Game Recap: WSH 5, TBL 4, November 27, 2024

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Game Recap

WSH5

FinalWed, Nov 27, 2024Every game that night

TBL4

WSH beat TBL 5-4, with the chances close: 2.01 expected goals to 2.36. B. Point scored three for TBL. T. Wilson had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. C. Lindgren stopped 25 of 28.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
WSH	0	2	3	5
TBL	2	1	1	4

1st 3:58TBLB. Point0.05 xG
1st 12:27TBLB. PointPP0.16 xG
2nd 10:31WSHA. Mangiapane0.23 xG
2nd 12:29WSHA. ProtasSH0.08 xG
2nd 19:16TBLM. Eyssimont0.04 xG
3rd 1:37WSHD. Strome0.10 xG
3rd 7:25TBLB. Point0.17 xG
3rd 10:30WSHJ. Carlson0.05 xG
3rd 16:34WSHT. WilsonPP0.11 xG

Team Stats

WSHTBL

32Shots on goal28

2.01Expected goals2.36

57Shot attempts51

255v5 shots on goal21

1/3Power play1/3

24Hits26

15Blocked shots11

11Penalty minutes11

17Giveaways12

5Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WSH 2.01 xGTBL 2.36 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WSH32 on goal, 5 scored

TBL28 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Wilson	RW	1	1	2	6	2	1	0	0	17:54	3:23
D. Strome	C	1	1	2	3	1	0	+1	2	16:35	3:15
A. Protas	LW	1	1	2	1	0	3	+1	0	13:30	0:02
T. Raddysh	RW	0	1	1	1	1	1	+1	2	15:20	1:11
A. Mangiapane	LW	1	0	1	2	1	1	0	0	14:12	1:22
L. Eller	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	2	12:42	0:00
H. Lapierre	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	11:48	0:00
C. McMichael	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	21:22	3:12
P. Dubois	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	16:44	1:23
N. Dowd	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	-1	0	14:30	0:00
B. Duhaime	LW	0	0	0	1	3	2	-1	5	11:05	0:00
I. Miroshnichenko	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	10:25	0:34
J. Chychrun	D	0	1	1	5	1	0	-1	0	24:16	3:31
J. Carlson	D	1	0	1	3	1	3	-1	0	23:44	3:16
M. Roy	D	0	0	0	3	3	0	+2	0	19:04	0:44
M. Fehérváry	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	18:23	0:00
R. Sandin	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	17:44	1:12
T. van Riemsdyk	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	16:08	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Lindgren	28	25	4	.893	59:47	Win
L. Thompson	0	0	0	–	0:00

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Point	C	3	0	3	4	1	0	-2	0	23:02	3:53
N. Kucherov	RW	0	1	1	4	0	0	-1	0	23:51	3:53
J. Guentzel	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	-2	0	22:42	3:53
Z. Girgensons	C	0	1	1	2	2	0	+1	0	13:01	0:00
M. Eyssimont	C	1	0	1	4	3	0	+1	0	10:17	0:54
B. Hagel	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	21:37	3:53
C. Geekie	C	0	0	0	2	6	0	0	0	16:03	0:54
G. Goncalves	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	14:50	0:54
A. Cirelli	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	4	13:49	0:00
C. Atkinson	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	11:35	0:54
L. Glendening	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	0	11:34	0:00
V. Hedman	D	0	1	1	2	1	0	-1	0	23:08	2:53
R. McDonagh	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	18:30	0:00
J. Moser	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	+1	0	18:13	0:00
E. Cernak	D	0	0	0	1	4	1	-1	0	16:51	0:00
N. Perbix	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	13:27	0:00
D. Raddysh	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	13:06	1:54
E. Lilleberg	D	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	7	11:00	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Vasilevskiy	32	27	5	.844	58:47	Loss
J. Johansson	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJohn Carlson TBL Faces WSH, his team until Feb 20261 G, 3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WSH 3.0, TBL 3.4	WSH 5, TBL 4
Total goals	6.3	9
Shots on goal	WSH 26.5, TBL 29.1	WSH 32, TBL 28
Win chance	TBL 57%	WSH won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TBL N. Kucherov	3.3	4	1.62	1	36%	0
TBL J. Guentzel	2.9	2	1.06	1	36%	0
TBL B. Hagel	2.5	1	1.07	0	32%	0
TBL B. Point	2.3	4	0.97	3	37%	3
TBL V. Hedman	2.2	2	0.77	1	15%	0
WSH C. McMichael	2.1	2	0.54	0	24%	0
WSH T. Wilson	2.1	6	0.59	2	24%	1
WSH J. Chychrun	2.0	5	0.46	1	14%	0
WSH J. Carlson	2.0	3	0.60	1	13%	1
TBL A. Cirelli	1.9	2	0.78	0	25%	0
WSH D. Strome	1.7	3	0.85	2	25%	1
WSH P. Dubois	1.7	0	0.60	0	22%	0
TBL M. Eyssimont	1.7	4	0.25	1	10%	1
WSH A. Protas	1.6	1	0.49	2	13%	1
WSH A. Mangiapane	1.4	2	0.43	1	18%	1
TBL C. Atkinson	1.3	1	0.28	0	12%	0
WSH L. Eller	1.3	0	0.31	1	13%	0
WSH B. Duhaime	1.3	1	0.25	0	12%	0
WSH M. Roy	1.3	3	0.31	0	7%	0
TBL C. Geekie	1.2	2	0.34	0	14%	0
WSH T. Raddysh	1.2	1	0.27	1	12%	0
WSH I. Miroshnichenko	1.1	0	0.27	0	11%	0
WSH T. Riemsdyk	1.1	1	0.25	0	3%	0
TBL D. Raddysh	1.1	2	0.29	0	6%	0
TBL R. McDonagh	1.1	0	0.31	0	4%	0
TBL J. Moser	1.0	0	0.32	0	8%	0
WSH N. Dowd	1.0	1	0.36	0	17%	0
TBL Z. Girgensons	1.0	2	0.20	1	10%	0
WSH R. Sandin	1.0	1	0.38	0	8%	0
TBL N. Perbix	1.0	0	0.26	0	5%	0
TBL G. Goncalves	0.9	0	0.24	0	11%	0
WSH H. Lapierre	0.9	1	0.33	1	11%	0
WSH M. Fehérváry	0.9	1	0.23	0	7%	0
TBL E. Cernak	0.8	1	0.20	0	3%	0
TBL L. Glendening	0.8	1	0.13	0	9%	0
TBL E. Lilleberg	0.7	0	0.17	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.