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Game Recap
ANA4
UTA1
ANA beat UTA 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.07 expected goals to 3.25. A. Killorn led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). N. Schmidt had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. L. Dostal stopped 29 of 30.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| UTA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
- 1st 1:48UTAD. Guenther0.15 xG
- 1st 13:37ANAR. PoehlingSH0.21 xG
- 2nd 9:09ANAA. Killorn0.03 xG
- 3rd 18:24ANAC. GauthierEN0.76 xG
- 3rd 19:05ANAM. GranlundEN0.83 xG
Team Stats
ANAUTA
24Shots on goal30
4.07Expected goals3.25
48Shot attempts74
145v5 shots on goal25
0/5Power play0/3
20Hits18
28Blocked shots12
21Penalty minutes17
14Giveaways17
5Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
ANA 4.07 xGUTA 3.25 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
ANA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Killorn | LW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:39 | 2:36 |
| R. Poehling | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 4 | +2 | 0 | 19:04 | 0:50 |
| C. Gauthier | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:56 | 5:24 |
| M. Granlund | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:35 | 2:54 |
| B. Sennecke | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:09 | 3:51 |
| J. Viel | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 5 | 15:00 | 0:00 |
| C. Kreider | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:01 | 5:10 |
| L. Carlsson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:44 | 5:04 |
| T. Terry | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:36 | 4:57 |
| M. McTavish | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:22 | 3:33 |
| T. Washe | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 2 | 10:20 | 0:00 |
| J. Harkins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 8:18 | 0:00 |
| J. Carlson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 24:19 | 4:24 |
| P. Mintyukov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 22:51 | 0:00 |
| J. Trouba | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | +2 | 2 | 20:33 | 0:04 |
| J. LaCombe | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 19:54 | 3:37 |
| O. Zellweger | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:10 | 0:48 |
| I. Moore | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 11:29 | 0:48 |
UTA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Guenther | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:17 | 4:34 |
| J. Peterka | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:06 | 1:24 |
| C. Keller | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 20:31 | 4:43 |
| L. Crouse | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 20:29 | 1:56 |
| N. Schmaltz | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:22 | 4:04 |
| L. Cooley | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:56 | 1:26 |
| B. Hayton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 14:44 | 4:37 |
| K. Stenlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:15 | 0:00 |
| M. Carcone | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:44 | 1:08 |
| J. McBain | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 5 | 10:39 | 0:00 |
| A. Kerfoot | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:32 | 0:00 |
| K. Yamamoto | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7:17 | 0:00 |
| S. Durzi | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:42 | 0:00 |
| M. Sergachev | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 2 | 23:15 | 4:37 |
| J. Marino | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 20:28 | 0:10 |
| M. Weegar | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 20:12 | 1:13 |
| N. Schmidt | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18:13 | 0:00 |
| I. Cole | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 16:24 | 0:08 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V. Vanecek | 22 | 20 | 2 | .909 | 59:06 | Loss |
| K. Vejmelka | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
ANA
Line 1R. Poehling14:16J. Viel14:32C. Gauthier11:04
Line 2C. Kreider12:32T. Terry12:28L. Carlsson12:04
Line 3A. Killorn10:02B. Sennecke11:18M. Granlund11:28
Line 4J. Harkins8:18T. Washe7:58M. McTavish6:49
Pair 1J. Carlson16:14P. Mintyukov18:09
Pair 2J. LaCombe16:07J. Trouba17:47
Pair 3O. Zellweger10:17I. Moore10:07
UTA
Line 1L. Crouse15:04C. Keller15:20N. Schmaltz13:45
Line 2M. Carcone11:10B. Hayton9:47J. McBain8:13
Line 3J. Peterka11:16D. Guenther11:48L. Cooley13:29
Line 4A. Kerfoot6:58K. Yamamoto7:17K. Stenlund8:16
Pair 1N. Schmidt15:25J. Marino17:45
Pair 2M. Weegar15:17M. Sergachev14:13
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | ANA 3.0, UTA 3.2 | ANA 4, UTA 1 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | ANA 27.8, UTA 27.7 | ANA 24, UTA 30 |
| Win chance | UTA 52% | ANA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA C. Gauthier | 3.2 | 2 | 0.78 | 1 | 31% | 1 |
| UTA D. Guenther | 2.9 | 3 | 0.86 | 1 | 33% | 1 |
| UTA C. Keller | 2.7 | 1 | 1.02 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| ANA B. Sennecke | 2.4 | 3 | 0.75 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| UTA N. Schmaltz | 2.3 | 5 | 0.92 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| ANA J. Trouba | 2.1 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| ANA L. Carlsson | 2.1 | 2 | 0.74 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| ANA T. Terry | 1.9 | 1 | 0.69 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| UTA M. Sergachev | 1.9 | 2 | 0.71 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| UTA B. Hayton | 1.9 | 3 | 0.52 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| UTA M. Weegar | 1.9 | 2 | 0.42 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| UTA L. Cooley | 1.8 | 1 | 0.69 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| ANA A. Killorn | 1.8 | 4 | 0.47 | 3 | 22% | 1 |
| ANA J. Carlson | 1.8 | 2 | 0.54 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| ANA C. Kreider | 1.8 | 2 | 0.65 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| UTA M. Carcone | 1.8 | 3 | 0.44 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| UTA L. Crouse | 1.7 | 2 | 0.51 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| ANA J. LaCombe | 1.7 | 0 | 0.55 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| UTA J. Peterka | 1.7 | 2 | 0.57 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| ANA M. Granlund | 1.7 | 3 | 0.64 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| ANA M. McTavish | 1.5 | 2 | 0.44 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| ANA O. Zellweger | 1.5 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| UTA S. Durzi | 1.3 | 0 | 0.47 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| UTA J. McBain | 1.3 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| ANA R. Poehling | 1.3 | 1 | 0.47 | 2 | 16% | 1 |
| ANA J. Viel | 1.2 | 0 | 0.20 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| ANA P. Mintyukov | 1.1 | 1 | 0.30 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| UTA N. Schmidt | 1.1 | 4 | 0.34 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| ANA I. Moore | 1.0 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| UTA K. Stenlund | 1.0 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| UTA A. Kerfoot | 1.0 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| UTA K. Yamamoto | 1.0 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| ANA T. Washe | 0.9 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| UTA I. Cole | 0.7 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| UTA J. Marino | 0.7 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| ANA J. Harkins | 0.6 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.