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Game Recap
WSH5
Final/OTSat, Jan 24, 2026Every game that night
EDM6

EDM beat WSH 6-5 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 6.61 expected goals to 3.14. EDM outshot WSH 40 to 27. E. Bouchard scored three for EDM. C. McDavid had 9 shots on goal against our projection of 3.6. T. Jarry stopped 13 of 15.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdOTT
WSH12205
EDM11316
  1. 1st 19:12EDME. Bouchard0.03 xG
  2. 1st 19:34WSHA. Protas0.07 xG
  3. 2nd 4:13EDME. Bouchard0.03 xG
  4. 2nd 6:50WSHJ. Sourdif0.07 xG
  5. 2nd 14:29WSHA. Beauvillier0.01 xG
  6. 3rd 4:30EDME. Bouchard0.13 xG
  7. 3rd 6:40WSHD. StromePP0.02 xG
  8. 3rd 8:24EDMC. McDavidPP0.10 xG
  9. 3rd 15:09WSHC. McMichael0.31 xG
  10. 3rd 19:28EDMZ. Hyman0.29 xG
  11. OT 0:47EDMC. McDavid0.45 xG

Team Stats

WSHEDM
27Shots on goal40
3.14Expected goals6.61
65Shot attempts76
245v5 shots on goal18
1/5Power play1/5
8Hits11
17Blocked shots18
8Penalty minutes10
16Giveaways20
5Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WSH 3.14 xGEDM 6.61 xGGoal

012345671st2nd3rdOTEDM goal, 19:12WSH goal, 19:34EDM goal, 4:13WSH goal, 6:50WSH goal, 14:29EDM goal, 4:30WSH goal, 6:40EDM goal, 8:24WSH goal, 15:09EDM goal, 19:28EDM goal, 0:47

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WSH27 on goal, 5 scored
EDM40 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WSH Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
T. WilsonRW0220020219:314:03
C. McMichaelLW112510+2017:591:54
J. SourdifC112220+1015:172:37
D. StromeC1011000018:354:11
A. ProtasLW101401-3017:340:12
A. BeauvillierRW1014110013:460:28
E. FrankRW011200+109:562:08
H. LapierreC011000+106:340:00
N. DowdC000201-2019:020:24
A. OvechkinLW000131+1015:296:14
R. LeonardRW0002010014:563:50
B. DuhaimeLW000100-107:220:00
J. CarlsonD022002-1025:532:23
J. ChychrunD011103-2225:344:12
R. SandinD011101+105:080:00
M. FehérváryD000102-2023:380:10
M. RoyD0000100221:270:20
T. van RiemsdykD000002+2214:070:24
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
C. Lindgren40346.85060:47OT loss
L. Thompson000–0:00

EDM Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
C. McDavidC235901+5028:438:24
L. DraisaitlC033402+2226:168:26
Z. HymanLW112601+3024:068:19
R. Nugent-HopkinsC011200+1022:437:52
M. SavoieC000200-2012:390:10
J. RoslovicC000100-1011:580:17
M. JanmarkC000000-1011:250:00
V. PodkolzinRW000331-2211:190:00
A. MangiapaneLW000101-109:390:00
I. HowardLW000100-109:120:33
T. FredericC000020007:480:00
C. LazarC000040047:020:00
E. BouchardD336812+5029:258:23
M. EkholmD011012+3019:590:09
J. WalmanD000202-4018:040:22
D. NurseD000103-2017:260:00
T. EmbersonD000002-1215:070:00
S. StastneyD000001-1012:370:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
C. Ingram1293.75034:29
T. Jarry15132.86724:29Win

Lines at 5-on-5

WSH

Line 1C. McMichael11:59R. Leonard11:06D. Strome12:47
Line 2A. Protas10:58T. Wilson9:55J. Sourdif11:19
Line 3N. Dowd11:20A. Beauvillier12:01A. Ovechkin9:12
Line 4B. Duhaime7:22H. Lapierre6:34E. Frank7:42
Pair 1J. Chychrun18:45M. Roy17:27
Pair 2J. Carlson13:26M. Fehérváry15:13
Pair 3T. Riemsdyk12:01R. Sandin5:08

EDM

Line 1Z. Hyman12:52C. McDavid13:34R. Nugent-Hopkins9:58
Line 2J. Roslovic11:41M. Savoie9:09I. Howard8:39
Line 3L. Draisaitl13:48V. Podkolzin11:19A. Mangiapane9:39
Line 4M. Janmark7:35T. Frederic7:48C. Lazar6:27
Pair 1M. Ekholm14:07E. Bouchard14:28
Pair 2D. Nurse14:34T. Emberson13:10
Pair 3J. Walman14:46S. Stastney10:41

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreWSH 3.1, EDM 3.7WSH 5, EDM 6
Total goals6.811
Shots on goalWSH 26.4, EDM 31.7WSH 27, EDM 40
Win chanceEDM 59%EDM won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
EDM C. McDavid3.691.59539%2
EDM Z. Hyman3.260.88239%1
EDM L. Draisaitl3.041.41344%0
WSH A. Ovechkin3.010.85036%0
EDM E. Bouchard2.680.96620%3
WSH J. Chychrun2.410.54119%0
WSH R. Leonard2.020.56018%0
WSH A. Protas2.040.64123%1
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins2.020.85125%0
EDM D. Nurse2.010.36010%0
WSH D. Strome2.010.82125%1
EDM J. Roslovic2.010.52021%0
WSH A. Beauvillier1.940.33115%1
WSH T. Wilson1.900.67226%0
EDM J. Walman1.720.45012%0
WSH C. McMichael1.750.49219%1
EDM M. Ekholm1.700.46110%0
WSH J. Carlson1.700.58211%0
WSH E. Frank1.620.44119%0
WSH J. Sourdif1.520.49219%1
EDM V. Podkolzin1.530.40016%0
EDM I. Howard1.410.27012%0
EDM M. Savoie1.320.32015%0
WSH M. Roy1.100.2605%0
EDM T. Frederic1.000.20012%0
WSH R. Sandin1.010.2915%0
WSH N. Dowd0.920.30013%0
EDM A. Mangiapane0.910.27013%0
EDM S. Stastney0.900.1704%0
WSH M. Fehérváry0.810.2606%0
EDM T. Emberson0.700.2204%0
EDM M. Janmark0.700.2308%0
EDM C. Lazar0.700.1707%0
WSH B. Duhaime0.610.1307%0
WSH H. Lapierre0.600.1816%0
WSH T. Riemsdyk0.500.1502%0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.