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Game Recap
WSH1
SEA5
SEA beat WSH 5-1, with the chances close: 2.78 expected goals to 2.42. SEA outshot WSH 32 to 20. J. McCann led the way with 4 points (2 G, 2 A). P. Grubauer stopped 19 of 20.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| SEA | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
- 2nd 1:15SEAJ. McCannPP0.08 xG
- 2nd 10:09SEAJ. McCann0.06 xG
- 2nd 17:54SEAJ. Eberle0.13 xG
- 3rd 2:30WSHA. OvechkinPP0.15 xG
- 3rd 13:12SEAR. Evans0.05 xG
- 3rd 16:27SEAM. Beniers0.14 xG
Team Stats
WSHSEA
20Shots on goal32
2.42Expected goals2.78
47Shot attempts61
155v5 shots on goal26
1/5Power play1/4
17Hits15
16Blocked shots14
13Penalty minutes15
20Giveaways10
3Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
WSH 2.42 xGSEA 2.78 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
WSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Ovechkin | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:10 | 8:49 |
| R. Leonard | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:30 | 5:28 |
| D. Strome | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:24 | 6:15 |
| T. Wilson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:41 | 5:50 |
| J. Sourdif | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 18:11 | 3:02 |
| A. Protas | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:35 | 0:00 |
| E. Frank | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:00 | 3:24 |
| C. McMichael | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 14:58 | 2:37 |
| A. Beauvillier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 13:30 | 0:00 |
| N. Dowd | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:47 | 0:00 |
| B. Duhaime | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 10:16 | 0:00 |
| H. Lapierre | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 7:52 | 0:00 |
| J. Chychrun | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 24:35 | 6:11 |
| J. Carlson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 22:49 | 2:41 |
| M. Fehérváry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 0 | 19:48 | 0:03 |
| T. van Riemsdyk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 19:06 | 0:00 |
| D. Chisholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:53 | 0:00 |
| D. McIlrath | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:53 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Thompson | 32 | 27 | 5 | .844 | 60:00 | Loss |
| C. Lindgren | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
SEA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. McCann | LW | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 14:11 | 5:09 |
| M. Beniers | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 4 | 17:35 | 5:11 |
| J. Eberle | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 15:07 | 5:05 |
| C. Stephenson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19:38 | 5:01 |
| F. Gaudreau | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:04 | 0:00 |
| J. Schwartz | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:48 | 1:42 |
| E. Tolvanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 15:40 | 1:37 |
| S. Wright | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:09 | 1:38 |
| K. Kakko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:32 | 1:40 |
| J. Melanson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | +1 | 5 | 12:12 | 0:00 |
| R. Winterton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 11:17 | 0:00 |
| B. Catton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10:23 | 0:06 |
| A. Larsson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:59 | 0:00 |
| B. Montour | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:24 | 1:44 |
| R. Lindgren | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 18:02 | 0:00 |
| R. Evans | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 17:45 | 0:00 |
| J. Oleksiak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:33 | 0:03 |
| V. Dunn | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:38 | 5:19 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Grubauer | 20 | 19 | 1 | .950 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Daccord | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
WSH
Line 1J. Sourdif14:51T. Wilson10:50A. Protas15:16
Line 2D. Strome13:09C. McMichael10:45R. Leonard9:02
Line 3E. Frank10:37B. Duhaime8:54H. Lapierre7:34
Line 4N. Dowd9:56A. Beauvillier11:10A. Ovechkin10:21
Pair 1J. Carlson16:04J. Chychrun17:21
Pair 2M. Fehérváry14:45T. Riemsdyk16:26
Pair 3D. McIlrath10:57D. Chisholm12:32
SEA
Line 1F. Gaudreau11:44J. Melanson12:12R. Winterton11:17
Line 2K. Kakko11:52S. Wright12:27J. Schwartz12:10
Line 3C. Stephenson10:47B. Catton10:17E. Tolvanen10:10
Line 4J. Eberle10:02M. Beniers10:31J. McCann8:51
Pair 1J. Oleksiak15:58B. Montour17:29
Pair 2R. Evans14:59R. Lindgren12:31
Pair 3A. Larsson14:05V. Dunn13:08
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | WSH 3.4, SEA 3.1 | WSH 1, SEA 5 |
| Total goals | 6.5 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | WSH 29.0, SEA 27.4 | WSH 20, SEA 32 |
| Win chance | WSH 54% | SEA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH A. Ovechkin | 3.0 | 4 | 0.88 | 1 | 37% | 1 |
| WSH J. Chychrun | 2.9 | 2 | 0.62 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| SEA B. Montour | 2.5 | 1 | 0.52 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| SEA J. McCann | 2.4 | 4 | 0.70 | 4 | 27% | 2 |
| WSH A. Protas | 2.1 | 1 | 0.67 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| WSH R. Leonard | 2.1 | 2 | 0.58 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| SEA J. Eberle | 2.1 | 3 | 0.63 | 2 | 23% | 1 |
| WSH J. Carlson | 2.0 | 1 | 0.67 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WSH D. Strome | 2.0 | 2 | 0.85 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| WSH T. Wilson | 2.0 | 0 | 0.73 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| WSH A. Beauvillier | 2.0 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| SEA J. Schwartz | 2.0 | 4 | 0.53 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| WSH C. McMichael | 1.9 | 1 | 0.55 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| SEA M. Beniers | 1.9 | 3 | 0.58 | 2 | 22% | 1 |
| SEA E. Tolvanen | 1.9 | 4 | 0.52 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| SEA V. Dunn | 1.9 | 1 | 0.55 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| WSH E. Frank | 1.6 | 2 | 0.45 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| WSH J. Sourdif | 1.6 | 2 | 0.55 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| SEA S. Wright | 1.4 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| SEA K. Kakko | 1.4 | 2 | 0.47 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| SEA C. Stephenson | 1.2 | 0 | 0.62 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| SEA A. Larsson | 1.2 | 0 | 0.28 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| SEA F. Gaudreau | 1.2 | 1 | 0.35 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| SEA B. Catton | 1.1 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| WSH M. Fehérváry | 1.1 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| WSH N. Dowd | 1.0 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| SEA R. Winterton | 1.0 | 3 | 0.22 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| SEA J. Melanson | 0.9 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| SEA J. Oleksiak | 0.8 | 3 | 0.19 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WSH D. Chisholm | 0.8 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| SEA R. Lindgren | 0.7 | 0 | 0.22 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| SEA R. Evans | 0.7 | 1 | 0.26 | 1 | 6% | 1 |
| WSH B. Duhaime | 0.6 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| WSH H. Lapierre | 0.6 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| WSH T. Riemsdyk | 0.6 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| WSH D. McIlrath | 0.3 | 0 | 0.08 | 0 | 1% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.