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Game Recap
ANA3
DAL4
DAL beat ANA 4-3 in overtime, with the chances close: 3.72 expected goals to 3.79. T. Harley led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). J. Oettinger stopped 22 of 25.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| DAL | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
- 1st 11:42DALW. JohnstonPP0.10 xG
- 2nd 2:48ANAN. Nesterenko0.06 xG
- 2nd 4:25DALM. Granlund0.03 xG
- 2nd 13:03ANAL. CarlssonPP0.60 xG
- 2nd 19:20ANAL. Carlsson0.46 xG
- 3rd 4:37DALT. Harley0.23 xG
- OT 2:32DALM. Granlund0.26 xG
Team Stats
ANADAL
25Shots on goal31
3.79Expected goals3.72
56Shot attempts66
175v5 shots on goal25
1/4Power play1/4
26Hits16
17Blocked shots15
8Penalty minutes8
15Giveaways10
8Takeaways7
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
ANA 3.79 xGDAL 3.72 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
ANA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Carlsson | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:07 | 3:13 |
| T. Terry | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:42 | 3:12 |
| M. McTavish | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19:34 | 3:27 |
| R. Strome | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:52 | 3:09 |
| N. Nesterenko | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:08 | 0:00 |
| C. Gauthier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:36 | 2:43 |
| T. Zegras | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:26 | 2:19 |
| A. Killorn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:23 | 2:40 |
| F. Vatrano | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 16:30 | 2:41 |
| I. Lundestrom | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9:34 | 0:03 |
| B. Leason | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8:39 | 0:00 |
| J. Harkins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7:12 | 0:00 |
| P. Mintyukov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:25 | 0:00 |
| J. Trouba | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 25:35 | 0:00 |
| J. LaCombe | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 25:18 | 3:38 |
| R. Gudas | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 21:34 | 0:00 |
| O. Zellweger | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 20:31 | 2:30 |
| D. Helleson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:27 | 0:00 |
DAL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Hintz | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:05 | 3:55 |
| M. Granlund | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 16:24 | 1:21 |
| W. Johnston | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:02 | 3:43 |
| M. Duchene | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 16:24 | 1:20 |
| M. Marchment | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 14:55 | 1:12 |
| J. Benn | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:39 | 1:34 |
| M. Bourque | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12:49 | 0:00 |
| J. Robertson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:26 | 3:43 |
| M. Rantanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 18:53 | 3:56 |
| S. Steel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:23 | 0:00 |
| C. Blackwell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:44 | 0:00 |
| O. Bäck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:41 | 0:00 |
| T. Harley | D | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 25:40 | 3:59 |
| E. Lindell | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 25:06 | 0:20 |
| C. Ceci | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 22:09 | 0:01 |
| I. Lyubushkin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:49 | 0:00 |
| L. Bichsel | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:39 | 0:00 |
| M. Dumba | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:18 | 1:21 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Oettinger | 25 | 22 | 3 | .880 | 62:09 | Win |
| C. DeSmith | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | ANA 2.5, DAL 3.6 | ANA 3, DAL 4 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | ANA 25.7, DAL 31.7 | ANA 25, DAL 31 |
| Win chance | DAL 67% | DAL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL J. Robertson | 2.9 | 4 | 1.14 | 0 | 37% | 0 |
| DAL W. Johnston | 2.7 | 3 | 0.94 | 1 | 34% | 1 |
| DAL M. Rantanen | 2.6 | 2 | 1.11 | 0 | 37% | 0 |
| ANA F. Vatrano | 2.6 | 3 | 0.58 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| DAL T. Harley | 2.3 | 1 | 0.66 | 3 | 15% | 1 |
| DAL M. Marchment | 2.1 | 0 | 0.66 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| DAL R. Hintz | 2.0 | 2 | 0.88 | 2 | 33% | 0 |
| ANA T. Terry | 2.0 | 2 | 0.69 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| DAL M. Duchene | 1.9 | 3 | 0.91 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| ANA M. McTavish | 1.7 | 3 | 0.56 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| ANA C. Gauthier | 1.7 | 2 | 0.42 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| DAL M. Granlund | 1.7 | 4 | 0.70 | 2 | 16% | 2 |
| ANA T. Zegras | 1.6 | 1 | 0.53 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| ANA O. Zellweger | 1.6 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| ANA J. LaCombe | 1.6 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DAL J. Benn | 1.6 | 2 | 0.66 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| ANA A. Killorn | 1.6 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| ANA R. Strome | 1.6 | 1 | 0.50 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| ANA J. Trouba | 1.4 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DAL E. Lindell | 1.4 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| ANA N. Nesterenko | 1.3 | 2 | 0.22 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| DAL C. Blackwell | 1.3 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DAL C. Ceci | 1.2 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| ANA L. Carlsson | 1.2 | 3 | 0.41 | 2 | 16% | 2 |
| ANA R. Gudas | 1.2 | 3 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DAL M. Bourque | 1.2 | 2 | 0.42 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| DAL S. Steel | 1.2 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DAL L. Bichsel | 1.1 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| ANA B. Leason | 1.0 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| ANA D. Helleson | 1.0 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DAL M. Dumba | 0.9 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| ANA J. Harkins | 0.9 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| ANA P. Mintyukov | 0.8 | 1 | 0.20 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| DAL I. Lyubushkin | 0.7 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| ANA I. Lundestrom | 0.7 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DAL O. Bäck | 0.6 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.