Game Recap: WSH 3, FLA 6, November 13, 2025

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Game Recap

WSH3

FinalThu, Nov 13, 2025Every game that night

FLA6

FLA beat WSH 6-3, and the chances backed it up: 4.15 expected goals to 2.50. WSH outshot FLA 40 to 28. S. Reinhart led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). R. Leonard had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. D. Tarasov stopped 37 of 40.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
WSH	1	0	2	3
FLA	1	2	3	6

1st 8:25WSHB. Duhaime0.08 xG
1st 8:53FLAE. Rodrigues0.08 xG
2nd 3:05FLAC. Schwindt0.08 xG
2nd 14:41FLAS. ReinhartPP0.35 xG
3rd 0:52WSHJ. Sourdif0.09 xG
3rd 4:54FLAS. Reinhart0.16 xG
3rd 9:47FLAS. JonesPP0.01 xG
3rd 12:40WSHR. Sandin0.02 xG
3rd 18:30FLAE. LuostarinenEN0.68 xG

Team Stats

WSHFLA

40Shots on goal28

2.50Expected goals4.15

84Shot attempts58

365v5 shots on goal19

0/2Power play2/5

14Hits22

13Blocked shots19

8Penalty minutes4

10Giveaways14

6Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WSH 2.50 xGFLA 4.15 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WSH40 on goal, 3 scored

FLA28 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Wilson	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	-1	2	18:05	1:48
J. Sourdif	C	1	0	1	3	5	0	+1	0	15:20	0:00
B. Duhaime	LW	1	0	1	1	0	2	+1	0	11:47	0:02
D. Strome	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	18:35	2:37
A. Ovechkin	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	-2	0	17:33	3:41
A. Beauvillier	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	15:40	0:17
A. Protas	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:22	0:00
R. Leonard	RW	0	0	0	7	0	1	-1	0	15:08	2:12
C. McMichael	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	14:53	1:15
H. Lapierre	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	11:41	0:00
N. Dowd	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	4	10:39	0:06
E. Frank	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	0	9:07	1:26
R. Sandin	D	1	1	2	5	2	1	+1	0	21:24	1:37
J. Carlson	D	0	1	1	3	0	0	-2	0	22:55	2:23
J. Chychrun	D	0	1	1	2	0	3	-1	2	20:18	2:28
M. Fehérváry	D	0	0	0	2	3	2	-1	0	19:58	0:00
M. Roy	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	+1	0	19:57	0:08
D. Chisholm	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	0	0	14:43	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Thompson	27	22	5	.815	59:23	Loss
C. Lindgren	0	0	0	–	0:00

FLA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Lundell	C	0	3	3	0	2	1	0	0	21:21	4:56
E. Luostarinen	C	1	2	3	3	3	1	+1	0	19:23	2:30
S. Reinhart	C	2	1	3	2	0	0	+2	0	18:15	4:55
B. Marchand	LW	0	2	2	1	0	0	-1	0	19:04	4:56
C. Verhaeghe	C	0	1	1	2	1	1	+1	0	16:27	5:02
E. Rodrigues	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	+2	0	16:01	2:35
C. Schwindt	RW	1	0	1	2	2	2	0	0	10:13	0:00
S. Bennett	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	15:25	2:37
M. Samoskevich	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	14:21	2:37
J. Boqvist	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	12:36	0:00
L. Kunin	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	10:21	0:00
A. Greer	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	10:09	0:00
S. Jones	D	1	1	2	5	4	2	+1	2	23:29	5:06
N. Mikkola	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	+2	0	18:58	0:00
G. Forsling	D	0	1	1	1	2	1	+1	0	18:41	0:00
A. Ekblad	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	0	21:14	2:26
D. Sebrango	D	0	0	0	1	3	6	-1	2	15:44	0:00
J. Petry	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	14:18	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Tarasov	40	37	3	.925	60:00	Win
S. Bobrovsky	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

