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Game Recap
ANA1
FinalThu, Oct 22, 2026Every game that night
NJD4

NJD beat ANA 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.27 expected goals to 1.33. NJD outshot ANA 29 to 17. J. Hughes led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). N. Daws stopped 16 of 17.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
ANA0011
NJD2024
  1. 1st 4:38NJDA. Gritsyuk0.17 xG
  2. 1st 19:19NJDN. HischierPP0.70 xG
  3. 3rd 8:20ANAT. Washe0.10 xG
  4. 3rd 13:27NJDA. Mantha0.26 xG
  5. 3rd 19:53NJDJ. HughesEN0.88 xG

Team Stats

ANANJD
17Shots on goal29
1.33Expected goals4.27
49Shot attempts55
175v5 shots on goal26
0/1Power play1/2
27Hits12
12Blocked shots13
4Penalty minutes2
15Giveaways20
5Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

ANA 1.33 xGNJD 4.27 xGGoal

012341st2nd3rdNJD goal, 4:38NJD goal, 19:19ANA goal, 8:20NJD goal, 13:27NJD goal, 19:53

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

ANA16 on goal, 1 scored
NJD28 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

ANA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
T. WasheC1011000014:080:00
S. ColangeloRW011220+1011:580:33
B. SenneckeRW000110-1220:141:25
M. GranlundC0001010020:061:27
L. CarlssonC000100-2019:131:25
C. GauthierLW000210-3019:011:31
A. KillornLW000120-2215:230:29
A. GreerLW0000300013:200:00
N. NesterenkoC0001310012:320:00
R. McQueenC0000210012:140:35
F. VatranoRW0001210011:520:00
N. KlepovRW0000000011:490:35
J. LaCombeD011022-1027:531:38
T. HindsD000341-1022:150:00
T. LuneauD000001-1021:140:22
D. HellesonD000311-1016:100:00
N. WarrenD0000310016:030:00
N. JensenD0000120012:590:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
V. Husso28253.89358:01Loss
L. Dostal000–0:00

NJD Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
J. HughesC112200+1018:492:17
J. BrattLW022201+1015:282:17
L. EvangelistaRW0112000017:161:35
N. HischierC101200+1016:312:17
A. GritsyukRW101410+1015:400:00
A. ManthaRW101100+1011:340:00
T. MeierRW0005300016:400:56
D. MercerC000103+1013:551:01
C. GlassC0001210013:450:25
J. BoqvistC0001300013:410:26
C. BrownRW0001000013:000:17
E. RodriguesC0001020012:550:53
B. PesceD011203+1221:321:01
L. HughesD000201+1024:192:17
J. SiegenthalerD000122+1021:150:22
D. HamiltonD000010+1021:090:59
J. KovacevicD0001000015:410:00
D. ChisholmD0000000014:500:52
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
N. Daws17161.94160:00Win
J. Allen000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

ANA

Line 1L. Carlsson15:48B. Sennecke16:50A. Killorn13:41
Line 2M. Granlund15:28C. Gauthier14:39N. Nesterenko11:30
Line 3A. Greer12:53S. Colangelo11:25T. Washe12:11
Line 4F. Vatrano9:55R. McQueen11:39N. Klepov11:14
Pair 1J. LaCombe23:24T. Luneau19:38
Pair 2T. Hinds19:52N. Warren13:52
Pair 3N. Jensen12:59D. Helleson15:12

NJD

Line 1J. Hughes16:05A. Gritsyuk14:40J. Bratt12:44
Line 2T. Meier14:35L. Evangelista14:59N. Hischier13:00
Line 3A. Mantha11:34D. Mercer12:11E. Rodrigues11:30
Line 4C. Brown11:08J. Boqvist12:15C. Glass12:12
Pair 1D. Hamilton18:55J. Siegenthaler19:21
Pair 2B. Pesce18:59L. Hughes19:18
Pair 3J. Kovacevic14:46D. Chisholm13:58

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

3 of 19 overs hit (16%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
ANA C. Gauthier3.5+106-1382Under
NJD J. Hughes3.5+115-1202Under
NJD A. Gritsyuk2.5+158-1804Over
ANA B. Sennecke2.5-110-1181Under
NJD D. Hamilton2.5+140-1500Under
ANA L. Carlsson2.5+130-1481Under
NJD L. Evangelista2.5+135-1552Under
NJD L. Hughes2.5+130-1682Under
NJD N. Hischier2.5+130-1552Under
NJD T. Meier2.5-135+1205Over
ANA A. Killorn1.5+105-1351Under
NJD A. Mantha1.5+100-1301Under
NJD D. Mercer1.5-115+1001Under
NJD E. Rodrigues1.5-145+1151Under
NJD J. Bratt1.5-150+1402Over
ANA J. LaCombe1.5+105-1250Under
ANA M. Granlund1.5-115+1001Under
ANA N. Nesterenko1.5+145-2001Under
ANA R. McQueen1.5+105-1350Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreANA 3.0, NJD 3.3ANA 1, NJD 4
Total goals6.35
Shots on goalANA 27.2, NJD 30.2ANA 17, NJD 29
Win chanceNJD 55%NJD won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
NJD J. Hughes3.521.28238%1
ANA C. Gauthier3.220.79030%0
NJD T. Meier3.050.64028%0
ANA B. Sennecke2.610.78029%0
NJD D. Hamilton2.500.62015%0
ANA L. Carlsson2.410.82027%0
NJD L. Hughes2.320.72014%0
NJD A. Gritsyuk2.340.57121%1
NJD L. Evangelista2.220.74121%0
NJD N. Hischier2.220.87131%1
NJD J. Bratt2.120.97227%0
NJD E. Rodrigues2.010.54019%0
ANA M. Granlund1.810.77023%0
NJD C. Brown1.710.69023%0
ANA A. Killorn1.710.47021%0
NJD D. Mercer1.710.49021%0
ANA J. LaCombe1.600.73112%0
NJD A. Mantha1.510.61123%1
ANA N. Nesterenko1.410.34014%0
ANA F. Vatrano1.410.31015%0
NJD C. Glass1.310.36016%0
ANA A. Greer1.300.34014%0
NJD B. Pesce1.320.3016%0
ANA T. Hinds1.130.1303%0
NJD J. Boqvist1.110.31014%0
ANA S. Colangelo1.020.27115%0
ANA T. Washe0.910.25112%1
ANA D. Helleson0.830.2505%0
NJD J. Kovacevic0.810.2204%0
ANA N. Warren0.800.2504%0
NJD D. Chisholm0.800.2205%0
NJD J. Siegenthaler0.710.2504%0
ANA N. Jensen0.700.2605%0

Shots on goal: 22 of 33 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.