UTA beat ANA 3-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.56 expected goals to 1.99. UTA outshot ANA 39 to 21. D. Guenther led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). D. Guenther had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 3.3. K. Vejmelka stopped 19 of 21.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| UTA | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
- 1st 11:03UTAJ. McBain0.07 xG
- 2nd 14:31UTAA. Kerfoot0.07 xG
- 2nd 15:53ANAA. Killorn0.05 xG
- 3rd 3:22ANAM. McTavishPP0.10 xG
- 3rd 7:03UTAD. GuentherPP0.09 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
ANA 1.99 xGUTA 4.56 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
ANA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Killorn | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:03 | 1:49 |
| T. Zegras | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:00 | 1:46 |
| M. McTavish | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 16:39 | 1:46 |
| L. Carlsson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 14:51 | 1:43 |
| C. Gauthier | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:26 | 0:00 |
| F. Vatrano | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 20:49 | 1:50 |
| T. Terry | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:45 | 1:54 |
| R. Strome | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:15 | 1:48 |
| I. Lundestrom | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:01 | 0:00 |
| B. Leason | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:19 | 0:00 |
| S. Colangelo | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 10:54 | 1:33 |
| R. Johnston | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7:05 | 0:00 |
| J. LaCombe | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 28:12 | 1:18 |
| R. Gudas | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24:11 | 0:00 |
| O. Zellweger | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 2 | 20:02 | 2:16 |
| J. Trouba | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 19:57 | 0:07 |
| D. Helleson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:00 | 0:00 |
| P. Mintyukov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 11:20 | 0:00 |
UTA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Guenther | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:36 | 3:57 |
| C. Keller | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:03 | 4:25 |
| B. Hayton | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:54 | 4:19 |
| A. Kerfoot | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:43 | 0:00 |
| J. McBain | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 14:11 | 1:11 |
| J. Doan | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:29 | 0:00 |
| L. Cooley | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 19:52 | 1:49 |
| N. Schmaltz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:40 | 3:47 |
| L. Crouse | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:59 | 1:34 |
| K. Stenlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:31 | 0:01 |
| M. Carcone | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:50 | 1:16 |
| L. O'Brien | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:52 | 0:00 |
| M. Sergachev | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 4 | 20:47 | 3:39 |
| I. Cole | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 19:36 | 0:05 |
| S. Durzi | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 20:37 | 1:57 |
| J. Marino | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 20:24 | 0:00 |
| O. Maatta | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:29 | 0:00 |
| M. Kesselring | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:53 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Vejmelka | 21 | 19 | 2 | .905 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Stauber | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | ANA 2.6, UTA 3.6 | ANA 2, UTA 3 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | ANA 25.2, UTA 33.2 | ANA 21, UTA 39 |
| Win chance | UTA 67% | UTA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA D. Guenther | 3.3 | 8 | 1.00 | 2 | 36% | 1 |
| UTA C. Keller | 3.0 | 2 | 1.25 | 1 | 37% | 0 |
| ANA F. Vatrano | 2.7 | 3 | 0.57 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| UTA B. Hayton | 2.4 | 6 | 0.68 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| UTA L. Cooley | 2.3 | 1 | 0.85 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| UTA N. Schmaltz | 2.3 | 4 | 0.92 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| UTA M. Sergachev | 1.9 | 0 | 0.75 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| ANA T. Terry | 1.9 | 4 | 0.67 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| ANA M. McTavish | 1.8 | 2 | 0.55 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| UTA J. Doan | 1.8 | 3 | 0.53 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| ANA T. Zegras | 1.7 | 1 | 0.53 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| ANA C. Gauthier | 1.7 | 2 | 0.39 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| UTA S. Durzi | 1.7 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| ANA A. Killorn | 1.6 | 1 | 0.47 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| ANA J. LaCombe | 1.6 | 0 | 0.45 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| UTA L. Crouse | 1.6 | 4 | 0.38 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| ANA R. Strome | 1.6 | 2 | 0.50 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| ANA O. Zellweger | 1.5 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| UTA M. Kesselring | 1.5 | 2 | 0.33 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| UTA M. Carcone | 1.5 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| ANA S. Colangelo | 1.5 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| ANA J. Trouba | 1.4 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| UTA A. Kerfoot | 1.3 | 3 | 0.44 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| ANA L. Carlsson | 1.3 | 2 | 0.41 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| UTA K. Stenlund | 1.2 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| UTA J. McBain | 1.2 | 1 | 0.40 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| ANA R. Gudas | 1.2 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| UTA O. Maatta | 1.1 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| ANA B. Leason | 1.0 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| UTA L. O'Brien | 1.0 | 2 | 0.17 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| ANA D. Helleson | 1.0 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| UTA J. Marino | 1.0 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| UTA I. Cole | 0.9 | 1 | 0.21 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| ANA P. Mintyukov | 0.8 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| ANA I. Lundestrom | 0.8 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| ANA R. Johnston | 0.4 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.