Game Recap: WSH 5, TOR 2, December 28, 2024

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Game Recap

WSH5

FinalSat, Dec 28, 2024Every game that night

TOR2

WSH beat TOR 5-2, with the chances close: 3.19 expected goals to 3.45. J. Chychrun led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). D. Strome had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. L. Thompson stopped 35 of 37.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
WSH	2	1	2	5
TOR	1	1	0	2

1st 3:14TORJ. Tavares0.11 xG
1st 4:46WSHA. Mangiapane0.10 xG
1st 8:54WSHJ. Chychrun0.03 xG
2nd 8:10TORB. McMann0.16 xG
2nd 9:53WSHN. Dowd0.07 xG
3rd 12:36WSHT. WilsonPP0.11 xG
3rd 16:37WSHA. OvechkinEN0.95 xG

Team Stats

WSHTOR

32Shots on goal37

3.19Expected goals3.45

61Shot attempts74

275v5 shots on goal31

1/1Power play0/2

17Hits28

17Blocked shots9

4Penalty minutes2

14Giveaways13

6Takeaways1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

WSH 3.19 xGTOR 3.45 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

WSH32 on goal, 5 scored

TOR37 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

WSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Mangiapane	LW	1	1	2	1	0	0	+2	0	11:49	0:00
T. Wilson	RW	1	0	1	3	5	1	-1	0	18:14	1:19
P. Dubois	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	-1	2	16:37	0:00
D. Strome	C	0	1	1	5	0	2	0	0	15:55	1:19
N. Dowd	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	+2	0	15:53	0:00
A. Ovechkin	LW	1	0	1	3	3	0	0	0	14:58	1:19
A. Protas	LW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	2	14:01	0:00
T. Raddysh	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+2	0	13:59	0:00
H. Lapierre	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	9:59	0:00
C. McMichael	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	0	18:43	0:00
B. Duhaime	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	15:12	0:00
J. Vrana	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	+1	0	10:32	0:00
J. Chychrun	D	1	1	2	4	1	1	+3	0	20:00	1:19
T. van Riemsdyk	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	+2	0	19:01	0:00
R. Sandin	D	0	1	1	2	1	3	+1	0	18:46	0:00
M. Roy	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	-1	0	20:54	0:00
M. Fehérváry	D	0	0	0	0	3	2	-2	0	20:44	0:00
J. Carlson	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	+1	0	20:43	1:19

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Thompson	37	35	2	.946	60:00	Win
C. Lindgren	0	0	0	–	0:00

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Marner	RW	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	0	19:38	2:14
J. Tavares	C	1	0	1	6	2	0	0	0	19:01	2:14
M. Pacioretty	LW	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	0	16:28	0:52
B. McMann	C	1	0	1	2	2	0	-1	0	13:45	1:46
M. Domi	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	13:41	1:46
W. Nylander	RW	0	0	0	4	0	0	-2	0	20:35	3:52
M. Knies	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-2	0	17:16	2:08
P. Holmberg	RW	0	0	0	1	2	2	-1	0	15:59	0:00
N. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	12:33	1:00
D. Kampf	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	12:10	0:00
C. Dewar	C	0	0	0	2	4	1	-1	0	12:09	0:00
S. Lorentz	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	-1	0	12:02	0:00
S. Benoit	D	0	1	1	1	5	1	-1	0	16:52	0:00
M. Rielly	D	0	0	0	3	1	1	-2	0	22:07	2:08
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	21:52	1:46
J. McCabe	D	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	2	19:54	0:08
C. Tanev	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	18:50	0:06
C. Timmins	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	15:10	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Murray	31	27	4	.871	58:39	Loss
J. Woll	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

HometownDylan Strome WSH Plays near home (born in Mississauga)1 A, 5 SOG
HometownTom Wilson WSH Plays in his hometown1 G, 3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	WSH 3.2, TOR 3.2	WSH 5, TOR 2
Total goals	6.4	7
Shots on goal	WSH 27.3, TOR 28.4	WSH 32, TOR 37
Win chance	WSH 50%	WSH won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR W. Nylander	3.2	4	1.07	0	37%	0
TOR J. Tavares	2.9	6	0.87	1	31%	1
WSH A. Ovechkin	2.7	3	0.79	1	33%	1
WSH C. McMichael	2.2	1	0.60	0	26%	0
TOR B. McMann	2.2	2	0.47	1	22%	1
TOR M. Marner	2.1	2	1.11	1	28%	0
WSH J. Chychrun	2.1	4	0.50	2	14%	1
WSH T. Wilson	2.1	3	0.60	1	26%	1
WSH J. Carlson	1.9	1	0.58	0	11%	0
TOR M. Pacioretty	1.9	2	0.53	1	19%	0
WSH D. Strome	1.8	5	0.88	1	27%	0
WSH A. Protas	1.8	0	0.57	1	17%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.7	3	0.53	0	9%	0
WSH P. Dubois	1.7	1	0.66	1	23%	0
TOR M. Knies	1.6	1	0.56	0	22%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.5	3	0.32	0	7%	0
TOR M. Domi	1.4	1	0.49	1	13%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.4	3	0.35	0	16%	0
WSH A. Mangiapane	1.4	1	0.45	2	19%	1
WSH J. Vrana	1.3	3	0.39	0	19%	0
WSH M. Roy	1.3	1	0.29	0	6%	0
WSH B. Duhaime	1.2	1	0.22	0	11%	0
WSH T. Raddysh	1.2	2	0.31	1	13%	0
WSH N. Dowd	1.1	2	0.37	1	18%	1
WSH T. Riemsdyk	1.0	1	0.22	1	3%	0
TOR D. Kampf	1.0	0	0.26	0	10%	0
TOR J. McCabe	1.0	1	0.28	0	6%	0
WSH R. Sandin	0.9	2	0.36	1	7%	0
TOR C. Dewar	0.9	2	0.19	0	8%	0
TOR C. Timmins	0.9	3	0.29	0	5%	0
WSH M. Fehérváry	0.9	0	0.22	0	6%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	0.8	1	0.18	0	9%	0
TOR P. Holmberg	0.8	1	0.27	0	11%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.7	1	0.09	1	3%	0
WSH H. Lapierre	0.6	1	0.27	1	8%	0
TOR C. Tanev	0.6	1	0.22	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.