VAN beat WSH 2-1 despite fewer good chances: 2.13 expected goals to 3.57. WSH outshot VAN 33 to 25. Q. Hughes led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). A. Ovechkin had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.7. K. Lankinen stopped 32 of 33.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| VAN | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
WSH 3.57 xGVAN 2.13 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
WSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Protas | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:56 | 0:00 |
| C. McMichael | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:01 | 2:15 |
| P. Dubois | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:55 | 1:30 |
| A. Ovechkin | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:50 | 4:00 |
| T. Wilson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 19:13 | 1:45 |
| D. Strome | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:50 | 2:30 |
| T. Raddysh | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:27 | 0:00 |
| L. Eller | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:12 | 0:00 |
| A. Mangiapane | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:43 | 1:32 |
| N. Dowd | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:15 | 0:00 |
| E. Frank | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:53 | 0:00 |
| B. Duhaime | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:05 | 0:00 |
| J. Carlson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 22:39 | 2:37 |
| R. Sandin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:45 | 1:23 |
| M. Roy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:00 | 0:00 |
| J. Chychrun | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:29 | 2:28 |
| T. van Riemsdyk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:49 | 0:00 |
| M. Fehérváry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16:06 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Lindgren | 25 | 23 | 2 | .920 | 58:52 | Loss |
| L. Thompson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
VAN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Boeser | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:21 | 3:35 |
| N. Hoglander | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:06 | 1:14 |
| J. Miller | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 2 | 19:46 | 2:42 |
| P. Suter | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:02 | 0:18 |
| C. Garland | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:01 | 2:49 |
| D. Heinen | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:19 | 0:00 |
| E. Pettersson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 15:33 | 3:42 |
| J. DeBrusk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:10 | 0:59 |
| P. Di Giuseppe | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:09 | 0:00 |
| T. Blueger | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:57 | 0:00 |
| M. Sasson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:17 | 0:00 |
| L. Karlsson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 8:57 | 0:25 |
| Q. Hughes | D | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 26:38 | 3:42 |
| F. Hronek | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 23:39 | 0:34 |
| C. Soucy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:55 | 0:00 |
| D. Forbort | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 19:51 | 0:00 |
| V. Desharnais | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 15:42 | 0:00 |
| E. Pettersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 10:37 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Lankinen | 33 | 32 | 1 | .970 | 60:00 | Win |
| T. Demko | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | WSH 2.8, VAN 2.7 | WSH 1, VAN 2 |
| Total goals | 5.5 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | WSH 24.2, VAN 25.3 | WSH 33, VAN 25 |
| Win chance | WSH 50% | VAN won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH A. Ovechkin | 2.7 | 7 | 0.78 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| VAN Q. Hughes | 2.5 | 2 | 0.90 | 2 | 14% | 2 |
| VAN C. Garland | 2.2 | 2 | 0.62 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| WSH J. Chychrun | 2.1 | 2 | 0.52 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| VAN J. Miller | 2.0 | 4 | 0.88 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| WSH T. Wilson | 2.0 | 2 | 0.60 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| VAN B. Boeser | 1.9 | 1 | 0.68 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| VAN J. DeBrusk | 1.9 | 1 | 0.54 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| VAN E. Pettersson | 1.9 | 2 | 0.79 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| WSH J. Carlson | 1.7 | 3 | 0.54 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| WSH C. McMichael | 1.7 | 1 | 0.50 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| WSH A. Protas | 1.7 | 1 | 0.61 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| VAN P. Suter | 1.7 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| WSH P. Dubois | 1.6 | 3 | 0.65 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| WSH D. Strome | 1.6 | 4 | 0.77 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| VAN F. Hronek | 1.5 | 1 | 0.42 | 2 | 8% | 0 |
| WSH A. Mangiapane | 1.2 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| WSH B. Duhaime | 1.2 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WSH M. Roy | 1.1 | 3 | 0.28 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| VAN D. Heinen | 1.1 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| VAN M. Sasson | 1.1 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VAN N. Hoglander | 1.1 | 2 | 0.27 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| VAN T. Blueger | 1.1 | 3 | 0.32 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| VAN P. Giuseppe | 1.0 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WSH N. Dowd | 1.0 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| WSH L. Eller | 1.0 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| VAN C. Soucy | 0.9 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| WSH E. Frank | 0.9 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| WSH T. Riemsdyk | 0.9 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WSH T. Raddysh | 0.9 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| WSH R. Sandin | 0.9 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| WSH M. Fehérváry | 0.9 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| VAN L. Karlsson | 0.8 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| VAN D. Forbort | 0.7 | 2 | 0.14 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| VAN V. Desharnais | 0.6 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.