Game Recap: WSH 1, NYR 0, October 12, 2025

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Game Recap

WSH1

FinalSun, Oct 12, 2025Every game that night

NYR0

WSH beat NYR 1-0 despite fewer good chances: 2.17 expected goals to 2.94. NYR outshot WSH 35 to 21. M. Zibanejad had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. C. Lindgren stopped 35 of 35.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
WSH	0	1	0	1
NYR	0	0	0	0

2nd 13:47WSHA. Beauvillier0.05 xG

Team Stats

WSHNYR

21Shots on goal35

2.17Expected goals2.94

50Shot attempts71

205v5 shots on goal29

0/1Power play0/2

26Hits18

18Blocked shots15

4Penalty minutes2

17Giveaways14

3Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WSH 2.17 xGNYR 2.94 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WSH21 on goal, 1 scored

NYR35 on goal, 0 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Ovechkin	LW	0	1	1	3	4	0	+1	0	14:47	1:48
A. Beauvillier	RW	1	0	1	4	3	0	+1	2	14:44	0:00
T. Wilson	RW	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	2	19:20	0:43
A. Protas	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	18:32	0:48
N. Dowd	C	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	16:13	0:11
P. Dubois	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	15:32	1:00
C. McMichael	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	15:32	0:49
D. Strome	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	14:49	1:00
B. Duhaime	LW	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	0	13:46	0:12
R. Leonard	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	12:14	0:00
J. Sourdif	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	10:57	0:12
S. Milano	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	10:07	0:00
D. Chisholm	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	0	14:29	0:00
J. Carlson	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	22:02	1:00
J. Chychrun	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	21:23	1:17
R. Sandin	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	21:19	1:00
M. Roy	D	0	0	0	1	0	5	0	0	20:29	0:00
M. Fehérváry	D	0	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	19:45	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Lindgren	35	35	0	1.000	60:00	Win
L. Thompson	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Panarin	LW	1	0	0	-1	0	21:03	2:55
M. Zibanejad	C	7	0	0	-1	0	20:54	2:55
A. Lafrenière	LW	4	2	2	-1	0	20:47	2:53
J. Miller	C	3	4	0	0	2	20:31	2:57
W. Cuylle	LW	4	1	2	0	0	17:34	1:05
C. Sheary	LW	3	0	1	0	0	15:59	1:03
S. Carrick	C	2	0	1	0	0	14:14	0:00
M. Rempe	C	0	4	0	0	0	13:01	1:05
A. Edstrom	C	0	3	1	0	0	11:42	0:00
N. Laba	C	1	0	0	0	0	11:27	1:07
T. Raddysh	RW	1	0	1	0	0	9:45	0:00
J. Brodzinski	C	0	0	0	0	0	9:04	0:00
A. Fox	D	2	0	3	0	0	23:43	2:45
V. Gavrikov	D	2	0	1	0	0	21:43	0:00
W. Borgen	D	1	0	1	0	0	18:23	0:00
M. Robertson	D	1	2	0	0	0	18:08	0:00
B. Schneider	D	1	2	1	-1	0	17:46	1:15
U. Vaakanainen	D	2	0	1	-1	0	14:10	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Quick	21	20	1	.952	58:06	Loss
I. Shesterkin	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

WSH

Line 1A. Protas15:53P. Dubois13:06T. Wilson15:38

Line 2A. Ovechkin12:59D. Strome13:37S. Milano10:07

Line 3A. Beauvillier14:44C. McMichael13:12R. Leonard12:14

Line 4N. Dowd12:49B. Duhaime11:03J. Sourdif10:45

Pair 1M. Roy17:54R. Sandin17:52

Pair 2J. Carlson17:36M. Fehérváry16:34

Pair 3J. Chychrun19:58D. Chisholm14:29

NYR

Line 1A. Panarin16:14A. Lafrenière16:00M. Zibanejad14:41

Line 2J. Miller15:40C. Sheary14:56W. Cuylle14:16

Line 3S. Carrick12:48M. Rempe11:56A. Edstrom11:42

Line 4T. Raddysh9:10N. Laba10:03J. Brodzinski9:04

Pair 1V. Gavrikov20:39A. Fox18:04

Pair 2W. Borgen17:27M. Robertson18:08

Pair 3B. Schneider15:32U. Vaakanainen14:10

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WSH 2.9, NYR 3.2	WSH 1, NYR 0
Total goals	6.1	1
Shots on goal	WSH 26.2, NYR 27.9	WSH 21, NYR 35
Win chance	NYR 55%	WSH won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WSH A. Ovechkin	3.4	3	0.85	1	36%	0
NYR A. Panarin	2.8	1	1.12	0	33%	0
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.5	7	0.86	0	27%	0
WSH J. Chychrun	2.4	0	0.52	0	14%	0
WSH T. Wilson	2.2	1	0.70	0	28%	0
WSH A. Protas	2.0	2	0.71	0	22%	0
NYR A. Fox	2.0	2	0.80	0	16%	0
WSH C. McMichael	2.0	1	0.52	0	21%	0
NYR J. Miller	2.0	3	0.98	0	28%	0
WSH J. Carlson	1.9	1	0.55	0	9%	0
NYR W. Cuylle	1.9	4	0.47	0	20%	0
NYR A. Lafrenière	1.9	4	0.58	0	22%	0
WSH D. Strome	1.9	1	0.79	0	24%	0
WSH P. Dubois	1.8	0	0.61	0	21%	0
WSH A. Beauvillier	1.8	4	0.30	1	12%	1
NYR J. Brodzinski	1.8	0	0.39	0	16%	0
WSH R. Leonard	1.6	2	0.20	0	11%	0
NYR V. Gavrikov	1.4	2	0.30	0	7%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.3	1	0.26	0	7%	0
WSH M. Roy	1.2	1	0.29	0	5%	0
NYR S. Carrick	1.2	2	0.28	0	11%	0
NYR T. Raddysh	1.2	1	0.26	0	11%	0
WSH J. Sourdif	1.2	2	0.22	0	11%	0
NYR C. Sheary	1.2	3	0.33	0	13%	0
NYR W. Borgen	1.1	1	0.22	0	5%	0
WSH B. Duhaime	1.1	1	0.24	0	11%	0
WSH N. Dowd	1.0	1	0.29	0	14%	0
WSH R. Sandin	1.0	0	0.31	0	5%	0
NYR U. Vaakanainen	1.0	2	0.23	0	3%	0
WSH M. Fehérváry	1.0	0	0.25	0	6%	0
NYR M. Rempe	1.0	0	0.25	0	11%	0
NYR A. Edstrom	0.8	0	0.22	0	11%	0
WSH D. Chisholm	0.8	0	0.14	1	3%	0
WSH S. Milano	0.8	1	0.28	0	12%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.