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Game Recap
WSH1
NYI4
NYI beat WSH 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.82 expected goals to 2.14. M. Gatcomb led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). T. Raddysh had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. I. Sorokin stopped 28 of 29.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| NYI | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
- 1st 7:06NYIB. Horvat0.16 xG
- 1st 9:00NYIM. Gatcomb0.10 xG
- 2nd 7:26WSHA. OvechkinPP0.04 xG
- 2nd 10:26NYIM. Gatcomb0.17 xG
- 3rd 4:20NYIJ. Pageau0.59 xG
Team Stats
WSHNYI
29Shots on goal22
2.14Expected goals3.82
60Shot attempts64
275v5 shots on goal19
1/2Power play0/2
20Hits26
22Blocked shots18
4Penalty minutes4
13Giveaways11
8Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
WSH 2.14 xGNYI 3.82 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
WSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Wilson | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:17 | 2:01 |
| A. Ovechkin | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:10 | 2:17 |
| D. Strome | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:17 | 2:01 |
| C. McMichael | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:39 | 0:16 |
| P. Dubois | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 16:20 | 0:16 |
| R. Leonard | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:21 | 0:00 |
| B. Duhaime | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:54 | 0:00 |
| N. Dowd | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 13:48 | 0:00 |
| A. Mangiapane | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:44 | 0:16 |
| L. Eller | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:50 | 0:00 |
| A. Beauvillier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12:49 | 0:00 |
| T. Raddysh | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 11:11 | 0:00 |
| J. Carlson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 21:22 | 2:01 |
| M. Fehérváry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 20:31 | 0:00 |
| M. Roy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 0 | 20:28 | 0:00 |
| R. Sandin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 0 | 20:23 | 0:16 |
| J. Chychrun | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:37 | 2:01 |
| T. van Riemsdyk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:19 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Lindgren | 22 | 18 | 4 | .818 | 60:00 | Loss |
| H. Shepard | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NYI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. MacLean | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 11:07 | 0:00 |
| M. Gatcomb | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 11:00 | 0:00 |
| B. Horvat | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:37 | 2:13 |
| A. Lee | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:47 | 2:09 |
| J. Pageau | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 16:38 | 1:14 |
| S. Holmstrom | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:21 | 1:17 |
| M. Martin | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 9:39 | 0:00 |
| K. Palmieri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18:12 | 2:43 |
| M. Tsyplakov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:11 | 0:42 |
| C. Cizikas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 14:43 | 0:27 |
| P. Engvall | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:26 | 0:26 |
| H. Fasching | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:46 | 0:21 |
| A. Romanov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 20:34 | 0:00 |
| T. DeAngelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 24:06 | 2:45 |
| N. Dobson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:30 | 3:34 |
| S. Mayfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:01 | 0:00 |
| R. Pulock | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 18:41 | 1:06 |
| A. Pelech | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:15 | 0:18 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Sorokin | 29 | 28 | 1 | .966 | 60:00 | Win |
| M. Hogberg | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | WSH 3.2, NYI 3.0 | WSH 1, NYI 4 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | WSH 27.7, NYI 29.0 | WSH 29, NYI 22 |
| Win chance | WSH 53% | NYI won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH A. Ovechkin | 3.4 | 5 | 0.91 | 1 | 37% | 1 |
| NYI B. Horvat | 2.8 | 2 | 0.72 | 1 | 31% | 1 |
| NYI A. Lee | 2.5 | 1 | 0.56 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| WSH J. Chychrun | 2.4 | 3 | 0.56 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NYI K. Palmieri | 2.3 | 1 | 0.65 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| NYI N. Dobson | 2.2 | 0 | 0.55 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NYI T. DeAngelo | 2.2 | 3 | 0.56 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| WSH T. Wilson | 2.1 | 1 | 0.69 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| WSH J. Carlson | 2.1 | 1 | 0.63 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| WSH P. Dubois | 1.8 | 2 | 0.70 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| WSH D. Strome | 1.8 | 2 | 0.82 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| WSH C. McMichael | 1.8 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| WSH A. Beauvillier | 1.6 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NYI P. Engvall | 1.6 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NYI A. Pelech | 1.6 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYI J. Pageau | 1.5 | 2 | 0.50 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| NYI A. Romanov | 1.4 | 2 | 0.26 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| NYI M. Tsyplakov | 1.3 | 3 | 0.39 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NYI S. Holmstrom | 1.3 | 1 | 0.49 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| NYI R. Pulock | 1.3 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| WSH M. Roy | 1.2 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYI C. Cizikas | 1.2 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WSH T. Raddysh | 1.1 | 5 | 0.26 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NYI H. Fasching | 1.1 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| WSH L. Eller | 1.1 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| WSH A. Mangiapane | 1.1 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| WSH B. Duhaime | 1.0 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WSH T. Riemsdyk | 1.0 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| WSH R. Sandin | 1.0 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WSH M. Fehérváry | 0.9 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| WSH N. Dowd | 0.9 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NYI M. Gatcomb | 0.8 | 4 | 0.24 | 2 | 14% | 2 |
| NYI K. MacLean | 0.8 | 0 | 0.17 | 2 | 9% | 0 |
| NYI S. Mayfield | 0.7 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NYI M. Martin | 0.6 | 0 | 0.10 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.