WSH beat CBJ 2-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.53 expected goals to 2.40. C. Stevenson stopped 27 of 28.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| CBJ | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
- 2nd 0:27CBJB. Jenner0.15 xG
- 2nd 10:46WSHA. Beauvillier0.21 xG
- 3rd 15:53WSHJ. ChychrunPP0.08 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
WSH 3.53 xGCBJ 2.40 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
WSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Ovechkin | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:48 | 5:44 |
| A. Beauvillier | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:50 | 0:03 |
| T. Wilson | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:39 | 1:49 |
| D. Strome | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:42 | 3:56 |
| A. Protas | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:30 | 0:00 |
| C. McMichael | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:26 | 1:47 |
| I. Protas | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:06 | 3:45 |
| J. Sourdif | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:05 | 3:21 |
| R. Leonard | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:05 | 2:26 |
| H. Lapierre | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:18 | 0:01 |
| I. Miroshnichenko | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:36 | 0:00 |
| B. Duhaime | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:01 | 0:00 |
| J. Chychrun | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:05 | 2:29 |
| T. van Riemsdyk | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:03 | 0:00 |
| M. Roy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:58 | 0:15 |
| C. Hutson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:54 | 3:19 |
| M. Fehérváry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:17 | 0:00 |
| D. McIlrath | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:04 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Stevenson | 28 | 27 | 1 | .964 | 59:37 | Win |
| L. Thompson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CBJ Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Marchment | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 16:15 | 1:47 |
| B. Jenner | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 14:12 | 0:00 |
| D. Heinen | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:45 | 0:00 |
| A. Fantilli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:17 | 1:34 |
| K. Marchenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:00 | 1:36 |
| C. Coyle | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:48 | 1:36 |
| I. Lundestrom | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:39 | 0:00 |
| S. Monahan | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:40 | 0:24 |
| C. Sillinger | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:01 | 0:00 |
| C. Garland | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:36 | 0:24 |
| K. Johnson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10:51 | 0:26 |
| M. Wood | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 9:56 | 0:00 |
| Z. Werenski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 25:59 | 1:34 |
| I. Provorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 24:07 | 0:26 |
| D. Fabbro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:35 | 0:00 |
| E. Gudbranson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 18:41 | 0:00 |
| D. Mateychuk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:16 | 0:13 |
| J. Christiansen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:11 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Greaves | 21 | 19 | 2 | .905 | 58:24 | Loss |
| E. Merzlikins | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
WSH
CBJ
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | WSH 3.1, CBJ 3.2 | WSH 2, CBJ 1 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | WSH 26.1, CBJ 29.5 | WSH 21, CBJ 28 |
| Win chance | CBJ 52% | WSH won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ Z. Werenski | 3.3 | 3 | 1.04 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| WSH A. Ovechkin | 2.9 | 4 | 0.81 | 1 | 34% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Marchenko | 2.8 | 4 | 0.87 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| CBJ A. Fantilli | 2.7 | 0 | 0.78 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| WSH J. Chychrun | 2.3 | 1 | 0.58 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| CBJ M. Marchment | 2.0 | 3 | 0.76 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| CBJ B. Jenner | 1.9 | 4 | 0.50 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| CBJ C. Coyle | 1.9 | 2 | 0.70 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| WSH T. Wilson | 1.9 | 2 | 0.71 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| WSH R. Leonard | 1.9 | 2 | 0.50 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| WSH A. Protas | 1.8 | 2 | 0.63 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| WSH A. Beauvillier | 1.8 | 3 | 0.36 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| WSH C. McMichael | 1.7 | 0 | 0.54 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CBJ I. Provorov | 1.6 | 4 | 0.38 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CBJ C. Sillinger | 1.6 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CBJ S. Monahan | 1.6 | 1 | 0.53 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| WSH D. Strome | 1.5 | 2 | 0.70 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| WSH J. Sourdif | 1.4 | 0 | 0.51 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| WSH C. Hutson | 1.4 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CBJ C. Garland | 1.4 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Johnson | 1.3 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Wood | 1.2 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| WSH M. Roy | 1.1 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Mateychuk | 1.1 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Heinen | 1.0 | 1 | 0.33 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Fabbro | 1.0 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CBJ E. Gudbranson | 0.9 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WSH I. Miroshnichenko | 0.9 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| WSH M. Fehérváry | 0.9 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| WSH B. Duhaime | 0.9 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| WSH T. Riemsdyk | 0.9 | 0 | 0.24 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| WSH H. Lapierre | 0.8 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CBJ I. Lundestrom | 0.8 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Christiansen | 0.5 | 1 | 0.08 | 0 | 1% | 0 |
| WSH D. McIlrath | 0.4 | 1 | 0.08 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.