Game Recap: WSH 4, NSH 3, October 29, 2026

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Game Recap

WSH4

FinalThu, Oct 29, 2026Every game that night

NSH3

WSH beat NSH 4-3, with the chances close: 2.96 expected goals to 3.23. R. Josi led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). R. Josi had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.6. C. Lindgren stopped 24 of 27.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
WSH	1	2	1	4
NSH	1	1	1	3

1st 12:48NSHF. ForsbergPP0.19 xG
1st 16:13WSHC. Hutson0.03 xG
2nd 4:15WSHB. Jenner0.35 xG
2nd 9:09NSHF. Forsberg0.19 xG
2nd 13:46WSHC. Hutson0.12 xG
3rd 6:34NSHR. Colton0.68 xG
3rd 10:09WSHA. Tuch0.08 xG

Team Stats

WSHNSH

29Shots on goal27

2.96Expected goals3.23

57Shot attempts52

255v5 shots on goal19

0/2Power play1/3

23Hits17

9Blocked shots9

6Penalty minutes4

17Giveaways17

3Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WSH 2.96 xGNSH 3.23 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WSH29 on goal, 4 scored

NSH28 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Protas	LW	0	2	2	0	0	0	+2	0	19:33	0:01
A. Tuch	RW	1	0	1	1	2	2	0	0	17:18	1:38
P. Dubois	C	0	1	1	2	1	1	+2	0	17:07	1:44
B. Jenner	C	1	0	1	1	2	0	+1	0	16:09	0:01
J. Kyrou	RW	0	1	1	4	1	1	+1	0	14:31	2:13
T. Wilson	RW	0	0	0	3	3	0	+2	0	19:43	2:12
D. Strome	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	15:54	2:23
R. Leonard	RW	0	0	0	3	2	0	-1	0	13:53	1:46
J. Sourdif	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	12:50	0:01
I. Protas	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	11:37	1:36
A. Ovechkin	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	10:56	2:12
A. Beauvillier	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	9:40	0:00
C. Hutson	D	2	0	2	2	1	0	+2	0	18:26	1:47
J. St. Ivany	D	0	2	2	0	2	0	+1	0	15:12	0:00
J. Chychrun	D	0	1	1	5	2	2	-1	2	22:30	2:15
M. Fehérváry	D	0	1	1	1	2	0	+1	2	19:49	0:01
M. Roy	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	+1	0	23:07	0:10
T. Liljegren	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	15:54	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Lindgren	27	24	3	.889	60:00	Win
L. Thompson	0	0	0	–	0:00

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
F. Forsberg	LW	2	0	2	3	1	1	+1	0	21:39	3:29
R. O'Reilly	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	-1	0	21:42	3:30
A. Edstrom	C	0	1	1	2	3	0	0	0	17:15	0:00
R. Colton	C	1	0	1	3	3	0	-1	0	15:04	0:00
S. Stamkos	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	20:26	3:34
J. Drury	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	18:15	0:00
J. Marchessault	RW	0	0	0	5	1	0	-1	0	17:10	3:05
M. Bourque	C	0	0	0	3	2	0	-1	0	17:08	0:59
A. Kerfoot	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-2	0	12:29	0:34
M. Wood	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12:29	0:34
N. Hoglander	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	10:00	0:16
R. Josi	D	0	3	3	6	0	1	+1	0	22:56	3:30
B. Skjei	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	19:47	0:35
N. Perbix	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	18:09	0:13
A. Wilsby	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	18:06	0:01
J. Struble	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	14:58	0:00
D. Hunt	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	11:51	0:00
N. Hague	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-3	2	8:39	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Saros	29	25	4	.862	57:57	Loss
J. Annunen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

