Game Recap: ANA 7, DAL 5, November 6, 2025

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Game Recap

ANA7

FinalThu, Nov 6, 2025Every game that night

DAL5

ANA beat DAL 7-5, and the chances backed it up: 3.97 expected goals to 3.15. M. Heiskanen led the way with 4 points (0 G, 4 A). L. Dostal stopped 21 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
ANA	0	4	3	7
DAL	2	1	2	5

1st 5:49DALW. JohnstonPP0.20 xG
1st 16:18DALW. JohnstonPP0.11 xG
2nd 1:16ANAC. KreiderPP0.05 xG
2nd 2:48ANAI. Moore0.23 xG
2nd 8:19DALT. Seguin0.26 xG
2nd 14:07ANAC. Gauthier0.14 xG
2nd 17:05ANAO. ZellwegerPP0.14 xG
3rd 0:16ANAC. Kreider0.09 xG
3rd 1:50DALM. RantanenPP0.18 xG
3rd 9:22ANAL. CarlssonSH0.22 xG
3rd 16:39DALR. Hintz0.08 xG
3rd 18:07ANAM. McTavishEN0.95 xG

Team Stats

ANADAL

25Shots on goal26

3.97Expected goals3.15

61Shot attempts42

145v5 shots on goal17

2/5Power play3/5

22Hits15

10Blocked shots19

10Penalty minutes10

9Giveaways16

5Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

ANA 3.97 xGDAL 3.15 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

ANA25 on goal, 7 scored

DAL26 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

ANA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Terry	RW	0	2	2	2	0	1	+2	0	20:47	5:30
L. Carlsson	C	1	1	2	1	0	0	+2	0	20:14	5:25
C. Gauthier	LW	1	1	2	4	1	0	+1	0	18:40	5:32
A. Killorn	LW	0	2	2	0	3	0	+1	0	18:35	2:52
C. Kreider	LW	2	0	2	4	0	0	+1	0	17:53	6:32
B. Sennecke	RW	0	2	2	1	1	0	+1	0	14:21	1:43
R. Poehling	C	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	14:57	1:04
M. McTavish	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	+2	2	14:50	1:43
N. Nesterenko	C	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	2	11:30	0:00
J. Harkins	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	9:52	0:00
R. Johnston	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	9:43	0:00
F. Vatrano	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	8:51	0:00
D. Helleson	D	0	1	1	0	4	1	+1	0	20:02	0:00
O. Zellweger	D	1	0	1	2	2	2	+2	0	17:58	1:41
I. Moore	D	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	4	10:12	0:00
J. LaCombe	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	29:21	6:45
J. Trouba	D	0	0	0	4	3	1	+2	2	24:12	2:33
P. Mintyukov	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	12:48	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Dostal	26	21	5	.808	59:49	Win
P. Mrazek	0	0	0	–	0:00

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
W. Johnston	C	2	1	3	3	0	1	-1	0	22:02	4:21
M. Rantanen	RW	1	2	3	5	0	1	-2	2	21:45	4:21
J. Robertson	LW	0	2	2	3	0	0	-3	0	19:45	4:21
S. Steel	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	2	19:40	0:43
R. Hintz	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	-2	0	18:15	4:21
T. Seguin	C	1	0	1	2	2	0	0	0	15:47	0:43
O. Bäck	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	12:31	0:00
J. Hryckowian	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	11:18	0:00
C. Blackwell	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	11:10	0:00
M. Bourque	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	11:09	0:43
R. Faksa	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	7:03	0:00
A. Erne	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	7:00	0:00
M. Heiskanen	D	0	4	4	2	0	4	-1	2	26:07	4:21
E. Lindell	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	22:17	0:43
T. Harley	D	0	0	0	2	0	4	-1	0	22:09	0:43
I. Lyubushkin	D	0	0	0	0	2	3	-1	0	17:31	0:00
L. Bichsel	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	14:52	0:00
A. Petrovic	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	2	12:47	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Oettinger	24	18	6	.750	58:15	Loss
C. DeSmith	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

