Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
WSH1
WPG5
WPG beat WSH 5-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.02 expected goals to 1.96. WPG outshot WSH 35 to 25. G. Vilardi led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). N. Dowd had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. C. Hellebuyck stopped 24 of 25.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| WPG | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
- 1st 9:13WPGL. Stanley0.06 xG
- 1st 18:43WPGM. Barron0.15 xG
- 2nd 3:39WPGA. Iafallo0.01 xG
- 2nd 19:53WPGG. VilardiPP0.13 xG
- 3rd 11:55WPGG. Vilardi0.18 xG
- 3rd 16:32WSHJ. ChychrunPP0.18 xG
Team Stats
WSHWPG
25Shots on goal35
1.96Expected goals3.02
48Shot attempts63
175v5 shots on goal25
1/5Power play1/3
20Hits23
16Blocked shots12
6Penalty minutes10
17Giveaways10
3Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
WSH 1.96 xGWPG 3.02 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
WSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Ovechkin | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:19 | 7:41 |
| T. Wilson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 18:16 | 5:40 |
| D. Strome | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:55 | 5:48 |
| A. Beauvillier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:12 | 2:49 |
| E. Frank | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:25 | 4:23 |
| J. Sourdif | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 16:18 | 2:57 |
| A. Protas | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 14:50 | 0:13 |
| N. Dowd | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:36 | 0:00 |
| C. McMichael | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:54 | 2:36 |
| B. Duhaime | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:12 | 0:13 |
| B. Trineyev | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:45 | 0:17 |
| H. Lapierre | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:56 | 0:41 |
| J. Carlson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 4 | 19:55 | 4:03 |
| J. Chychrun | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:40 | 5:42 |
| R. Sandin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 21:09 | 0:20 |
| M. Roy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 18:14 | 0:00 |
| M. Fehérváry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 17:15 | 0:02 |
| T. van Riemsdyk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 16:47 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Thompson | 35 | 30 | 5 | .857 | 59:53 | Loss |
| C. Lindgren | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
WPG Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Connor | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:35 | 3:18 |
| M. Scheifele | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 17:17 | 3:18 |
| G. Vilardi | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 15:29 | 2:43 |
| A. Lowry | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 14:16 | 0:00 |
| A. Iafallo | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 10:53 | 0:00 |
| M. Barron | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 14:11 | 0:00 |
| C. Perfetti | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:22 | 3:09 |
| N. Niederreiter | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:45 | 1:46 |
| V. Namestnikov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:45 | 1:10 |
| G. Nyquist | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:07 | 1:11 |
| C. Koepke | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:48 | 0:00 |
| J. Toews | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11:05 | 1:20 |
| J. Morrissey | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:49 | 3:18 |
| L. Stanley | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 16:08 | 0:00 |
| D. Samberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 23:00 | 0:01 |
| N. Pionk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 21:28 | 1:11 |
| D. DeMelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:32 | 0:00 |
| L. Schenn | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 16:47 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Hellebuyck | 25 | 24 | 1 | .960 | 60:00 | Win |
| E. Comrie | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
WSH
Line 1N. Dowd13:07B. Duhaime12:59B. Trineyev11:28
Line 2A. Protas12:52J. Sourdif12:32T. Wilson10:31
Line 3E. Frank12:02H. Lapierre9:15C. McMichael9:15
Line 4D. Strome11:52A. Beauvillier13:30A. Ovechkin10:31
Pair 1J. Chychrun13:51M. Roy16:37
Pair 2R. Sandin18:19T. Riemsdyk14:45
Pair 3J. Carlson15:23M. Fehérváry14:46
WPG
Line 1M. Scheifele13:54K. Connor13:16G. Vilardi12:45
Line 2N. Niederreiter13:59C. Perfetti14:13V. Namestnikov12:51
Line 3A. Lowry11:00M. Barron10:53A. Iafallo10:01
Line 4J. Toews9:38G. Nyquist9:13C. Koepke8:21
Pair 1D. Samberg18:24N. Pionk15:51
Pair 2D. DeMelo16:11J. Morrissey14:28
Pair 3L. Schenn13:28L. Stanley15:09
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | WSH 2.8, WPG 2.9 | WSH 1, WPG 5 |
| Total goals | 5.7 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | WSH 26.5, WPG 27.2 | WSH 25, WPG 35 |
| Win chance | WPG 51% | WPG won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG K. Connor | 3.3 | 3 | 1.05 | 2 | 36% | 0 |
| WSH J. Chychrun | 3.0 | 3 | 0.65 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| WSH A. Ovechkin | 2.9 | 1 | 0.85 | 1 | 34% | 0 |
| WPG M. Scheifele | 2.3 | 1 | 1.00 | 2 | 34% | 0 |
| WSH A. Beauvillier | 2.1 | 2 | 0.41 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| WPG G. Vilardi | 2.1 | 2 | 0.75 | 2 | 30% | 2 |
| WSH T. Wilson | 2.1 | 2 | 0.74 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| WSH C. McMichael | 2.0 | 0 | 0.54 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| WPG J. Morrissey | 2.0 | 2 | 0.77 | 2 | 15% | 0 |
| WSH A. Protas | 1.9 | 2 | 0.64 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| WSH J. Carlson | 1.9 | 2 | 0.55 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| WPG C. Perfetti | 1.7 | 3 | 0.47 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| WSH D. Strome | 1.7 | 1 | 0.80 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| WPG N. Pionk | 1.7 | 4 | 0.37 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| WPG A. Iafallo | 1.5 | 2 | 0.35 | 2 | 16% | 1 |
| WSH J. Sourdif | 1.5 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| WPG N. Niederreiter | 1.5 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| WSH M. Roy | 1.4 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WPG J. Toews | 1.4 | 3 | 0.37 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| WPG M. Barron | 1.4 | 2 | 0.24 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| WPG D. Samberg | 1.3 | 3 | 0.27 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WPG A. Lowry | 1.3 | 1 | 0.32 | 2 | 15% | 0 |
| WPG V. Namestnikov | 1.3 | 3 | 0.36 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| WSH E. Frank | 1.2 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| WPG C. Koepke | 1.2 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WPG G. Nyquist | 1.2 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| WSH R. Sandin | 1.1 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| WSH M. Fehérváry | 1.0 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| WSH N. Dowd | 1.0 | 4 | 0.29 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| WPG D. DeMelo | 0.9 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WPG L. Stanley | 0.9 | 1 | 0.21 | 1 | 4% | 1 |
| WSH T. Riemsdyk | 0.8 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| WPG L. Schenn | 0.8 | 1 | 0.12 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| WSH B. Duhaime | 0.7 | 3 | 0.18 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| WSH H. Lapierre | 0.6 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.