WSH

Line 1T. Wilson13:57P. Dubois15:01A. Protas17:34

Line 2D. Strome13:31A. Tuch12:05J. Kyrou12:18

Line 3B. Jenner12:02J. Sourdif12:07R. Leonard12:07

Line 4A. Beauvillier9:40I. Protas10:01A. Ovechkin8:44

Pair 1C. Hutson16:12J. Ivany14:28

Pair 2M. Roy18:17J. Chychrun20:02

Pair 3M. Fehérváry16:25T. Liljegren14:54

NSH

Line 1S. Stamkos14:49R. O'Reilly14:14M. Bourque16:09

Line 2R. Colton15:04J. Drury16:10A. Edstrom13:42

Line 3F. Forsberg16:07N. Hoglander9:44M. Wood11:33

Line 4J. Marchessault12:02A. Kerfoot9:47

Pair 1R. Josi15:58A. Wilsby16:40

Pair 2B. Skjei16:38N. Perbix15:23

Pair 3N. Hague8:38J. Struble14:57

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

13 of 19 overs hit (68%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
WSH A. Ovechkin	2.5	+130	-160	3	Over
WSH A. Tuch	2.5	+102	-115	1	Under
NSH F. Forsberg	2.5	-155	+135	3	Over
WSH J. Chychrun	2.5	-105	-120	5	Over
WSH J. Kyrou	2.5	+145	-176	4	Over
NSH J. Marchessault	2.5	+148	-160	5	Over
NSH R. Josi	2.5	+120	-115	6	Over
NSH S. Stamkos	2.5	+100	-115	3	Over
WSH A. Protas	1.5	-105	-110	0	Under
WSH B. Jenner	1.5	+110	-130	1	Under
WSH C. Hutson	1.5	-115	+100	2	Over
WSH D. Strome	1.5	-130	+102	0	Under
NSH M. Bourque	1.5	-125	+110	3	Over
NSH M. Wood	1.5	+130	-140	0	Under
WSH P. Dubois	1.5	+106	-120	2	Over
NSH R. Colton	1.5	-130	+100	3	Over
WSH R. Leonard	1.5	-165	+140	3	Over
NSH R. O'Reilly	1.5	-175	+140	0	Under
WSH T. Wilson	1.5	-165	+140	3	Over

5 of 33 overs hit (15%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
WSH A. Beauvillier	0.5	+650	-800	0	Under
NSH A. Edstrom	0.5	+550	-900	0	Under
NSH A. Kerfoot	0.5	+450	-900	0	Under
WSH A. Ovechkin	0.5	+300	-390	0	Under
WSH A. Protas	0.5	+440	-650	0	Under
WSH A. Tuch	0.5	+240	-300	1	Over
NSH A. Wilsby	0.5	+1600	-2800	0	Under
WSH B. Jenner	0.5	+500	-750	1	Over
NSH B. Skjei	0.5	+1100	-2800	0	Under
WSH C. Hutson	0.5	+650	-1400	2	Over
WSH D. Strome	0.5	+260	-380	0	Under
NSH F. Forsberg	0.5	+180	-240	2	Over
WSH I. Protas	0.5	+550	-1200	0	Under
WSH J. Chychrun	0.5	+400	-750	0	Under
NSH J. Drury	0.5	+650	-800	0	Under
WSH J. Kyrou	0.5	+280	-390	0	Under
NSH J. Marchessault	0.5	+290	-390	0	Under
WSH J. Sourdif	0.5	+600	-1000	0	Under
NSH M. Bourque	0.5	+390	-500	0	Under
WSH M. Fehérváry	0.5	+1400	-3500	0	Under
WSH M. Roy	0.5	+1600	-3500	0	Under
NSH M. Wood	0.5	+440	-600	0	Under
NSH N. Hague	0.5	+2000	-4000	0	Under
NSH N. Hoglander	0.5	+600	-750	0	Under
NSH N. Perbix	0.5	+1900	-4000	0	Under
WSH P. Dubois	0.5	+410	-500	0	Under
NSH R. Colton	0.5	+500	-550	1	Over
NSH R. Josi	0.5	+480	-750	0	Under
WSH R. Leonard	0.5	+340	-475	0	Under
NSH R. O'Reilly	0.5	+210	-285	0	Under
NSH S. Stamkos	0.5	+165	-225	0	Under
WSH T. Liljegren	0.5	+1800	-3500	0	Under
WSH T. Wilson	0.5	+275	-350	0	Under

6 of 19 overs hit (32%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
NSH A. Kerfoot	0.5	+250	-350	0	Under
WSH A. Ovechkin	0.5	+300	-350	0	Under
WSH A. Protas	0.5	+280	-325	2	Over
WSH A. Tuch	0.5	+210	-235	0	Under
WSH C. Hutson	0.5	+210	-245	0	Under
WSH D. Strome	0.5	+120	-145	0	Under
NSH F. Forsberg	0.5	+118	-140	0	Under
WSH I. Protas	0.5	+270	-350	0	Under
WSH J. Chychrun	0.5	+140	-170	1	Over
WSH J. Kyrou	0.5	+162	-190	1	Over
NSH J. Marchessault	0.5	+190	-225	0	Under
NSH M. Bourque	0.5	+280	-295	0	Under
NSH M. Wood	0.5	+330	-425	0	Under
WSH P. Dubois	0.5	+185	-210	1	Over
NSH R. Josi	0.5	-106	-115	3	Over
WSH R. Leonard	0.5	+285	-300	0	Under
NSH R. O'Reilly	0.5	+130	-140	1	Over
NSH S. Stamkos	0.5	+160	-175	0	Under
WSH T. Wilson	0.5	+240	-275	0	Under

