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Game Recap
WSH8
MTL4
WSH beat MTL 8-4, with the chances close: 3.12 expected goals to 3.39. WSH outshot MTL 36 to 28. A. Ovechkin scored three for WSH. C. Caufield had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 2.9. C. Lindgren stopped 24 of 28.
Team Stats
WSHMTL
36Shots on goal28
3.12Expected goals3.39
68Shot attempts56
265v5 shots on goal21
2/4Power play1/3
19Hits20
13Blocked shots15
10Penalty minutes12
16Giveaways16
4Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
WSH 3.12 xGMTL 3.39 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
WSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Ovechkin | LW | 3 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 15:35 | 3:28 |
| E. Frank | RW | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 8:51 | 1:34 |
| D. Strome | C | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:59 | 4:16 |
| H. Lapierre | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 6:49 | 0:00 |
| S. Milano | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 6:39 | 0:00 |
| A. Protas | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 19:46 | 0:00 |
| T. Wilson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:26 | 3:31 |
| C. McMichael | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:57 | 0:59 |
| J. Sourdif | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 15:47 | 0:00 |
| R. Leonard | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 15:29 | 1:43 |
| A. Beauvillier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:15 | 0:00 |
| B. Duhaime | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:02 | 0:00 |
| J. Carlson | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 23:56 | 3:32 |
| J. Chychrun | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 2 | 22:26 | 3:41 |
| R. Sandin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 4 | +4 | 0 | 20:38 | 1:44 |
| M. Fehérváry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 20:10 | 0:00 |
| M. Roy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:51 | 0:00 |
| D. McIlrath | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 11:30 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Lindgren | 28 | 24 | 4 | .857 | 60:00 | Win |
| L. Thompson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
MTL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Gallagher | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:45 | 1:28 |
| N. Suzuki | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:57 | 3:40 |
| C. Caufield | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:25 | 3:12 |
| Z. Bolduc | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:16 | 2:45 |
| J. Veleno | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 17:00 | 0:00 |
| I. Demidov | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 15:07 | 1:40 |
| J. Slafkovský | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -3 | 2 | 15:27 | 2:52 |
| J. Anderson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 14:19 | 0:08 |
| O. Kapanen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:27 | 1:23 |
| J. Evans | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:19 | 0:14 |
| J. Roy | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9:54 | 0:16 |
| J. Davidson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:33 | 0:00 |
| M. Matheson | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 22:34 | 0:19 |
| N. Dobson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 26:15 | 1:20 |
| L. Hutson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:44 | 3:08 |
| A. Carrier | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 19:34 | 0:04 |
| A. Xhekaj | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 13:28 | 0:00 |
| J. Struble | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:41 | 0:11 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Montembeault | 10 | 7 | 3 | .700 | 22:50 | |
| J. Dobes | 25 | 21 | 4 | .840 | 35:48 | Loss |
Lines at 5-on-5
WSH
Line 1T. Wilson14:39J. Sourdif14:52A. Protas17:33
Line 2C. McMichael13:30R. Leonard12:49B. Duhaime11:09
Line 3D. Strome12:38A. Beauvillier13:32A. Ovechkin11:29
Line 4H. Lapierre6:14E. Frank7:17S. Milano6:04
Pair 1J. Carlson15:57M. Fehérváry17:09
Pair 3J. Chychrun16:54D. McIlrath10:48
MTL
Line 1N. Suzuki15:17C. Caufield13:51Z. Bolduc13:08
Line 2B. Gallagher12:17J. Veleno14:57J. Davidson9:33
Line 3J. Slafkovský11:56I. Demidov11:18O. Kapanen9:25
Line 4J. Anderson12:34J. Roy9:38J. Evans7:38
Pair 1M. Matheson19:12N. Dobson18:53
Pair 2A. Carrier15:37A. Xhekaj11:54
Pair 3L. Hutson17:17J. Struble11:55
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | WSH 3.0, MTL 3.1 | WSH 8, MTL 4 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 12 |
| Shots on goal | WSH 25.7, MTL 26.0 | WSH 36, MTL 28 |
| Win chance | MTL 51% | WSH won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL C. Caufield | 2.9 | 8 | 0.85 | 1 | 35% | 0 |
| WSH A. Ovechkin | 2.8 | 3 | 0.85 | 4 | 36% | 3 |
| WSH J. Chychrun | 2.4 | 5 | 0.60 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| MTL N. Dobson | 2.2 | 0 | 0.61 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| MTL N. Suzuki | 2.1 | 2 | 0.95 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| WSH T. Wilson | 2.1 | 0 | 0.75 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| WSH A. Beauvillier | 2.1 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| MTL J. Slafkovský | 1.9 | 2 | 0.56 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| WSH C. McMichael | 1.9 | 2 | 0.55 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| WSH A. Protas | 1.9 | 2 | 0.66 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| WSH J. Carlson | 1.8 | 0 | 0.62 | 2 | 12% | 0 |
| WSH D. Strome | 1.8 | 1 | 0.85 | 3 | 26% | 0 |
| WSH R. Leonard | 1.7 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MTL M. Matheson | 1.6 | 2 | 0.44 | 2 | 11% | 1 |
| MTL B. Gallagher | 1.6 | 3 | 0.41 | 2 | 16% | 1 |
| MTL Z. Bolduc | 1.6 | 0 | 0.40 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| MTL J. Anderson | 1.4 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| MTL I. Demidov | 1.3 | 0 | 0.67 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| MTL L. Hutson | 1.3 | 1 | 0.79 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| WSH M. Roy | 1.3 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MTL O. Kapanen | 1.2 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| MTL J. Roy | 1.1 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| MTL J. Evans | 1.1 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| WSH J. Sourdif | 1.0 | 3 | 0.23 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| MTL A. Carrier | 1.0 | 0 | 0.29 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| WSH M. Fehérváry | 1.0 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| WSH S. Milano | 0.9 | 3 | 0.31 | 2 | 14% | 2 |
| WSH R. Sandin | 0.9 | 5 | 0.36 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| WSH E. Frank | 0.9 | 4 | 0.27 | 4 | 11% | 2 |
| MTL J. Veleno | 0.9 | 4 | 0.21 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| MTL A. Xhekaj | 0.8 | 2 | 0.10 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WSH B. Duhaime | 0.8 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| MTL J. Struble | 0.7 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WSH H. Lapierre | 0.7 | 2 | 0.24 | 2 | 8% | 0 |
| WSH D. McIlrath | 0.5 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 17 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.