Game Recap: WSH 3, FLA 5, December 29, 2025

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Game Recap

WSH3

FinalMon, Dec 29, 2025Every game that night

FLA5

FLA beat WSH 5-3, with the chances close: 3.18 expected goals to 3.57. T. Wilson led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). T. Wilson had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. S. Bobrovsky stopped 24 of 27.

Team Stats

WSHFLA

27Shots on goal29

3.57Expected goals3.18

47Shot attempts69

135v5 shots on goal19

1/6Power play1/6

19Hits16

21Blocked shots6

12Penalty minutes12

14Giveaways16

6Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WSH 3.57 xGFLA 3.18 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WSH25 on goal, 3 scored

FLA28 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Strome	C	1	2	3	4	0	0	0	0	20:56	7:39
T. Wilson	RW	2	1	3	6	2	0	+1	0	20:48	6:39
A. Protas	LW	0	1	1	3	1	0	-2	0	17:19	0:42
A. Ovechkin	LW	0	0	0	2	5	0	-2	2	20:24	8:04
C. McMichael	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	16:28	0:54
J. Sourdif	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	14:39	1:11
N. Dowd	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	2	14:38	0:00
A. Beauvillier	RW	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	14:17	0:43
R. Leonard	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	4	14:13	5:20
E. Frank	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	8:53	0:56
B. Duhaime	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	6:34	0:00
H. Lapierre	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	6:09	0:00
J. Chychrun	D	0	1	1	4	0	2	-1	0	26:59	7:57
M. Fehérváry	D	0	1	1	1	2	6	+1	0	17:05	0:00
J. Carlson	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	22:43	4:23
M. Roy	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	-1	0	17:38	0:00
R. Sandin	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	15:56	0:00
T. van Riemsdyk	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	14:35	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Thompson	28	24	4	.857	58:45	Loss
C. Lindgren	0	0	0	–	0:00

FLA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Reinhart	C	2	1	3	5	0	0	+3	0	23:25	7:27
B. Marchand	LW	1	1	2	2	2	0	0	0	21:28	7:21
A. Lundell	C	1	1	2	3	2	0	+2	0	20:14	2:15
S. Bennett	C	0	1	1	3	2	0	0	0	20:51	7:10
E. Luostarinen	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+2	2	16:21	1:26
E. Rodrigues	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	15:50	3:06
M. Samoskevich	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	15:50	6:01
C. Verhaeghe	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	14:55	2:11
A. Greer	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	10:38	0:00
J. Boqvist	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	7:39	0:00
L. Kunin	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	5:58	0:00
J. Studnicka	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4:53	0:00
S. Jones	D	0	2	2	1	0	2	-1	4	22:19	7:07
A. Ekblad	D	1	1	2	2	1	2	+2	0	22:01	2:22
J. Petry	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	14:16	0:28
N. Mikkola	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	19:15	0:00
G. Forsling	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	+2	4	19:03	0:04
U. Balinskis	D	0	0	0	2	4	2	+1	0	13:54	0:07

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Bobrovsky	27	24	3	.889	59:57	Win
D. Tarasov	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

WSH

Line 1T. Wilson8:52D. Strome11:56A. Protas11:16

Line 2N. Dowd10:41R. Leonard8:40A. Beauvillier12:18

Line 3A. Ovechkin11:35J. Sourdif12:09

Line 4B. Duhaime6:34E. Frank7:57H. Lapierre6:09

Pair 1J. Chychrun17:19M. Roy13:55

Pair 2J. Carlson11:54M. Fehérváry11:28

Pair 3T. Riemsdyk10:23R. Sandin14:01

FLA

Line 1A. Lundell12:17E. Luostarinen12:04S. Reinhart10:52

Line 2C. Verhaeghe12:22S. Bennett11:03B. Marchand9:46

Line 3E. Rodrigues11:58M. Samoskevich9:46A. Greer10:12

Line 4J. Boqvist7:39L. Kunin5:58J. Studnicka4:53

Pair 1G. Forsling14:47A. Ekblad13:11

Pair 2S. Jones11:49N. Mikkola14:16

Pair 3J. Petry12:42U. Balinskis11:40

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

HometownJakob Chychrun WSH Plays near home (born in Boca Raton)1 A, 4 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WSH 2.9, FLA 3.1	WSH 3, FLA 5
Total goals	6.0	8
Shots on goal	WSH 26.1, FLA 29.6	WSH 27, FLA 29
Win chance	FLA 54%	FLA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
FLA S. Bennett	3.1	3	0.81	1	31%	0
WSH J. Chychrun	2.9	4	0.61	1	18%	0
FLA B. Marchand	2.7	2	0.94	2	32%	1
FLA S. Reinhart	2.7	5	0.98	3	38%	2
WSH A. Ovechkin	2.6	2	0.80	0	34%	0
FLA C. Verhaeghe	2.4	3	0.73	0	27%	0
FLA A. Lundell	2.2	3	0.66	2	21%	1
FLA M. Samoskevich	2.2	3	0.49	0	17%	0
FLA E. Rodrigues	2.1	1	0.49	0	18%	0
WSH T. Wilson	2.0	6	0.69	3	28%	2
WSH A. Beauvillier	2.0	0	0.37	0	16%	0
FLA S. Jones	1.9	1	0.52	2	13%	0
WSH R. Leonard	1.9	1	0.44	0	15%	0
WSH J. Carlson	1.9	1	0.59	0	10%	0
WSH C. McMichael	1.8	0	0.53	0	21%	0
WSH A. Protas	1.8	3	0.63	1	22%	0
WSH D. Strome	1.7	4	0.78	3	24%	1
FLA E. Luostarinen	1.6	0	0.53	1	16%	0
FLA A. Ekblad	1.5	2	0.44	2	10%	1
FLA G. Forsling	1.4	1	0.33	0	9%	0
WSH J. Sourdif	1.4	0	0.33	0	14%	0
FLA A. Greer	1.4	2	0.33	0	13%	0
WSH M. Roy	1.3	0	0.31	0	5%	0
WSH E. Frank	1.3	0	0.41	0	17%	0
FLA N. Mikkola	1.1	0	0.21	0	6%	0
WSH M. Fehérváry	1.1	1	0.29	1	6%	0
WSH R. Sandin	1.1	1	0.32	0	5%	0
WSH N. Dowd	1.0	3	0.29	0	14%	0
FLA U. Balinskis	0.9	2	0.19	0	4%	0
FLA J. Studnicka	0.9	0	0.09	0	5%	0
FLA J. Boqvist	0.8	1	0.23	0	11%	0
FLA J. Petry	0.8	0	0.23	1	4%	0
WSH T. Riemsdyk	0.8	0	0.22	0	3%	0
FLA L. Kunin	0.7	0	0.11	0	7%	0
WSH B. Duhaime	0.7	1	0.16	0	8%	0
WSH H. Lapierre	0.6	0	0.20	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.