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Game Recap
WSH4
FinalSat, Oct 11, 2025Every game that night
NYI2

WSH beat NYI 4-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.45 expected goals to 2.30. A. Protas led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). A. Protas had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. L. Thompson stopped 34 of 36.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
WSH2204
NYI0112
  1. 1st 1:50WSHM. Fehérváry0.30 xG
  2. 1st 13:52WSHA. Protas0.15 xG
  3. 2nd 9:50WSHR. Leonard0.05 xG
  4. 2nd 15:30WSHA. Protas0.12 xG
  5. 2nd 18:51NYIA. DuclairPP0.09 xG
  6. 3rd 4:28NYIM. SchaeferPP0.39 xG

Team Stats

WSHNYI
29Shots on goal36
4.45Expected goals2.30
67Shot attempts70
255v5 shots on goal20
0/2Power play2/3
23Hits33
20Blocked shots22
4Penalty minutes4
17Giveaways19
6Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WSH 4.45 xGNYI 2.30 xGGoal

012341st2nd3rdWSH goal, 1:50WSH goal, 13:52WSH goal, 9:50WSH goal, 15:30NYI goal, 18:51NYI goal, 4:28

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WSH29 on goal, 4 scored
NYI35 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WSH Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
A. ProtasLW213500+3019:191:39
T. WilsonRW011121+2019:182:18
A. OvechkinLW011220+1017:283:24
R. LeonardRW101230+1010:010:30
P. DuboisC000401+2018:302:17
D. StromeC000201+1018:082:20
C. McMichaelLW000211+2016:011:37
N. DowdC0001010014:220:06
B. DuhaimeLW0000600013:500:01
J. SourdifC0001200012:370:00
A. BeauvillierRW0004100010:520:06
H. LapierreC000001009:090:00
J. ChychrunD022001+3219:451:42
J. CarlsonD011203+1022:442:24
M. FehérváryD101314+1018:530:00
R. SandinD000032+1021:011:36
M. RoyD0000240220:060:00
T. van RiemsdykD000000+2015:020:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
L. Thompson36342.94459:44Win
C. Lindgren000–0:00

NYI Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
K. PalmieriC022222-2220:413:10
B. HorvatC022500-1020:373:10
A. DuclairLW1012000019:253:10
M. BarzalC0003020221:283:10
E. HeinemanLW000260-1015:540:00
A. LeeLW0002010015:420:00
J. PageauC000021-3015:350:00
M. ShabanovRW000300-2012:530:00
S. HolmstromRW000002-3012:490:00
M. TsyplakovRW0002200011:140:00
C. CizikasC0000700010:570:00
M. GatcombC000170008:330:00
M. SchaeferD1018010026:042:40
S. MayfieldD000202-1018:480:00
T. DeAngeloD000203-2018:200:30
R. PulockD000132-1017:220:00
A. PelechD000002-1016:570:00
A. RomanovD000144-3016:320:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
I. Sorokin29254.86256:09Loss
D. Rittich000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

WSH

Line 1A. Protas14:47T. Wilson15:14P. Dubois13:47
Line 2D. Strome13:36C. McMichael12:23A. Ovechkin11:50
Line 3N. Dowd12:21B. Duhaime11:42J. Sourdif11:50
Line 4A. Beauvillier10:30H. Lapierre8:53R. Leonard9:15
Pair 1M. Roy18:18R. Sandin17:37
Pair 2J. Chychrun16:20T. Riemsdyk14:17
Pair 3J. Carlson15:51M. Fehérváry15:04

NYI

Line 1K. Palmieri14:38M. Barzal15:51A. Lee13:12
Line 2E. Heineman14:27A. Duclair13:20B. Horvat12:50
Line 3J. Pageau11:32S. Holmstrom11:04M. Shabanov11:42
Line 4C. Cizikas9:28M. Tsyplakov9:53M. Gatcomb8:33
Pair 1S. Mayfield17:11M. Schaefer19:56
Pair 2T. DeAngelo16:25A. Romanov15:04
Pair 3A. Pelech14:25R. Pulock14:04

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreWSH 3.0, NYI 3.0WSH 4, NYI 2
Total goals6.06
Shots on goalWSH 26.2, NYI 29.9WSH 29, NYI 36
Win chanceNYI 51%WSH won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
WSH A. Ovechkin3.420.90137%0
NYI B. Horvat3.150.79232%0
NYI M. Barzal2.830.93024%0
NYI A. Lee2.720.60027%0
WSH J. Chychrun2.600.60217%0
NYI K. Palmieri2.520.70229%0
NYI T. DeAngelo2.420.61014%0
WSH T. Wilson2.210.75129%0
WSH J. Carlson2.120.62111%0
WSH C. McMichael2.020.56022%0
WSH A. Protas1.950.71321%2
WSH D. Strome1.820.84025%0
WSH A. Beauvillier1.840.33013%0
WSH P. Dubois1.740.64021%0
WSH R. Leonard1.520.19110%1
NYI A. Romanov1.510.2606%0
NYI M. Tsyplakov1.420.40012%0
NYI A. Pelech1.400.2604%0
WSH M. Roy1.300.3406%0
NYI A. Duclair1.320.38119%1
NYI J. Pageau1.300.46015%0
NYI C. Cizikas1.300.26011%0
NYI M. Gatcomb1.310.28017%0
NYI R. Pulock1.310.2907%0
NYI S. Holmstrom1.200.46019%0
WSH J. Sourdif1.110.23011%0
WSH R. Sandin1.100.3405%0
WSH B. Duhaime1.000.25011%0
WSH N. Dowd1.010.31015%0
WSH M. Fehérváry1.030.2816%1
NYI S. Mayfield0.920.1805%0
NYI E. Heineman0.920.23012%0
WSH T. Riemsdyk0.800.2002%0
WSH H. Lapierre0.700.2909%0

Shots on goal: 17 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.