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Game Recap
WSH6
UTA2
WSH beat UTA 6-2 despite fewer good chances: 2.10 expected goals to 3.99. A. Ovechkin led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). C. Lindgren stopped 24 of 26.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| UTA | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
- 1st 3:05UTAJ. McBain0.08 xG
- 1st 7:46WSHD. Strome0.06 xG
- 1st 7:56WSHN. Dowd0.16 xG
- 1st 11:05WSHA. Ovechkin0.13 xG
- 2nd 5:38WSHA. OvechkinPP0.14 xG
- 2nd 11:44UTAN. Bjugstad0.67 xG
- 3rd 7:30WSHB. Duhaime0.05 xG
- 3rd 9:56WSHA. Protas0.06 xG
Team Stats
WSHUTA
24Shots on goal26
2.10Expected goals3.99
35Shot attempts70
165v5 shots on goal18
1/3Power play0/7
14Hits10
20Blocked shots6
15Penalty minutes13
13Giveaways19
6Takeaways9
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
WSH 2.10 xGUTA 3.99 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
WSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Strome | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 14:30 | 2:38 |
| A. Ovechkin | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 14:06 | 4:24 |
| B. Duhaime | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:57 | 0:00 |
| N. Dowd | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:36 | 0:00 |
| P. Dubois | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:02 | 1:51 |
| A. Mangiapane | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:35 | 2:04 |
| A. Protas | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:12 | 0:00 |
| L. Eller | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:03 | 0:00 |
| T. Raddysh | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:22 | 0:00 |
| T. Wilson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 16:57 | 2:20 |
| C. McMichael | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:41 | 2:29 |
| J. Vrana | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 10:57 | 1:50 |
| J. Carlson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5 | +1 | 2 | 21:34 | 2:34 |
| T. van Riemsdyk | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 18:01 | 0:00 |
| M. Fehérváry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:39 | 0:00 |
| J. Chychrun | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 18:51 | 1:50 |
| R. Sandin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 18:45 | 0:00 |
| M. Roy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 18:12 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Lindgren | 26 | 24 | 2 | .923 | 60:00 | Win |
| L. Thompson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
UTA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Keller | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:41 | 8:44 |
| N. Schmaltz | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:18 | 8:08 |
| K. Stenlund | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:51 | 0:08 |
| N. Bjugstad | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 10:48 | 0:00 |
| J. McBain | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 9:36 | 0:07 |
| A. Kerfoot | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:27 | 7:39 |
| D. Guenther | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:06 | 8:47 |
| M. Maccelli | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:43 | 4:18 |
| L. Crouse | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:22 | 3:33 |
| L. Cooley | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:22 | 3:35 |
| B. Hayton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:08 | 3:39 |
| M. Carcone | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:21 | 0:21 |
| I. Cole | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 17:37 | 0:00 |
| M. Sergachev | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 25:04 | 8:51 |
| J. Välimäki | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:16 | 1:50 |
| O. Maatta | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 17:12 | 0:00 |
| M. Kesselring | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:32 | 1:40 |
| M. Lamoureux | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 14:49 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Ingram | 13 | 9 | 4 | .692 | 25:38 | Loss |
| K. Vejmelka | 11 | 9 | 2 | .818 | 34:22 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | WSH 3.0, UTA 3.3 | WSH 6, UTA 2 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 8 |
| Shots on goal | WSH 26.9, UTA 28.5 | WSH 24, UTA 26 |
| Win chance | UTA 55% | WSH won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH A. Ovechkin | 2.7 | 3 | 0.78 | 2 | 32% | 2 |
| UTA C. Keller | 2.5 | 4 | 0.98 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| UTA D. Guenther | 2.4 | 4 | 0.78 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| WSH J. Carlson | 2.1 | 3 | 0.62 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| WSH T. Wilson | 2.1 | 1 | 0.56 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| UTA L. Cooley | 2.0 | 1 | 0.65 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| WSH C. McMichael | 2.0 | 0 | 0.54 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| WSH J. Chychrun | 1.9 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| UTA M. Sergachev | 1.9 | 1 | 0.66 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| UTA N. Schmaltz | 1.8 | 2 | 0.82 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| UTA L. Crouse | 1.7 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| UTA B. Hayton | 1.7 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| UTA N. Bjugstad | 1.7 | 2 | 0.45 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| WSH D. Strome | 1.7 | 2 | 0.82 | 2 | 24% | 1 |
| WSH P. Dubois | 1.6 | 1 | 0.55 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| WSH A. Protas | 1.5 | 2 | 0.48 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| UTA M. Maccelli | 1.5 | 2 | 0.66 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| UTA M. Kesselring | 1.5 | 2 | 0.39 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| UTA M. Carcone | 1.5 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| WSH J. Vrana | 1.4 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| UTA A. Kerfoot | 1.4 | 0 | 0.52 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| WSH L. Eller | 1.4 | 3 | 0.32 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| WSH M. Roy | 1.3 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| WSH A. Mangiapane | 1.3 | 2 | 0.40 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| WSH B. Duhaime | 1.2 | 1 | 0.23 | 2 | 11% | 1 |
| WSH T. Raddysh | 1.2 | 1 | 0.27 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| WSH T. Riemsdyk | 1.2 | 0 | 0.25 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| UTA K. Stenlund | 1.1 | 2 | 0.20 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| WSH N. Dowd | 1.0 | 3 | 0.36 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| WSH R. Sandin | 1.0 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| UTA I. Cole | 0.9 | 0 | 0.23 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| WSH M. Fehérváry | 0.9 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| UTA J. Välimäki | 0.9 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| UTA J. McBain | 0.9 | 2 | 0.41 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| UTA M. Lamoureux | 0.8 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| UTA O. Maatta | 0.8 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.