WSH beat CGY 3-1, with the chances close: 2.69 expected goals to 2.53. CGY outshot WSH 33 to 23. R. Andersson had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. L. Thompson stopped 32 of 33.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| CGY | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
- 1st 1:51WSHP. Dubois0.05 xG
- 2nd 12:17CGYB. ColemanPP0.11 xG
- 2nd 15:12WSHD. StromePP0.18 xG
- 3rd 17:35WSHA. Protas0.17 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
WSH 2.69 xGCGY 2.53 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
WSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Protas | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 17:51 | 0:11 |
| D. Strome | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:56 | 5:12 |
| L. Eller | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:46 | 0:11 |
| P. Dubois | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 11:25 | 0:46 |
| N. Dowd | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:10 | 0:00 |
| T. Wilson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 17:25 | 4:13 |
| A. Ovechkin | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:47 | 5:58 |
| B. Duhaime | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:29 | 0:00 |
| C. McMichael | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 14:37 | 1:56 |
| A. Mangiapane | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13:18 | 0:46 |
| T. Raddysh | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:35 | 0:00 |
| E. Frank | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:15 | 0:00 |
| J. Carlson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 24:50 | 4:51 |
| J. Chychrun | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:42 | 5:12 |
| T. van Riemsdyk | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 16:27 | 0:00 |
| M. Roy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:20 | 0:11 |
| M. Fehérváry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 20:41 | 0:16 |
| R. Sandin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:18 | 1:02 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Thompson | 33 | 32 | 1 | .970 | 60:00 | Win |
| C. Lindgren | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CGY Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Coleman | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 16:47 | 2:41 |
| A. Kuzmenko | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:23 | 2:34 |
| J. Huberdeau | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:40 | 5:30 |
| M. Backlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:24 | 2:44 |
| N. Kadri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:04 | 5:33 |
| Y. Sharangovich | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:34 | 5:37 |
| M. Coronato | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:36 | 5:34 |
| J. Pelletier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:01 | 0:00 |
| M. Pospisil | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:56 | 1:34 |
| R. Lomberg | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:55 | 0:00 |
| C. Bishop | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:17 | 0:00 |
| A. Klapka | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7:00 | 0:00 |
| T. Barrie | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 17:20 | 3:00 |
| M. Weegar | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 24:52 | 5:14 |
| R. Andersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 23:44 | 2:59 |
| J. Hanley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 18:09 | 0:00 |
| J. Bean | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:57 | 0:00 |
| B. Pachal | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14:07 | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | WSH 2.9, CGY 2.7 | WSH 3, CGY 1 |
| Total goals | 5.6 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | WSH 26.1, CGY 28.7 | WSH 23, CGY 33 |
| Win chance | WSH 52% | WSH won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY N. Kadri | 3.2 | 5 | 0.77 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| WSH A. Ovechkin | 3.0 | 4 | 0.81 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| CGY B. Coleman | 2.5 | 5 | 0.60 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| CGY M. Backlund | 2.5 | 0 | 0.48 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CGY M. Coronato | 2.4 | 4 | 0.48 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| WSH J. Chychrun | 2.3 | 1 | 0.52 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| CGY M. Weegar | 2.2 | 2 | 0.48 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| WSH T. Wilson | 2.2 | 3 | 0.61 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| CGY Y. Sharangovich | 2.0 | 0 | 0.52 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| CGY J. Huberdeau | 1.9 | 1 | 0.74 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| WSH J. Carlson | 1.9 | 0 | 0.54 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| WSH C. McMichael | 1.9 | 0 | 0.51 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| CGY R. Andersson | 1.8 | 5 | 0.39 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| WSH A. Protas | 1.8 | 3 | 0.63 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| WSH D. Strome | 1.8 | 2 | 0.79 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| WSH P. Dubois | 1.7 | 1 | 0.65 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| CGY J. Pelletier | 1.6 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CGY M. Pospisil | 1.5 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CGY T. Barrie | 1.4 | 2 | 0.35 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| WSH A. Mangiapane | 1.3 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| WSH M. Roy | 1.3 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CGY A. Kuzmenko | 1.2 | 1 | 0.51 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| WSH B. Duhaime | 1.2 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WSH L. Eller | 1.1 | 1 | 0.26 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| WSH N. Dowd | 1.0 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| WSH E. Frank | 1.0 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| WSH T. Raddysh | 1.0 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| WSH T. Riemsdyk | 1.0 | 0 | 0.23 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| CGY B. Pachal | 1.0 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CGY J. Bean | 1.0 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| WSH R. Sandin | 1.0 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CGY A. Klapka | 0.9 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| WSH M. Fehérváry | 0.9 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CGY C. Bishop | 0.8 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CGY R. Lomberg | 0.8 | 2 | 0.12 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CGY J. Hanley | 0.7 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.