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Game Recap
WSH2
PHI4
PHI beat WSH 4-2, with the chances close: 2.71 expected goals to 3.03. R. Ristolainen led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Carlson had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. D. Vladar stopped 26 of 28.
Team Stats
WSHPHI
28Shots on goal22
3.03Expected goals2.71
62Shot attempts45
195v5 shots on goal18
0/1Power play1/3
27Hits21
12Blocked shots25
16Penalty minutes2
8Giveaways21
4Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
WSH 3.03 xGPHI 2.71 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
WSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Beauvillier | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:51 | 0:05 |
| A. Protas | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:27 | 0:02 |
| J. Sourdif | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:48 | 0:43 |
| T. Wilson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:19 | 1:12 |
| D. Strome | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 10 | 19:23 | 1:12 |
| R. Leonard | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:27 | 1:12 |
| N. Dowd | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 15:57 | 0:04 |
| A. Ovechkin | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 15:35 | 1:50 |
| E. Frank | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:25 | 0:44 |
| B. Duhaime | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:01 | 0:00 |
| H. Lapierre | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:44 | 0:00 |
| S. Milano | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:09 | 0:46 |
| T. van Riemsdyk | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:08 | 0:00 |
| J. Carlson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 0 | 25:09 | 0:48 |
| J. Chychrun | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 23:59 | 1:12 |
| M. Fehérváry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:54 | 0:10 |
| R. Sandin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 18:29 | 0:00 |
| M. Roy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 17:26 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Stevenson | 21 | 18 | 3 | .857 | 58:25 | Loss |
| G. Bjorklund | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
PHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Konecny | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:39 | 3:00 |
| T. Zegras | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:39 | 2:59 |
| M. Michkov | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:54 | 1:25 |
| O. Tippett | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:40 | 1:24 |
| C. Grundstrom | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:20 | 0:00 |
| N. Deslauriers | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6:30 | 0:00 |
| C. Dvorak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:38 | 3:23 |
| B. Brink | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:41 | 2:43 |
| N. Cates | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:37 | 1:01 |
| S. Couturier | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 15:46 | 0:00 |
| N. Grebenkin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:18 | 0:00 |
| D. Barkey | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:06 | 1:25 |
| R. Ristolainen | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 20:41 | 0:02 |
| T. Sanheim | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | +3 | 0 | 23:18 | 0:16 |
| J. Drysdale | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 22:43 | 2:50 |
| C. York | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 0 | 21:57 | 1:32 |
| N. Seeler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 15:55 | 0:00 |
| N. Juulsen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:38 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Vladar | 28 | 26 | 2 | .929 | 60:00 | Win |
| A. Kolosov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
WSH
Line 2N. Dowd13:30E. Frank13:41R. Leonard15:15
Line 3A. Beauvillier15:45J. Sourdif15:05A. Ovechkin12:10
Line 4B. Duhaime8:48H. Lapierre6:44S. Milano5:23
Pair 1J. Chychrun20:57M. Roy15:52
Pair 2J. Carlson20:12M. Fehérváry16:23
Pair 3R. Sandin18:01T. Riemsdyk13:30
PHI
Line 1B. Brink15:52N. Cates14:46M. Michkov14:29
Line 2C. Dvorak14:37T. Konecny15:05N. Grebenkin13:18
Line 3O. Tippett13:15T. Zegras15:40D. Barkey9:41
Line 4S. Couturier13:17C. Grundstrom9:12N. Deslauriers6:30
Pair 1C. York19:27J. Drysdale19:53
Pair 2T. Sanheim20:31R. Ristolainen18:07
Pair 3N. Seeler14:51N. Juulsen11:34
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | WSH 3.3, PHI 3.2 | WSH 2, PHI 4 |
| Total goals | 6.5 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | WSH 25.2, PHI 28.2 | WSH 28, PHI 22 |
| Win chance | WSH 50% | PHI won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI O. Tippett | 2.7 | 3 | 0.63 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| WSH A. Ovechkin | 2.7 | 4 | 0.91 | 0 | 37% | 0 |
| WSH J. Chychrun | 2.6 | 0 | 0.67 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| PHI T. Konecny | 2.5 | 0 | 0.95 | 2 | 30% | 0 |
| PHI C. Dvorak | 2.2 | 0 | 0.70 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| PHI M. Michkov | 2.1 | 1 | 0.58 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| PHI T. Zegras | 2.1 | 3 | 0.74 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| WSH A. Protas | 1.9 | 2 | 0.71 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| WSH A. Beauvillier | 1.9 | 2 | 0.38 | 2 | 17% | 1 |
| WSH R. Leonard | 1.8 | 2 | 0.57 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| WSH D. Strome | 1.8 | 3 | 0.92 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| WSH J. Carlson | 1.8 | 5 | 0.67 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| WSH T. Wilson | 1.8 | 2 | 0.77 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| PHI S. Couturier | 1.8 | 3 | 0.48 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| WSH J. Sourdif | 1.6 | 2 | 0.60 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| PHI C. Grundstrom | 1.6 | 2 | 0.28 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| PHI B. Brink | 1.5 | 2 | 0.51 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| PHI N. Cates | 1.5 | 2 | 0.47 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| PHI R. Ristolainen | 1.4 | 2 | 0.26 | 2 | 5% | 1 |
| PHI C. York | 1.4 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| WSH E. Frank | 1.4 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| PHI J. Drysdale | 1.3 | 2 | 0.43 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| PHI T. Sanheim | 1.2 | 0 | 0.38 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| PHI D. Barkey | 1.2 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| PHI N. Seeler | 1.2 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WSH M. Roy | 1.1 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WSH R. Sandin | 1.0 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WSH M. Fehérváry | 0.9 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| WSH N. Dowd | 0.9 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| PHI N. Deslauriers | 0.8 | 0 | 0.10 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| PHI N. Grebenkin | 0.8 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| WSH S. Milano | 0.7 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| WSH B. Duhaime | 0.7 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| WSH T. Riemsdyk | 0.6 | 0 | 0.19 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| WSH H. Lapierre | 0.6 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| PHI N. Juulsen | 0.6 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.