Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
WSH2
MTL6
MTL beat WSH 6-2, with the chances close: 3.68 expected goals to 3.79. N. Suzuki led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). A. Ovechkin had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.7. J. Dobes stopped 27 of 29.
Team Stats
WSHMTL
29Shots on goal25
3.79Expected goals3.68
55Shot attempts52
215v5 shots on goal18
0/4Power play0/3
20Hits13
13Blocked shots12
8Penalty minutes10
14Giveaways16
4Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
WSH 3.79 xGMTL 3.68 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
WSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Ovechkin | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:30 | 6:53 |
| A. Beauvillier | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:42 | 0:02 |
| D. Strome | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:07 | 5:09 |
| T. Wilson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 19:16 | 3:44 |
| P. Dubois | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -4 | 0 | 18:22 | 3:42 |
| A. Protas | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:05 | 0:05 |
| C. McMichael | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 15:09 | 1:46 |
| R. Leonard | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 15:09 | 4:54 |
| N. Dowd | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 14:48 | 0:06 |
| J. Sourdif | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:43 | 1:30 |
| E. Frank | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:30 | 2:47 |
| B. Duhaime | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 10:43 | 1:02 |
| D. Chisholm | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:00 | 1:00 |
| J. Chychrun | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -5 | 0 | 23:20 | 5:52 |
| M. Fehérváry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 21:28 | 0:02 |
| M. Roy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 20:58 | 0:02 |
| R. Sandin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 19:06 | 1:11 |
| T. van Riemsdyk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 15:12 | 1:02 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Lindgren | 23 | 19 | 4 | .826 | 58:52 | Loss |
| L. Thompson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
MTL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Suzuki | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 0 | 18:25 | 4:42 |
| C. Caufield | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 16:19 | 4:37 |
| J. Evans | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 14:25 | 0:04 |
| A. Newhook | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:45 | 1:21 |
| K. Dach | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 13:44 | 1:15 |
| Z. Bolduc | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:24 | 1:18 |
| P. Danault | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:53 | 0:00 |
| J. Anderson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:40 | 0:00 |
| J. Slafkovský | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:23 | 4:40 |
| B. Gallagher | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:47 | 0:56 |
| I. Demidov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:44 | 4:41 |
| O. Kapanen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:41 | 0:00 |
| M. Matheson | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 2 | 24:04 | 0:21 |
| J. Struble | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:08 | 0:00 |
| K. Guhle | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 24:48 | 0:00 |
| L. Hutson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:14 | 4:54 |
| A. Carrier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 18:01 | 0:00 |
| N. Dobson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 16:35 | 1:11 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Dobes | 29 | 27 | 2 | .931 | 60:00 | Win |
| S. Montembeault | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
WSH
Line 2C. McMichael10:01R. Leonard10:05J. Sourdif11:13
Line 3N. Dowd12:08B. Duhaime9:41E. Frank8:43
Line 4A. Ovechkin8:27A. Beauvillier11:41D. Strome9:22
Pair 1T. Riemsdyk12:21D. Chisholm12:00
Pair 2M. Fehérváry16:53R. Sandin15:31
Pair 3M. Roy15:46J. Chychrun15:31
MTL
Line 1P. Danault13:47J. Anderson12:42B. Gallagher12:51
Line 2K. Dach12:18N. Suzuki11:58C. Caufield10:59
Line 3A. Newhook11:21Z. Bolduc11:06J. Evans9:45
Line 4J. Slafkovský8:32I. Demidov8:03O. Kapanen8:11
Pair 1M. Matheson18:09K. Guhle18:55
Pair 3A. Carrier13:10J. Struble11:08
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | WSH 3.2, MTL 3.4 | WSH 2, MTL 6 |
| Total goals | 6.6 | 8 |
| Shots on goal | WSH 26.8, MTL 28.0 | WSH 29, MTL 25 |
| Win chance | MTL 55% | MTL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL C. Caufield | 3.1 | 5 | 0.84 | 2 | 34% | 2 |
| WSH J. Chychrun | 2.9 | 2 | 0.69 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| WSH A. Ovechkin | 2.7 | 6 | 0.79 | 2 | 34% | 2 |
| MTL N. Suzuki | 2.2 | 2 | 0.95 | 3 | 27% | 1 |
| WSH A. Beauvillier | 2.1 | 0 | 0.37 | 2 | 17% | 0 |
| MTL J. Slafkovský | 2.1 | 3 | 0.72 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| MTL N. Dobson | 2.0 | 2 | 0.61 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| WSH T. Wilson | 2.0 | 1 | 0.76 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| WSH R. Leonard | 2.0 | 1 | 0.52 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| WSH A. Protas | 2.0 | 3 | 0.68 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| WSH D. Strome | 1.8 | 3 | 0.77 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| MTL O. Kapanen | 1.7 | 0 | 0.48 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| WSH C. McMichael | 1.7 | 3 | 0.52 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| WSH P. Dubois | 1.6 | 3 | 0.59 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| MTL B. Gallagher | 1.6 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MTL I. Demidov | 1.6 | 2 | 0.82 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| MTL M. Matheson | 1.6 | 3 | 0.47 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| WSH E. Frank | 1.6 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| WSH J. Sourdif | 1.5 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| MTL L. Hutson | 1.4 | 1 | 0.95 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| MTL K. Dach | 1.4 | 1 | 0.40 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| MTL P. Danault | 1.4 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| MTL A. Newhook | 1.3 | 0 | 0.39 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| MTL Z. Bolduc | 1.3 | 1 | 0.37 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| MTL J. Anderson | 1.3 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MTL K. Guhle | 1.2 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| WSH M. Roy | 1.2 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WSH R. Sandin | 1.2 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MTL J. Evans | 1.1 | 2 | 0.36 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| WSH M. Fehérváry | 1.0 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| WSH N. Dowd | 0.9 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| MTL A. Carrier | 0.9 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| WSH B. Duhaime | 0.8 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| WSH D. Chisholm | 0.7 | 1 | 0.14 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| WSH T. Riemsdyk | 0.6 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| MTL J. Struble | 0.4 | 0 | 0.16 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.