Game Recap: WSH 4, FLA 1, November 25, 2024

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Game Recap

WSH4

FinalMon, Nov 25, 2024Every game that night

FLA1

WSH beat FLA 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 5.04 expected goals to 2.29. WSH outshot FLA 31 to 21. J. Chychrun led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). C. McMichael had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. L. Thompson stopped 20 of 21.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
WSH	1	0	3	4
FLA	1	0	0	1

1st 7:00FLAN. Mikkola0.12 xG
1st 17:49WSHL. Eller0.15 xG
3rd 1:18WSHJ. ChychrunPP0.03 xG
3rd 18:32WSHL. EllerEN0.87 xG
3rd 19:37WSHI. MiroshnichenkoEN0.90 xG

Team Stats

WSHFLA

31Shots on goal21

5.04Expected goals2.29

73Shot attempts57

235v5 shots on goal17

1/4Power play0/4

23Hits30

15Blocked shots17

10Penalty minutes10

16Giveaways16

5Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WSH 5.04 xGFLA 2.29 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WSH31 on goal, 4 scored

FLA20 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Eller	C	2	0	2	2	0	0	+2	2	13:28	0:05
T. Wilson	RW	0	1	1	1	5	1	0	0	18:17	2:53
P. Dubois	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	2	18:17	3:53
D. Strome	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	-1	0	15:30	3:05
I. Miroshnichenko	LW	1	0	1	1	2	0	+1	0	9:53	2:10
H. Lapierre	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	+1	0	9:15	0:00
A. Protas	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	15:59	0:00
C. McMichael	LW	0	0	0	6	0	0	+1	0	15:45	2:55
N. Dowd	C	0	0	0	0	5	1	+1	0	14:48	0:05
T. Raddysh	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	14:09	2:52
A. Mangiapane	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	2	13:47	2:47
B. Duhaime	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	13:36	0:05
J. Chychrun	D	1	2	3	3	1	3	+1	0	19:03	3:38
M. Roy	D	0	1	1	0	3	1	+1	2	21:07	0:05
J. Carlson	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	0	22:58	3:31
R. Sandin	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	+1	0	20:43	1:56
M. Fehérváry	D	0	0	0	2	5	2	0	2	18:51	0:05
T. van Riemsdyk	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	14:34	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Thompson	21	20	1	.952	60:00	Win
C. Lindgren	0	0	0	–	0:00

FLA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Verhaeghe	C	0	1	1	1	0	2	-2	0	18:36	2:39
S. Bennett	C	0	1	1	2	5	1	-2	0	18:14	4:38
A. Barkov	C	0	0	0	3	3	0	-2	0	22:36	4:37
S. Reinhart	C	0	0	0	2	1	2	-2	0	22:12	4:32
M. Tkachuk	LW	0	0	0	0	5	0	-2	2	18:11	5:13
E. Rodrigues	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	15:47	2:46
E. Luostarinen	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	14:21	0:00
A. Lundell	C	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	0	14:17	1:27
M. Samoskevich	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	11:44	0:39
J. Boqvist	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8:39	0:06
T. Nosek	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	7:40	0:00
A. Greer	LW	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	2	5:56	0:11
N. Mikkola	D	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	16:36	0:04
A. Ekblad	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	-2	2	23:46	4:40
G. Forsling	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	20:17	0:06
N. Schmidt	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	18:20	2:43
D. Kulikov	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	0	17:50	0:00
U. Balinskis	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	2	16:48	2:34

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Knight	29	27	2	.931	58:30	Loss
S. Bobrovsky	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamLars Eller FLA Faces WSH, his team until May 20252 G, 2 SOG
HometownJakob Chychrun WSH Plays near home (born in Boca Raton)1 G, 2 A, 3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WSH 2.7, FLA 3.2	WSH 4, FLA 1
Total goals	5.9	5
Shots on goal	WSH 24.8, FLA 31.3	WSH 31, FLA 21
Win chance	FLA 59%	WSH won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
FLA M. Tkachuk	3.1	0	1.09	0	31%	0
FLA C. Verhaeghe	3.0	1	0.86	1	32%	0
FLA S. Reinhart	2.7	2	1.07	0	40%	0
FLA S. Bennett	2.6	2	0.72	1	26%	0
FLA A. Barkov	2.4	3	1.10	0	29%	0
WSH J. Chychrun	2.1	3	0.43	3	12%	1
FLA E. Rodrigues	2.1	3	0.57	0	20%	0
WSH J. Carlson	2.0	2	0.59	0	11%	0
WSH T. Wilson	2.0	1	0.53	1	23%	0
WSH C. McMichael	2.0	6	0.51	0	24%	0
FLA G. Forsling	1.9	2	0.46	0	13%	0
FLA A. Lundell	1.9	2	0.59	0	18%	0
FLA A. Ekblad	1.7	1	0.43	0	12%	0
WSH D. Strome	1.6	3	0.80	1	24%	0
WSH P. Dubois	1.6	0	0.54	1	20%	0
WSH A. Protas	1.5	1	0.46	0	13%	0
WSH A. Mangiapane	1.3	1	0.40	0	17%	0
WSH M. Roy	1.3	0	0.28	1	6%	0
FLA U. Balinskis	1.2	0	0.22	0	4%	0
WSH L. Eller	1.2	2	0.27	2	12%	2
WSH B. Duhaime	1.2	1	0.23	0	12%	0
FLA M. Samoskevich	1.2	0	0.32	0	12%	0
WSH T. Riemsdyk	1.2	0	0.25	0	3%	0
FLA E. Luostarinen	1.2	1	0.36	0	13%	0
WSH T. Raddysh	1.1	2	0.24	0	12%	0
FLA N. Mikkola	1.1	1	0.22	1	4%	1
WSH I. Miroshnichenko	1.1	1	0.23	1	10%	1
FLA D. Kulikov	1.1	2	0.25	0	6%	0
FLA N. Schmidt	1.0	1	0.25	0	7%	0
WSH R. Sandin	1.0	3	0.37	0	7%	0
WSH N. Dowd	1.0	0	0.33	0	16%	0
FLA A. Greer	0.9	0	0.21	0	9%	0
FLA J. Boqvist	0.9	0	0.30	0	13%	0
FLA T. Nosek	0.9	0	0.23	0	7%	0
WSH M. Fehérváry	0.9	2	0.23	0	6%	0
WSH H. Lapierre	0.8	3	0.30	1	11%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.