Game Recap: WSH 4, NYI 1, November 30, 2025

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Game Recap

WSH4

FinalSun, Nov 30, 2025Every game that night

NYI1

WSH beat NYI 4-1 despite fewer good chances: 3.15 expected goals to 3.93. NYI outshot WSH 31 to 19. T. Wilson led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). A. Lee had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.6. L. Thompson stopped 30 of 31.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
WSH	1	1	2	4
NYI	0	0	1	1

1st 7:37WSHT. WilsonPP0.07 xG
2nd 13:58WSHT. Wilson0.18 xG
3rd 13:43NYIB. HorvatPP0.46 xG
3rd 18:49WSHA. ProtasEN0.35 xG
3rd 19:29WSHA. OvechkinEN0.94 xG

Team Stats

WSHNYI

19Shots on goal31

3.15Expected goals3.93

47Shot attempts61

165v5 shots on goal24

1/2Power play1/3

21Hits23

13Blocked shots13

6Penalty minutes4

7Giveaways16

3Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WSH 3.15 xGNYI 3.93 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WSH19 on goal, 4 scored

NYI30 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Wilson	RW	2	1	3	3	2	1	+2	2	19:29	1:18
A. Ovechkin	LW	1	1	2	2	1	0	+1	0	14:54	2:12
A. Protas	LW	1	0	1	1	1	0	+2	0	21:19	0:00
A. Beauvillier	RW	0	1	1	2	2	1	+1	2	16:55	0:53
R. Leonard	RW	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	14:18	1:16
C. McMichael	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	20:34	0:54
J. Sourdif	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	0	16:54	0:00
B. Duhaime	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	14:42	0:00
D. Strome	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	0	14:31	1:19
E. Frank	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9:16	0:56
H. Lapierre	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	7:11	0:00
S. Milano	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	6:39	0:00
M. Roy	D	0	1	1	2	3	2	+1	0	22:38	0:00
J. Chychrun	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	+2	2	22:36	1:52
J. Carlson	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	0	20:46	0:20
R. Sandin	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	+1	0	17:40	0:00
M. Fehérváry	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	17:18	0:00
T. van Riemsdyk	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	17:01	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Thompson	31	30	1	.968	60:00	Win
C. Lindgren	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Horvat	C	1	0	1	4	1	2	-1	0	21:31	3:50
M. Barzal	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-2	0	23:54	4:36
S. Holmstrom	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	16:47	1:29
A. Lee	LW	0	0	0	6	1	0	-2	0	16:41	3:50
J. Drouin	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	-2	0	16:04	0:43
M. Shabanov	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	15:54	3:42
E. Heineman	LW	0	0	0	2	5	0	0	0	15:13	1:23
C. Ritchie	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	14:49	1:29
A. Duclair	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	14:27	0:00
K. MacLean	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	10:34	0:00
C. Cizikas	C	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	10:29	0:00
M. Tsyplakov	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	8:43	0:00
M. Schaefer	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	-2	2	26:12	4:01
R. Pulock	D	0	1	1	4	2	4	-2	0	24:02	0:14
T. DeAngelo	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	19:57	1:18
A. Pelech	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	19:26	0:00
S. Mayfield	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	14:07	0:00
T. Mitchell	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	11:25	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Sorokin	17	15	2	.882	57:33	Loss
D. Rittich	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

WSH

Line 1J. Sourdif16:54A. Protas17:18T. Wilson14:40

Line 2C. McMichael15:33B. Duhaime13:16R. Leonard13:02

Line 3A. Ovechkin11:57D. Strome12:03A. Beauvillier13:03

Line 4H. Lapierre7:11E. Frank8:20S. Milano6:39

Pair 1J. Chychrun18:17M. Roy17:38

Pair 2R. Sandin16:29T. Riemsdyk14:51

Pair 3J. Carlson17:18M. Fehérváry15:41

NYI

Line 1A. Duclair13:18S. Holmstrom13:18C. Ritchie12:40

Line 2J. Drouin14:03M. Barzal17:35A. Lee11:33

Line 3B. Horvat14:35E. Heineman13:30M. Shabanov11:32

Line 4C. Cizikas9:35K. MacLean9:33M. Tsyplakov8:43

Pair 1M. Schaefer19:25R. Pulock20:51

Pair 2A. Pelech16:57T. DeAngelo17:30

Pair 3S. Mayfield14:07T. Mitchell11:25

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WSH 3.0, NYI 2.9	WSH 4, NYI 1
Total goals	5.9	5
Shots on goal	WSH 27.2, NYI 28.6	WSH 19, NYI 31
Win chance	WSH 52%	WSH won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NYI B. Horvat	3.2	4	0.84	1	34%	1
WSH A. Ovechkin	3.1	2	0.92	2	38%	1
NYI M. Barzal	2.9	2	0.98	0	27%	0
NYI M. Schaefer	2.8	1	0.67	1	18%	0
WSH J. Chychrun	2.7	0	0.63	0	18%	0
NYI A. Lee	2.6	6	0.58	0	26%	0
WSH A. Beauvillier	2.2	2	0.42	1	18%	0
WSH R. Leonard	2.1	1	0.43	1	16%	0
WSH C. McMichael	2.1	0	0.56	0	22%	0
WSH T. Wilson	2.0	3	0.73	3	29%	2
WSH A. Protas	1.9	1	0.64	1	21%	1
WSH J. Carlson	1.9	1	0.59	0	10%	0
WSH D. Strome	1.8	2	0.88	0	26%	0
NYI E. Heineman	1.7	2	0.50	0	23%	0
NYI T. DeAngelo	1.7	1	0.43	0	10%	0
NYI J. Drouin	1.5	2	0.71	0	18%	0
NYI M. Shabanov	1.5	1	0.46	0	16%	0
NYI A. Pelech	1.5	2	0.27	0	4%	0
NYI C. Ritchie	1.4	0	0.24	0	13%	0
WSH J. Sourdif	1.4	2	0.31	0	15%	0
WSH M. Roy	1.2	2	0.27	1	5%	0
NYI R. Pulock	1.2	4	0.31	1	6%	0
WSH E. Frank	1.1	0	0.37	0	13%	0
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.1	1	0.43	0	18%	0
NYI A. Duclair	1.0	2	0.29	0	15%	0
WSH R. Sandin	1.0	1	0.30	0	5%	0
WSH M. Fehérváry	1.0	0	0.27	0	6%	0
NYI M. Tsyplakov	0.9	0	0.23	0	8%	0
NYI S. Mayfield	0.8	1	0.17	0	4%	0
WSH S. Milano	0.8	1	0.28	0	12%	0
NYI C. Cizikas	0.8	1	0.19	0	7%	0
WSH B. Duhaime	0.8	1	0.20	0	10%	0
NYI K. MacLean	0.8	1	0.16	0	7%	0
WSH T. Riemsdyk	0.7	0	0.18	0	3%	0
WSH H. Lapierre	0.7	0	0.24	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 26 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.