WSH

Line 1D. Strome15:21A. Beauvillier14:24A. Ovechkin13:15

Line 2A. Protas13:07T. Wilson13:53J. Sourdif14:23

Line 3B. Duhaime7:59E. Frank7:41N. Dowd8:13

Line 4H. Lapierre11:41R. Leonard12:19C. McMichael10:41

Pair 1J. Chychrun16:00M. Roy16:16

Pair 2J. Carlson17:20M. Fehérváry17:07

Pair 3R. Sandin16:06D. Chisholm13:29

FLA

Line 1B. Marchand13:47E. Luostarinen13:51A. Lundell13:24

Line 2J. Boqvist12:36M. Samoskevich11:44S. Bennett12:48

Line 3S. Reinhart11:49E. Rodrigues11:58C. Verhaeghe11:09

Line 4A. Greer10:09L. Kunin10:14C. Schwindt10:09

Pair 1S. Jones17:14N. Mikkola16:45

Pair 2A. Ekblad16:25G. Forsling16:13

Pair 3J. Petry14:16D. Sebrango14:44

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

HometownJakob Chychrun WSH Plays near home (born in Boca Raton)1 A, 2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WSH 2.7, FLA 3.0	WSH 3, FLA 6
Total goals	5.7	9
Shots on goal	WSH 24.6, FLA 28.2	WSH 40, FLA 28
Win chance	FLA 55%	FLA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
FLA S. Reinhart	2.8	2	0.93	3	39%	2
WSH A. Ovechkin	2.7	3	0.79	0	34%	0
WSH J. Chychrun	2.6	2	0.53	1	15%	0
FLA B. Marchand	2.6	1	0.87	2	31%	0
FLA C. Verhaeghe	2.5	2	0.72	1	28%	0
FLA S. Bennett	2.4	1	0.57	0	25%	0
FLA A. Lundell	2.3	0	0.74	3	23%	0
FLA E. Rodrigues	2.2	1	0.49	1	18%	1
FLA M. Samoskevich	1.9	2	0.45	0	17%	0
WSH J. Carlson	1.9	3	0.55	1	10%	0
WSH A. Beauvillier	1.9	3	0.35	0	15%	0
WSH T. Wilson	1.8	1	0.65	1	27%	0
FLA G. Forsling	1.7	1	0.34	1	10%	0
FLA S. Jones	1.7	5	0.47	2	12%	1
WSH C. McMichael	1.7	0	0.45	0	19%	0
WSH D. Strome	1.7	1	0.78	0	24%	0
FLA A. Ekblad	1.6	3	0.43	0	11%	0
WSH A. Protas	1.6	0	0.57	0	19%	0
FLA E. Luostarinen	1.5	3	0.48	3	15%	1
WSH R. Leonard	1.4	7	0.29	0	12%	0
WSH M. Roy	1.3	1	0.27	0	5%	0
FLA N. Mikkola	1.2	0	0.20	1	5%	0
WSH M. Fehérváry	1.0	2	0.24	0	5%	0
FLA J. Boqvist	1.0	0	0.27	0	13%	0
WSH R. Sandin	0.9	5	0.31	2	5%	1
WSH N. Dowd	0.9	2	0.28	0	14%	0
FLA L. Kunin	0.9	2	0.15	0	9%	0
FLA A. Greer	0.8	1	0.21	0	9%	0
WSH E. Frank	0.8	2	0.28	0	11%	0
WSH D. Chisholm	0.8	3	0.14	0	3%	0
WSH B. Duhaime	0.8	1	0.21	1	10%	1
FLA J. Petry	0.7	1	0.21	0	3%	0
FLA D. Sebrango	0.7	1	0.19	0	3%	0
FLA C. Schwindt	0.7	2	0.16	1	6%	1
WSH H. Lapierre	0.7	1	0.24	0	8%	0
WSH J. Sourdif	0.7	3	0.13	1	9%	1

Shots on goal: 15 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.