9 of 19 overs hit (47%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
NSH A. Kerfoot	0.5	+140	-190	0	Under
WSH A. Ovechkin	0.5	+136	-140	0	Under
WSH A. Protas	0.5	+155	-185	2	Over
WSH A. Tuch	0.5	-110	+105	1	Over
WSH C. Hutson	0.5	+145	-175	2	Over
WSH D. Strome	0.5	-145	+125	0	Under
NSH F. Forsberg	0.5	-195	+160	2	Over
WSH I. Protas	0.5	+165	-205	0	Under
WSH J. Chychrun	0.5	-120	-105	1	Over
WSH J. Kyrou	0.5	-110	+100	1	Over
NSH J. Marchessault	0.5	-102	-115	0	Under
NSH M. Bourque	0.5	+138	-155	0	Under
NSH M. Wood	0.5	+165	-220	0	Under
WSH P. Dubois	0.5	+110	-132	1	Over
NSH R. Josi	0.5	-145	+135	3	Over
WSH R. Leonard	0.5	+140	-155	0	Under
NSH R. O'Reilly	0.5	-160	+140	1	Over
NSH S. Stamkos	0.5	-174	+145	0	Under
WSH T. Wilson	0.5	+112	-125	0	Under

3 of 18 overs hit (17%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
WSH A. Ovechkin	0.5	+360	-450	0	Under
WSH A. Tuch	0.5	+400	-1100	0	Under
NSH B. Skjei	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
WSH C. Hutson	0.5	+390	-1000	0	Under
WSH D. Strome	0.5	+270	-500	0	Under
NSH F. Forsberg	0.5	+175	-215	1	Over
WSH I. Protas	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
WSH J. Chychrun	0.5	+310	-450	0	Under
WSH J. Kyrou	0.5	+300	-325	0	Under
NSH J. Marchessault	0.5	+380	-425	0	Under
NSH M. Bourque	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
NSH M. Wood	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
WSH P. Dubois	0.5	+340	-750	0	Under
NSH R. Josi	0.5	+165	-210	1	Over
WSH R. Leonard	0.5	+390	-1000	0	Under
NSH R. O'Reilly	0.5	+210	-295	1	Over
NSH S. Stamkos	0.5	+190	-235	0	Under
WSH T. Wilson	0.5	+380	-525	0	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
NSH J. Saros	25.5	-105	-125	25	Under
WSH C. Lindgren	23.5	-115	+100	24	Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WSH 3.1, NSH 3.3	WSH 4, NSH 3
Total goals	6.4	7
Shots on goal	WSH 27.1, NSH 28.1	WSH 29, NSH 27
Win chance	NSH 53%	WSH won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NSH F. Forsberg	3.0	3	1.09	2	39%	2
WSH A. Tuch	2.6	1	0.76	1	30%	1
NSH R. Josi	2.6	6	0.87	3	20%	0
NSH S. Stamkos	2.5	3	0.96	0	38%	0
WSH J. Chychrun	2.4	5	0.59	1	18%	0
WSH A. Ovechkin	2.3	3	0.61	0	26%	0
WSH J. Kyrou	2.2	4	0.63	1	25%	0
WSH R. Leonard	2.2	3	0.52	0	19%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	2.1	0	0.99	1	31%	0
WSH T. Wilson	2.0	3	0.68	0	27%	0
NSH J. Marchessault	2.0	5	0.67	0	26%	0
WSH B. Jenner	2.0	1	0.47	1	20%	1
NSH R. Colton	2.0	3	0.44	1	18%	1
NSH M. Bourque	2.0	3	0.55	0	22%	0
WSH D. Strome	1.9	0	0.76	0	24%	0
WSH A. Protas	1.8	0	0.56	2	20%	0
NSH J. Drury	1.6	0	0.46	0	18%	0
WSH C. Hutson	1.6	2	0.37	2	8%	2
WSH P. Dubois	1.5	2	0.62	1	20%	0
NSH A. Edstrom	1.5	2	0.35	1	19%	0
NSH M. Wood	1.5	0	0.40	0	17%	0
WSH A. Beauvillier	1.4	1	0.26	0	12%	0
NSH A. Wilsby	1.3	1	0.36	0	6%	0
WSH J. Sourdif	1.3	0	0.38	0	15%	0
NSH A. Kerfoot	1.3	0	0.55	0	20%	0
NSH B. Skjei	1.2	0	0.37	0	10%	0
WSH I. Protas	1.1	1	0.38	0	11%	0
WSH M. Roy	1.0	2	0.25	0	5%	0
NSH N. Hoglander	1.0	0	0.28	0	13%	0
NSH N. Perbix	0.9	0	0.24	0	6%	0
WSH T. Liljegren	0.9	0	0.22	0	5%	0
WSH M. Fehérváry	0.9	1	0.32	1	7%	0
NSH N. Hague	0.8	0	0.17	0	5%	0
NSH D. Hunt	0.8	1	0.18	0	3%	0
WSH J. Ivany	0.7	0	0.18	2	2%	0
NSH J. Struble	0.5	0	0.18	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.