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Game Recap
WSH4
DET3
WSH beat DET 4-3 in a shootout despite fewer good chances: 1.50 expected goals to 2.79. A. DeBrincat led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). C. Lindgren stopped 18 of 21.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | SO | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| DET | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
- 1st 6:27WSHN. Dowd0.07 xG
- 2nd 9:52DETB. Chiarot0.04 xG
- 3rd 9:36WSHD. Strome0.06 xG
- 3rd 14:44WSHD. Chisholm0.06 xG
- 3rd 18:20DETA. DeBrincat0.21 xG
- 3rd 19:07DETA. DeBrincat0.01 xG
Team Stats
WSHDET
23Shots on goal21
1.50Expected goals2.79
48Shot attempts63
195v5 shots on goal13
0/2Power play0/4
26Hits13
22Blocked shots17
4Penalty minutes2
6Giveaways13
4Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
WSH 1.50 xGDET 2.79 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
WSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Strome | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 18:31 | 2:28 |
| N. Dowd | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 17:49 | 0:00 |
| C. McMichael | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:17 | 1:33 |
| A. Ovechkin | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:00 | 3:51 |
| T. Wilson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 21:13 | 1:55 |
| A. Protas | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 21:09 | 0:00 |
| A. Beauvillier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:21 | 0:00 |
| J. Sourdif | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:10 | 2:05 |
| R. Leonard | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:05 | 2:26 |
| B. Duhaime | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:13 | 0:00 |
| E. Frank | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 8:48 | 1:33 |
| H. Lapierre | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6:48 | 0:00 |
| J. Chychrun | D | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 26:58 | 3:05 |
| D. Chisholm | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:22 | 0:00 |
| J. Carlson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -1 | 2 | 27:25 | 0:55 |
| M. Fehérváry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 0 | 21:39 | 0:09 |
| R. Sandin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 20:04 | 0:00 |
| T. van Riemsdyk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 16:18 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Lindgren | 21 | 18 | 3 | .857 | 65:00 | Win |
| C. Stevenson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 21:28 | 5:29 |
| D. Larkin | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 24:38 | 5:23 |
| P. Kane | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 19:08 | 4:52 |
| A. Copp | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 18:17 | 2:17 |
| L. Raymond | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 20:41 | 5:23 |
| M. Kasper | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:56 | 2:21 |
| J. Compher | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:07 | 2:25 |
| M. Appleton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:56 | 0:21 |
| J. van Riemsdyk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:10 | 2:39 |
| M. Rasmussen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 12:52 | 0:11 |
| E. Soderblom | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:29 | 0:10 |
| E. Finnie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:13 | 0:02 |
| M. Seider | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 31:57 | 4:41 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 20:40 | 0:27 |
| A. Johansson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 19:16 | 0:00 |
| J. Bernard-Docker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:44 | 0:00 |
| T. Hamonic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 13:56 | 0:00 |
| A. Sandin-Pellikka | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 11:20 | 3:19 |
Lines at 5-on-5
WSH
Line 1T. Wilson12:55A. Protas14:45J. Sourdif13:42
Line 2D. Strome13:15A. Beauvillier13:23A. Ovechkin10:49
Line 3C. McMichael12:32R. Leonard11:58N. Dowd12:15
Line 4B. Duhaime7:53H. Lapierre6:48E. Frank7:15
Pair 1J. Carlson20:15M. Fehérváry15:08
Pair 2J. Chychrun19:19T. Riemsdyk14:08
Pair 3R. Sandin14:28D. Chisholm9:22
DET
Line 1D. Larkin14:08M. Kasper11:56L. Raymond11:35
Line 2P. Kane11:17A. DeBrincat11:34A. Copp10:42
Line 3J. Compher11:01E. Finnie10:11M. Appleton12:39
Line 4M. Rasmussen11:17E. Soderblom11:19J. Riemsdyk10:14
Pair 1J. Bernard-Docker17:28M. Seider20:56
Pair 2T. Hamonic11:37A. Johansson16:08
Pair 3B. Chiarot18:07A. Sandin-Pellikka8:01
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | WSH 3.3, DET 3.4 | WSH 4, DET 3 |
| Total goals | 6.8 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | WSH 27.8, DET 29.9 | WSH 23, DET 21 |
| Win chance | DET 51% | WSH won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET A. DeBrincat | 3.5 | 5 | 0.90 | 3 | 33% | 2 |
| WSH A. Ovechkin | 3.0 | 4 | 0.89 | 1 | 38% | 0 |
| DET D. Larkin | 2.9 | 1 | 0.86 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| WSH J. Chychrun | 2.8 | 1 | 0.62 | 3 | 20% | 0 |
| DET P. Kane | 2.4 | 2 | 0.77 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| DET L. Raymond | 2.0 | 2 | 0.86 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| WSH A. Protas | 2.0 | 2 | 0.65 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| WSH R. Leonard | 2.0 | 3 | 0.57 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| WSH D. Strome | 2.0 | 2 | 0.86 | 2 | 27% | 1 |
| DET M. Seider | 2.0 | 3 | 0.60 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| WSH T. Wilson | 2.0 | 0 | 0.74 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| WSH J. Carlson | 1.9 | 3 | 0.66 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WSH A. Beauvillier | 1.9 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| DET M. Kasper | 1.8 | 2 | 0.39 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| WSH C. McMichael | 1.8 | 0 | 0.53 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| DET A. Copp | 1.8 | 0 | 0.60 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| WSH E. Frank | 1.6 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| WSH J. Sourdif | 1.6 | 1 | 0.55 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| DET J. Riemsdyk | 1.6 | 0 | 0.51 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| DET E. Soderblom | 1.3 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DET M. Rasmussen | 1.2 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.2 | 2 | 0.22 | 1 | 7% | 1 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.2 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| DET M. Appleton | 1.1 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DET E. Finnie | 1.0 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| WSH M. Fehérváry | 1.0 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DET T. Hamonic | 1.0 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WSH R. Sandin | 0.9 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WSH N. Dowd | 0.9 | 1 | 0.31 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| DET A. Sandin-Pellikka | 0.9 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DET A. Johansson | 0.8 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WSH D. Chisholm | 0.8 | 2 | 0.14 | 1 | 3% | 1 |
| DET J. Bernard-Docker | 0.8 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WSH B. Duhaime | 0.6 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| WSH T. Riemsdyk | 0.6 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| WSH H. Lapierre | 0.6 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.