Game Recap: WSH 4, OTT 5 (OT), January 30, 2025

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Game Recap

WSH4

Final/OTThu, Jan 30, 2025Every game that night

OTT5

OTT beat WSH 5-4 in overtime, with the chances close: 3.47 expected goals to 2.85. A. Ovechkin led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). A. Ovechkin had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 3.0. A. Forsberg stopped 31 of 35.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
WSH	0	1	3	0	4
OTT	0	3	1	1	5

2nd 4:08OTTR. GreigPP0.21 xG
2nd 7:43WSHC. McMichael0.11 xG
2nd 17:37OTTJ. Norris0.31 xG
2nd 18:15OTTS. PintoSH0.17 xG
3rd 7:58WSHD. StromePP0.04 xG
3rd 10:38OTTJ. SandersonPP0.06 xG
3rd 13:01WSHA. OvechkinPP0.03 xG
3rd 14:31WSHD. Strome0.16 xG
OT 1:46OTTT. Chabot0.19 xG

Team Stats

WSHOTT

35Shots on goal34

2.85Expected goals3.47

59Shot attempts50

285v5 shots on goal22

2/6Power play2/5

20Hits19

5Blocked shots14

6Penalty minutes12

10Giveaways15

10Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WSH 2.85 xGOTT 3.47 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WSH35 on goal, 4 scored

OTT34 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Ovechkin	LW	1	2	3	7	2	0	0	0	22:11	9:42
D. Strome	C	2	0	2	4	0	1	0	0	19:19	5:55
C. McMichael	LW	1	1	2	5	0	1	0	0	17:38	4:39
T. Wilson	RW	0	1	1	1	5	0	+1	0	20:57	5:27
P. Dubois	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	18:04	4:13
A. Protas	LW	0	1	1	3	0	1	0	0	18:00	1:03
N. Dowd	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	15:46	0:00
A. Mangiapane	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	13:25	3:23
B. Duhaime	LW	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	0	13:03	0:00
L. Eller	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8:45	0:00
E. Frank	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	7:32	1:03
T. Raddysh	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	4	7:07	0:00
J. Carlson	D	0	1	1	2	1	1	+1	0	24:38	5:39
M. Roy	D	0	1	1	0	2	0	+1	0	17:06	0:24
J. Chychrun	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	24:49	5:38
R. Sandin	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	17:47	3:15
T. van Riemsdyk	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	16:59	0:00
M. Fehérváry	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	2	15:34	0:09

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Lindgren	34	29	5	.853	61:31	OT loss
L. Thompson	0	0	0	–	0:00

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Norris	C	1	2	3	2	2	1	+3	2	19:06	2:07
S. Pinto	C	1	1	2	2	0	0	+1	0	19:06	2:17
C. Giroux	RW	0	1	1	2	1	1	-1	0	21:09	4:02
T. Stützle	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	20:28	4:26
R. Greig	C	1	0	1	3	2	1	-1	4	17:37	2:07
D. Perron	LW	0	1	1	3	0	0	-1	2	12:42	2:43
D. Batherson	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	18:15	3:50
B. Tkachuk	LW	0	0	0	4	2	1	0	0	18:03	4:23
M. Amadio	RW	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	11:55	0:06
M. Highmore	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	2	9:56	0:06
A. Gaudette	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	6:33	0:23
Z. Ostapchuk	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	4:52	0:00
T. Chabot	D	1	1	2	5	0	0	+1	0	25:00	3:14
J. Sanderson	D	1	1	2	2	0	1	0	0	23:17	3:25
T. Hamonic	D	0	0	0	3	3	3	0	2	21:03	0:06
A. Zub	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	0	20:18	0:00
T. Kleven	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	14:35	0:00
N. Matinpalo	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	11:17	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Forsberg	35	31	4	.886	61:46	Win
L. Meriläinen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJakob Chychrun WSH Faces OTT, his team until Apr 20241 SOG
BirthdayThomas Chabot OTT Turns 28 that day1 G, 1 A, 5 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WSH 2.7, OTT 2.6	WSH 4, OTT 5
Total goals	5.3	9
Shots on goal	WSH 25.0, OTT 28.3	WSH 35, OTT 34
Win chance	WSH 52%	OTT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
OTT B. Tkachuk	3.9	4	0.78	0	31%	0
WSH A. Ovechkin	3.0	7	0.75	3	34%	1
OTT S. Pinto	2.2	2	0.50	2	21%	1
OTT D. Batherson	2.2	1	0.71	0	25%	0
WSH J. Chychrun	2.1	1	0.51	0	14%	0
OTT T. Chabot	2.1	5	0.44	2	11%	1
WSH T. Wilson	2.1	1	0.56	1	26%	0
OTT T. Stützle	2.1	1	0.82	1	26%	0
OTT J. Sanderson	2.1	2	0.42	2	8%	1
OTT C. Giroux	1.9	2	0.66	1	23%	0
WSH J. Carlson	1.9	2	0.56	1	11%	0
WSH A. Protas	1.8	3	0.59	1	20%	0
WSH C. McMichael	1.8	5	0.47	2	21%	1
OTT J. Norris	1.7	2	0.50	3	26%	1
WSH D. Strome	1.7	4	0.72	2	23%	2
OTT D. Perron	1.6	3	0.43	1	18%	0
WSH P. Dubois	1.6	0	0.58	1	21%	0
OTT R. Greig	1.5	3	0.37	1	18%	1
OTT T. Hamonic	1.4	3	0.17	0	6%	0
OTT A. Zub	1.3	2	0.26	0	7%	0
WSH M. Roy	1.3	0	0.29	1	6%	0
WSH A. Mangiapane	1.3	0	0.38	0	18%	0
OTT M. Amadio	1.3	2	0.34	0	17%	0
WSH B. Duhaime	1.2	3	0.23	0	12%	0
OTT M. Highmore	1.2	0	0.25	0	10%	0
WSH L. Eller	1.1	0	0.26	0	12%	0
WSH N. Dowd	1.1	1	0.35	0	18%	0
OTT N. Matinpalo	1.1	0	0.06	0	3%	0
OTT T. Kleven	1.1	2	0.11	0	4%	0
OTT A. Gaudette	1.1	0	0.24	0	13%	0
WSH E. Frank	1.0	1	0.31	0	14%	0
WSH T. Raddysh	1.0	2	0.23	0	10%	0
WSH T. Riemsdyk	0.9	1	0.23	0	3%	0
WSH R. Sandin	0.9	3	0.33	0	6%	0
WSH M. Fehérváry	0.9	1	0.22	0	6%	0
OTT Z. Ostapchuk	0.6	0	0.12	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 14 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.