Game Recap: WSH 2, NSH 3, January 11, 2026

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Game Recap

WSH2

FinalSun, Jan 11, 2026Every game that night

NSH3

NSH beat WSH 3-2, with the chances close: 2.25 expected goals to 2.57. WSH outshot NSH 32 to 21. R. Josi led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). E. Frank had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. J. Annunen stopped 30 of 32.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
WSH	1	0	1	2
NSH	1	0	2	3

1st 5:56WSHA. OvechkinPP0.16 xG
1st 13:15NSHS. StamkosPP0.10 xG
3rd 1:12NSHC. Smith0.16 xG
3rd 3:29NSHR. JosiPP0.11 xG
3rd 9:03WSHE. FrankPP0.15 xG

Team Stats

WSHNSH

32Shots on goal21

2.57Expected goals2.25

61Shot attempts42

175v5 shots on goal15

2/5Power play2/6

21Hits16

5Blocked shots11

12Penalty minutes10

13Giveaways16

5Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WSH 2.57 xGNSH 2.25 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WSH31 on goal, 2 scored

NSH21 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Ovechkin	LW	1	1	2	2	1	0	0	2	19:26	6:21
D. Strome	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	-1	0	21:53	4:59
E. Frank	RW	1	0	1	6	1	0	0	0	18:06	3:10
R. Leonard	RW	0	1	1	1	3	0	0	0	17:18	3:52
A. Protas	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	2	20:26	0:00
A. Beauvillier	RW	0	0	0	4	1	0	-1	2	19:23	2:51
C. McMichael	LW	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	0	18:38	1:22
N. Dowd	C	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	0	18:16	0:01
B. Leason	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	9:30	0:00
J. Sourdif	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	6:17	2:44
B. Duhaime	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	5:46	0:00
H. Lapierre	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	5:23	0:00
J. Carlson	D	0	1	1	4	0	1	0	2	26:43	4:35
M. Roy	D	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	22:31	0:04
M. Fehérváry	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	22:20	0:00
R. Sandin	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	17:20	1:46
T. van Riemsdyk	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	11:35	0:00
D. Chisholm	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	11:11	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Lindgren	21	18	3	.857	58:09	Loss
L. Thompson	0	0	0	–	0:00

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Stamkos	C	1	1	2	2	3	1	0	0	19:52	6:50
R. O'Reilly	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	21:15	5:49
F. Forsberg	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	18:16	6:18
C. Smith	RW	1	0	1	2	4	0	+1	0	16:16	0:00
R. Schaefer	LW	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	11:17	0:00
E. Haula	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	17:45	2:08
M. McCarron	C	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	2	15:57	0:00
L. Evangelista	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	15:49	5:49
M. Bunting	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	0	14:40	2:33
M. Wood	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	11:21	2:11
F. Svechkov	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	8:57	1:11
T. Jost	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	8:42	0:02
R. Josi	D	1	2	3	2	0	0	+1	2	21:53	5:58
B. Skjei	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	22:45	0:15
N. Hague	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	18:08	0:00
N. Blankenburg	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	+1	0	17:43	2:56
A. Wilsby	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	2	16:20	0:00
N. Perbix	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	2	15:38	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Annunen	32	30	2	.938	60:00	Win
J. Saros	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

WSH

Line 1A. Ovechkin11:14D. Strome15:13A. Protas16:27

Line 2R. Leonard11:48C. McMichael12:19J. Sourdif3:33

Line 3A. Beauvillier13:42N. Dowd12:03E. Frank13:22

Line 4B. Leason9:30H. Lapierre5:23B. Duhaime4:02

Pair 1M. Fehérváry16:20M. Roy18:21

Pair 2J. Carlson16:17R. Sandin14:27

Pair 3T. Riemsdyk8:58D. Chisholm10:41

NSH

Line 1M. McCarron11:49C. Smith11:37R. Schaefer11:17

Line 2S. Stamkos12:10E. Haula12:36F. Forsberg10:56

Line 3R. O'Reilly12:36L. Evangelista9:47M. Bunting11:54

Line 4T. Jost8:00M. Wood9:10F. Svechkov6:12

Pair 1B. Skjei17:38A. Wilsby15:30

Pair 2R. Josi13:52N. Perbix12:46

Pair 3N. Hague13:47N. Blankenburg12:03

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamAnthony Beauvillier WSH Faces NSH, his team until May 20244 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WSH 3.5, NSH 2.9	WSH 2, NSH 3
Total goals	6.3	5
Shots on goal	WSH 27.6, NSH 29.2	WSH 32, NSH 21
Win chance	WSH 58%	NSH won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NSH F. Forsberg	3.1	1	0.86	1	34%	0
WSH A. Ovechkin	2.9	2	0.94	2	37%	1
NSH R. Josi	2.5	2	0.74	3	19%	1
NSH L. Evangelista	2.5	2	0.62	0	18%	0
NSH S. Stamkos	2.5	2	0.77	2	33%	1
WSH A. Beauvillier	2.3	4	0.46	0	19%	0
WSH R. Leonard	2.2	1	0.68	1	19%	0
WSH C. McMichael	2.1	3	0.69	0	24%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	2.0	0	0.76	1	25%	0
NSH M. Bunting	1.9	2	0.50	0	20%	0
WSH A. Protas	1.9	3	0.70	0	23%	0
WSH D. Strome	1.9	1	0.90	1	26%	0
WSH J. Carlson	1.7	4	0.67	1	13%	0
NSH E. Haula	1.7	1	0.38	0	16%	0
WSH J. Sourdif	1.7	1	0.59	0	22%	0
WSH E. Frank	1.6	6	0.49	1	19%	1
NSH B. Skjei	1.5	0	0.38	0	10%	0
NSH M. Wood	1.3	3	0.29	0	13%	0
NSH M. McCarron	1.3	3	0.21	0	10%	0
NSH C. Smith	1.2	2	0.22	1	9%	1
NSH N. Blankenburg	1.2	0	0.30	0	8%	0
NSH F. Svechkov	1.2	0	0.24	0	10%	0
WSH M. Roy	1.2	2	0.34	0	6%	0
WSH N. Dowd	1.1	1	0.37	0	16%	0
NSH T. Jost	1.0	0	0.20	0	8%	0
WSH R. Sandin	1.0	2	0.36	0	7%	0
NSH A. Wilsby	1.0	1	0.18	0	4%	0
WSH M. Fehérváry	1.0	0	0.32	0	8%	0
NSH R. Schaefer	1.0	1	0.24	1	13%	0
NSH N. Perbix	1.0	1	0.26	0	6%	0
NSH N. Hague	0.9	0	0.22	0	5%	0
WSH B. Leason	0.9	0	0.22	0	9%	0
WSH D. Chisholm	0.9	0	0.18	0	4%	0
WSH B. Duhaime	0.8	1	0.20	0	10%	0
WSH H. Lapierre	0.7	0	0.22	0	6%	0
WSH T. Riemsdyk	0.6	1	0.20	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.