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Game Recap
WSH1
NYR8
NYR beat WSH 8-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.14 expected goals to 1.89. NYR outshot WSH 32 to 21. W. Cuylle scored three for NYR. W. Cuylle had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. I. Shesterkin stopped 20 of 21.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| NYR | 1 | 5 | 2 | 8 |
- 1st 0:23NYRC. Sheary0.41 xG
- 1st 13:45WSHC. McMichael0.15 xG
- 2nd 3:07NYRJ. MillerPP0.22 xG
- 2nd 5:53NYRW. Cuylle0.35 xG
- 2nd 8:33NYRW. Cuylle0.02 xG
- 2nd 13:22NYRA. Sykora0.31 xG
- 2nd 18:27NYRA. FoxPP0.05 xG
- 3rd 2:27NYRV. Trocheck0.09 xG
- 3rd 19:28NYRW. Cuylle0.16 xG
Team Stats
WSHNYR
21Shots on goal32
1.89Expected goals4.14
46Shot attempts67
165v5 shots on goal25
0/3Power play2/4
26Hits23
20Blocked shots13
23Penalty minutes21
8Giveaways16
4Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
WSH 1.89 xGNYR 4.14 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
WSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Wilson | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 19:13 | 4:16 |
| C. McMichael | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 2 | 17:12 | 2:41 |
| A. Ovechkin | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:26 | 5:52 |
| A. Protas | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:05 | 0:00 |
| P. Dubois | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 16:44 | 3:10 |
| R. Leonard | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 15:58 | 3:13 |
| J. Sourdif | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:29 | 2:36 |
| D. Strome | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 13:35 | 1:38 |
| B. Duhaime | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 7 | 13:29 | 0:08 |
| A. Beauvillier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 12:46 | 0:00 |
| H. Lapierre | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 10:33 | 0:08 |
| E. Frank | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:44 | 0:08 |
| M. Fehérváry | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:59 | 0:00 |
| R. Sandin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 21:06 | 0:00 |
| T. van Riemsdyk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:52 | 0:08 |
| C. Hutson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 | 18:38 | 2:32 |
| M. Roy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 | 18:00 | 0:08 |
| J. Chychrun | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 5 | 17:41 | 3:22 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Lindgren | 32 | 24 | 8 | .750 | 60:00 | Loss |
| L. Thompson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NYR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Zibanejad | C | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 19:54 | 3:35 |
| W. Cuylle | LW | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 0 | +3 | 9 | 12:58 | 2:26 |
| V. Trocheck | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 17:03 | 3:37 |
| J. Miller | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:58 | 3:36 |
| A. Lafrenière | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:06 | 3:34 |
| N. Laba | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 5 | 15:38 | 0:27 |
| J. Chmelar | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:19 | 0:28 |
| J. Brodzinski | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 14:07 | 2:26 |
| C. Sheary | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:49 | 2:32 |
| A. Sykora | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 13:36 | 0:24 |
| T. Kartye | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 9:44 | 0:00 |
| G. Perreault | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:55 | 2:26 |
| A. Fox | D | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:31 | 3:31 |
| V. Gavrikov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 21:05 | 2:31 |
| B. Schneider | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 2 | 20:10 | 0:29 |
| D. Fortescue | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 17:53 | 0:28 |
| M. Robertson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:50 | 0:00 |
| W. Borgen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:24 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Shesterkin | 21 | 20 | 1 | .952 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Quick | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
WSH
Line 1P. Dubois13:34C. McMichael11:41T. Wilson11:06
Line 2D. Strome11:57A. Protas14:27A. Ovechkin11:34
Line 3J. Sourdif12:53R. Leonard12:45A. Beauvillier11:13
Line 4B. Duhaime11:14H. Lapierre10:25E. Frank9:36
Pair 1R. Sandin19:32M. Fehérváry14:33
Pair 2T. Riemsdyk17:36J. Chychrun13:51
NYR
Line 1M. Zibanejad15:26A. Lafrenière14:32G. Perreault13:29
Line 2J. Chmelar13:51A. Sykora13:12N. Laba11:52
Line 3V. Trocheck12:08J. Brodzinski11:41W. Cuylle10:06
Pair 1B. Schneider16:54D. Fortescue17:25
Pair 2W. Borgen14:47M. Robertson15:14
Pair 3V. Gavrikov15:10A. Fox15:26
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | WSH 3.2, NYR 3.1 | WSH 1, NYR 8 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | WSH 27.7, NYR 26.5 | WSH 21, NYR 32 |
| Win chance | WSH 51% | NYR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH A. Ovechkin | 2.9 | 3 | 0.84 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| NYR M. Zibanejad | 2.6 | 2 | 0.90 | 3 | 29% | 0 |
| WSH J. Chychrun | 2.4 | 2 | 0.57 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NYR A. Lafrenière | 2.2 | 2 | 0.70 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| WSH T. Wilson | 2.1 | 1 | 0.76 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| NYR J. Miller | 2.0 | 2 | 0.90 | 2 | 27% | 1 |
| WSH A. Beauvillier | 2.0 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NYR V. Trocheck | 1.9 | 3 | 0.77 | 2 | 24% | 1 |
| WSH C. McMichael | 1.9 | 1 | 0.57 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| WSH A. Protas | 1.8 | 2 | 0.62 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| WSH R. Leonard | 1.8 | 2 | 0.47 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NYR W. Cuylle | 1.7 | 6 | 0.41 | 3 | 18% | 3 |
| WSH D. Strome | 1.7 | 0 | 0.71 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| NYR A. Fox | 1.6 | 1 | 0.84 | 3 | 15% | 1 |
| WSH P. Dubois | 1.6 | 1 | 0.65 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| WSH J. Sourdif | 1.6 | 2 | 0.50 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| WSH C. Hutson | 1.5 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYR G. Perreault | 1.5 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NYR V. Gavrikov | 1.3 | 2 | 0.37 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| NYR J. Brodzinski | 1.3 | 1 | 0.29 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| WSH R. Sandin | 1.2 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYR C. Sheary | 1.2 | 3 | 0.32 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| NYR T. Kartye | 1.2 | 0 | 0.35 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| NYR B. Schneider | 1.2 | 2 | 0.26 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| WSH M. Roy | 1.2 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYR A. Sykora | 1.1 | 2 | 0.35 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| NYR M. Robertson | 1.1 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| WSH E. Frank | 1.0 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NYR J. Chmelar | 1.0 | 1 | 0.25 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| NYR N. Laba | 1.0 | 2 | 0.29 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| NYR W. Borgen | 1.0 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| WSH M. Fehérváry | 0.9 | 1 | 0.26 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| WSH B. Duhaime | 0.9 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| WSH H. Lapierre | 0.8 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| WSH T. Riemsdyk | 0.8 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NYR D. Fortescue | 0.7 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.