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Game Recap
WSH6
NJD5
WSH beat NJD 6-5 in overtime, with the chances close: 3.82 expected goals to 3.47. N. Hischier led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). N. Hischier had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.6. L. Thompson stopped 26 of 31.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| NJD | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
- 1st 4:45NJDE. Haula0.01 xG
- 1st 6:01WSHT. Wilson0.14 xG
- 1st 10:14WSHC. McMichael0.65 xG
- 1st 14:18WSHA. Ovechkin0.09 xG
- 2nd 0:34NJDN. Hischier0.15 xG
- 2nd 0:44NJDN. Hischier0.07 xG
- 2nd 9:15WSHA. Mangiapane0.10 xG
- 2nd 12:33WSHD. Strome0.09 xG
- 3rd 3:39NJDD. Mercer0.04 xG
- 3rd 12:28NJDD. HamiltonPP0.04 xG
- OT 4:00WSHT. Wilson0.07 xG
Team Stats
WSHNJD
37Shots on goal31
3.82Expected goals3.47
63Shot attempts59
295v5 shots on goal25
0/2Power play1/2
37Hits31
15Blocked shots15
9Penalty minutes9
12Giveaways12
8Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
WSH 3.82 xGNJD 3.47 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
WSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Strome | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 19:04 | 1:56 |
| T. Wilson | RW | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:51 | 1:52 |
| C. McMichael | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:44 | 1:36 |
| A. Ovechkin | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:29 | 3:29 |
| A. Protas | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:22 | 0:00 |
| A. Mangiapane | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:59 | 1:40 |
| N. Dowd | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 18:08 | 0:34 |
| P. Dubois | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:09 | 1:54 |
| B. Duhaime | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 5 | 16:25 | 0:26 |
| T. Raddysh | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:13 | 0:29 |
| H. Lapierre | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:39 | 1:22 |
| J. Vrana | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:19 | 0:00 |
| J. Chychrun | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 27:27 | 1:55 |
| T. van Riemsdyk | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 4 | +2 | 0 | 22:10 | 0:42 |
| J. Carlson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 28:13 | 1:41 |
| R. Sandin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 18:52 | 0:24 |
| M. Fehérváry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16:49 | 0:00 |
| D. McIlrath | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 7:00 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Thompson | 31 | 26 | 5 | .839 | 63:38 | Win |
| C. Lindgren | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NJD Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Hischier | C | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 21:21 | 2:53 |
| T. Meier | RW | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 19:10 | 1:28 |
| S. Noesen | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 5 | 12:18 | 2:01 |
| J. Bratt | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 21:14 | 2:55 |
| D. Mercer | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 19:54 | 0:35 |
| E. Haula | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16:00 | 0:34 |
| T. Tatar | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:17 | 0:34 |
| J. Hughes | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 20:50 | 2:55 |
| P. Cotter | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 12:25 | 0:00 |
| O. Palat | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 11:37 | 0:00 |
| C. Lazar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 11:04 | 0:00 |
| N. Bastian | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 10:11 | 0:00 |
| D. Hamilton | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 22:58 | 2:54 |
| J. Siegenthaler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 26:17 | 0:00 |
| B. Dillon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 25:24 | 0:00 |
| J. Kovacevic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:28 | 0:00 |
| S. Nemec | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:57 | 0:00 |
| S. Casey | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7:35 | 0:36 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Markstrom | 37 | 31 | 6 | .838 | 64:00 | OT loss |
| J. Allen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | WSH 2.9, NJD 3.3 | WSH 6, NJD 5 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 11 |
| Shots on goal | WSH 25.5, NJD 30.2 | WSH 37, NJD 31 |
| Win chance | NJD 57% | WSH won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD J. Hughes | 3.7 | 3 | 1.21 | 0 | 37% | 0 |
| NJD T. Meier | 3.0 | 2 | 0.79 | 3 | 32% | 0 |
| NJD D. Hamilton | 2.9 | 4 | 0.66 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| WSH A. Ovechkin | 2.9 | 5 | 0.81 | 1 | 35% | 1 |
| NJD J. Bratt | 2.6 | 4 | 0.98 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| NJD N. Hischier | 2.6 | 6 | 1.01 | 3 | 30% | 2 |
| WSH J. Carlson | 2.2 | 1 | 0.74 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| WSH T. Wilson | 2.2 | 4 | 0.58 | 3 | 27% | 2 |
| WSH J. Chychrun | 2.0 | 5 | 0.44 | 2 | 11% | 0 |
| WSH D. Strome | 1.9 | 3 | 0.82 | 3 | 28% | 1 |
| WSH C. McMichael | 1.7 | 1 | 0.40 | 2 | 19% | 1 |
| WSH P. Dubois | 1.7 | 0 | 0.55 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| NJD E. Haula | 1.7 | 3 | 0.49 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| NJD D. Mercer | 1.6 | 2 | 0.55 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| WSH J. Vrana | 1.5 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| NJD S. Noesen | 1.5 | 0 | 0.54 | 2 | 19% | 0 |
| WSH A. Protas | 1.5 | 1 | 0.36 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| WSH A. Mangiapane | 1.5 | 3 | 0.47 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| NJD P. Cotter | 1.4 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| WSH T. Raddysh | 1.3 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NJD T. Tatar | 1.2 | 1 | 0.38 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| NJD O. Palat | 1.2 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NJD J. Siegenthaler | 1.1 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NJD J. Kovacevic | 1.1 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| WSH B. Duhaime | 1.0 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NJD N. Bastian | 1.0 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| WSH M. Fehérváry | 1.0 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| WSH T. Riemsdyk | 1.0 | 4 | 0.22 | 2 | 3% | 0 |
| WSH N. Dowd | 1.0 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| WSH H. Lapierre | 1.0 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NJD S. Nemec | 0.9 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NJD B. Dillon | 0.9 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NJD C. Lazar | 0.9 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| WSH R. Sandin | 0.9 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NJD S. Casey | 0.8 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| WSH D. McIlrath | 0.3 | 2 | 0.15 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 15 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.