Game Recap: WSH 2, COL 5, January 19, 2026

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Game Recap

WSH2

FinalMon, Jan 19, 2026Every game that night

COL5

COL beat WSH 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.76 expected goals to 2.71. COL outshot WSH 44 to 24. N. MacKinnon led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). N. MacKinnon had 10 shots on goal against our projection of 4.3. S. Wedgewood stopped 22 of 24.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
WSH	1	1	0	2
COL	1	2	2	5

1st 5:54COLP. Kelly0.07 xG
1st 7:27WSHJ. ChychrunPP0.04 xG
2nd 7:03COLN. MacKinnonPP0.09 xG
2nd 15:58COLV. Olofsson0.46 xG
2nd 16:15WSHE. Frank0.16 xG
3rd 12:32COLA. Lehkonen0.15 xG
3rd 16:30COLN. MacKinnon0.30 xG

Team Stats

WSHCOL

24Shots on goal44

2.71Expected goals4.76

56Shot attempts93

155v5 shots on goal34

1/4Power play1/6

14Hits14

24Blocked shots9

12Penalty minutes8

14Giveaways15

7Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WSH 2.71 xGCOL 4.76 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WSH24 on goal, 2 scored

COL43 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
E. Frank	RW	1	1	2	4	0	1	+1	0	14:57	2:27
N. Dowd	C	0	1	1	0	3	0	+1	0	17:57	0:13
D. Strome	C	0	1	1	4	0	2	-2	0	17:39	3:21
A. Ovechkin	LW	0	1	1	5	0	0	+1	0	15:59	4:23
A. Protas	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	2	18:34	0:34
C. McMichael	LW	0	0	0	0	0	3	-3	0	18:02	1:25
J. Sourdif	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-2	0	15:21	1:28
R. Leonard	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-3	0	13:04	2:54
A. Beauvillier	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	2	12:46	2:04
I. Miroshnichenko	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	10:43	0:00
B. Duhaime	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	9:55	0:09
H. Lapierre	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7:41	0:00
J. Chychrun	D	1	0	1	3	1	4	-1	6	22:21	3:20
J. Carlson	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	22:59	1:29
M. Roy	D	0	0	0	0	4	3	-1	0	21:39	0:10
M. Fehérváry	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	20:29	0:13
R. Sandin	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-2	0	17:05	0:40
D. Chisholm	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	-1	0	11:51	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Lindgren	44	39	5	.886	60:00	Loss
L. Thompson	0	0	0	–	0:00

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. MacKinnon	C	2	1	3	10	0	0	+2	0	22:27	5:01
M. Necas	C	0	2	2	2	0	0	+2	0	23:38	5:09
V. Olofsson	LW	1	1	2	2	0	0	0	0	14:26	2:26
B. Nelson	C	0	1	1	5	1	0	0	2	20:50	3:59
A. Lehkonen	LW	1	0	1	2	1	0	+2	0	20:26	3:57
P. Kelly	C	1	0	1	2	3	1	+1	0	16:22	0:59
A. Barré-Boulet	C	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	3:46	0:18
J. Drury	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	16:14	0:49
R. Colton	C	0	0	0	5	1	1	0	0	14:41	1:30
G. Brindley	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	14:32	2:09
Z. Bardakov	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5:55	0:18
I. Ivan	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4:57	0:18
C. Makar	D	0	1	1	4	1	2	+2	0	24:43	5:14
J. Manson	D	0	1	1	3	2	1	+2	2	19:10	0:00
S. Malinski	D	0	0	0	5	0	2	0	0	22:13	0:35
S. Girard	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	2	19:35	0:01
B. Burns	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	+1	0	19:32	1:09
I. Solovyov	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	2	8:02	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Wedgewood	24	22	2	.917	60:00	Win
M. Blackwood	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

WSH

Line 1D. Strome13:39A. Protas16:02A. Beauvillier8:36

Line 2C. McMichael12:39J. Sourdif11:58R. Leonard10:10

Line 3N. Dowd12:33E. Frank11:47A. Ovechkin11:36

Line 4H. Lapierre7:41I. Miroshnichenko10:43B. Duhaime8:58

Pair 1J. Carlson17:09J. Chychrun17:33

Pair 2M. Roy16:18M. Fehérváry14:37

Pair 3R. Sandin13:35D. Chisholm11:51

COL

Line 1N. MacKinnon15:56M. Necas17:07A. Lehkonen13:52

Line 2P. Kelly12:41J. Drury12:38G. Brindley11:32

Line 3B. Nelson13:48R. Colton12:57V. Olofsson11:40

Line 4Z. Bardakov5:37I. Ivan4:39A. Barré-Boulet3:28

Pair 1S. Malinski19:26C. Makar16:19

Pair 2B. Burns13:59J. Manson15:51

Pair 3S. Girard17:53I. Solovyov8:02

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

HometownEthen Frank WSH Plays near home (born in Aurora)1 G, 1 A, 4 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WSH 3.0, COL 3.9	WSH 2, COL 5
Total goals	6.9	7
Shots on goal	WSH 26.6, COL 34.3	WSH 24, COL 44
Win chance	COL 64%	COL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	4.3	10	1.42	3	40%	2
WSH A. Ovechkin	3.0	5	0.79	1	36%	0
WSH J. Chychrun	2.7	3	0.54	1	16%	1
COL M. Necas	2.6	2	1.03	2	30%	0
COL C. Makar	2.6	4	1.01	1	25%	0
COL B. Nelson	2.5	5	0.83	1	33%	0
COL A. Lehkonen	2.4	2	0.72	1	29%	1
WSH A. Beauvillier	2.3	1	0.37	0	17%	0
WSH R. Leonard	2.1	0	0.56	0	18%	0
COL R. Colton	2.1	5	0.46	0	18%	0
WSH C. McMichael	2.1	0	0.54	0	21%	0
WSH A. Protas	2.1	3	0.62	0	23%	0
WSH D. Strome	2.0	4	0.77	1	26%	0
COL B. Burns	2.0	3	0.43	0	11%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.9	5	0.41	0	8%	0
WSH J. Carlson	1.9	0	0.55	0	9%	0
WSH E. Frank	1.8	4	0.46	2	21%	1
COL V. Olofsson	1.7	2	0.43	2	20%	1
COL J. Manson	1.6	3	0.41	1	9%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.5	2	0.31	1	13%	1
WSH J. Sourdif	1.4	1	0.41	0	17%	0
COL J. Drury	1.3	1	0.33	0	13%	0
COL G. Brindley	1.2	0	0.37	0	14%	0
WSH M. Roy	1.2	0	0.26	0	4%	0
COL S. Girard	1.1	0	0.33	0	6%	0
WSH R. Sandin	1.0	0	0.29	0	4%	0
COL A. Barré-Boulet	1.0	0	0.24	1	12%	0
WSH N. Dowd	1.0	0	0.28	1	13%	0
WSH I. Miroshnichenko	1.0	1	0.17	0	7%	0
WSH M. Fehérváry	0.9	0	0.25	0	5%	0
COL I. Solovyov	0.8	0	0.19	0	4%	0
WSH D. Chisholm	0.8	1	0.13	0	2%	0
COL Z. Bardakov	0.7	0	0.26	0	7%	0
COL I. Ivan	0.6	0	0.14	0	8%	0
WSH B. Duhaime	0.6	1	0.13	0	7%	0
WSH H. Lapierre	0.6	0	0.15	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.