.31013%0
WSH E. Frank0.910.2209%0
WSH T. Liljegren0.900.2105%0
CAR N. Deslauriers0.710.0905%0
WSH M. Fehérváry0.700.2706%0
WSH V. Desharnais0.510.1302%0

Shots on goal: 21 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.