ANA

Line 1T. Terry12:56L. Carlsson12:21C. Kreider11:21

Line 2M. McTavish12:36C. Gauthier12:48B. Sennecke12:07

Line 3R. Poehling10:01N. Nesterenko10:06A. Killorn12:05

Line 4R. Johnston9:14J. Harkins9:25F. Vatrano8:06

Pair 1J. LaCombe18:26D. Helleson16:39

Pair 2J. Trouba17:47O. Zellweger14:10

Pair 3P. Mintyukov11:46I. Moore10:01

DAL

Line 1M. Rantanen15:39W. Johnston15:23S. Steel16:10

Line 2R. Hintz11:18J. Robertson13:27T. Seguin14:02

Line 3O. Bäck8:24J. Hryckowian8:37M. Bourque10:13

Line 4C. Blackwell7:03R. Faksa5:47A. Erne7:00

Pair 1M. Heiskanen16:14E. Lindell14:42

Pair 2T. Harley18:36I. Lyubushkin14:39

Pair 3A. Petrovic11:40L. Bichsel13:01

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	ANA 2.9, DAL 3.3	ANA 7, DAL 5
Total goals	6.2	12
Shots on goal	ANA 28.9, DAL 29.5	ANA 25, DAL 26
Win chance	DAL 57%	ANA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
DAL J. Robertson	3.7	3	1.29	2	42%	0
ANA C. Gauthier	3.2	4	0.75	2	27%	1
DAL W. Johnston	3.1	3	0.98	3	38%	2
DAL M. Rantanen	3.0	5	1.31	3	41%	1
DAL T. Seguin	2.8	2	0.90	1	33%	1
DAL M. Heiskanen	2.7	2	0.78	4	15%	0
DAL R. Hintz	2.5	3	0.92	1	33%	1
ANA T. Terry	2.4	2	0.75	2	25%	0
ANA M. McTavish	2.2	1	0.61	1	21%	1
ANA C. Kreider	2.2	4	0.61	2	30%	2
DAL T. Harley	2.0	2	0.58	0	13%	0
ANA O. Zellweger	1.9	2	0.25	1	6%	1
ANA F. Vatrano	1.9	1	0.39	0	18%	0
ANA L. Carlsson	1.8	1	0.70	2	21%	1
ANA J. LaCombe	1.8	3	0.48	0	10%	0
ANA A. Killorn	1.8	0	0.49	2	20%	0
DAL M. Bourque	1.7	1	0.39	0	16%	0
ANA J. Trouba	1.7	4	0.30	0	6%	0
ANA B. Sennecke	1.7	1	0.46	2	18%	0
ANA N. Nesterenko	1.5	0	0.39	1	16%	0
DAL S. Steel	1.4	1	0.49	1	15%	0
ANA D. Helleson	1.4	0	0.28	1	8%	0
DAL E. Lindell	1.3	1	0.34	0	8%	0
DAL C. Blackwell	1.2	0	0.26	0	12%	0
ANA R. Poehling	1.1	0	0.37	1	13%	0
ANA I. Moore	1.0	1	0.14	1	3%	1
ANA P. Mintyukov	1.0	0	0.26	0	5%	0
DAL J. Hryckowian	1.0	0	0.18	0	11%	0
DAL A. Petrovic	0.9	2	0.13	0	4%	0
DAL R. Faksa	0.9	1	0.28	0	10%	0
DAL L. Bichsel	0.9	0	0.17	0	5%	0
ANA J. Harkins	0.8	0	0.13	0	7%	0
DAL A. Erne	0.8	0	0.21	0	9%	0
DAL I. Lyubushkin	0.8	0	0.19	0	2%	0
DAL O. Bäck	0.6	0	0.25	0	9%	0
ANA R. Johnston	0.4	1	0.14	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.