Game Recap: ANA 1, VGK 3, December 23, 2024

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

ANA1

FinalMon, Dec 23, 2024Every game that night

VGK3

VGK beat ANA 3-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.90 expected goals to 2.52. T. Hertl led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). T. Hertl had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. A. Hill stopped 31 of 32.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
ANA	0	0	1	1
VGK	1	0	2	3

1st 19:19VGKT. PearsonSH0.19 xG
3rd 1:13ANAM. McTavish0.29 xG
3rd 9:36VGKT. Hertl0.13 xG
3rd 15:50VGKK. Kolesar0.14 xG

Team Stats

ANAVGK

32Shots on goal33

2.52Expected goals4.90

65Shot attempts66

205v5 shots on goal27

0/4Power play0/3

18Hits13

10Blocked shots16

6Penalty minutes8

6Giveaways8

3Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

ANA 2.52 xGVGK 4.90 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

ANA32 on goal, 1 scored

VGK33 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

ANA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Fabbri	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	20:06	3:44
M. McTavish	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0	17:22	3:34
T. Terry	RW	0	0	0	4	0	0	-1	0	21:14	4:10
A. Killorn	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	19:42	3:36
F. Vatrano	RW	0	0	0	5	2	0	-1	0	18:50	4:13
R. Strome	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	2	17:22	4:00
L. Carlsson	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	2	16:28	3:05
C. Gauthier	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	16:21	3:43
B. Leason	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	15:11	1:17
I. Lundestrom	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	13:48	0:13
J. Harkins	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	9:31	0:13
B. McGinn	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1:15	0:00
R. Gudas	D	0	1	1	0	4	1	+1	2	16:23	0:00
J. LaCombe	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	+1	0	20:27	3:39
O. Zellweger	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	-2	0	18:52	4:07
B. Dumoulin	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	18:37	0:13
D. Helleson	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	-1	0	18:15	0:00
J. Trouba	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	-1	0	16:47	0:13

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Gibson	11	11	0	1.000	17:32
L. Dostal	22	19	3	.864	39:57	Loss

VGK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Kolesar	RW	1	1	2	3	0	1	+2	2	16:46	0:17
T. Hertl	C	1	1	2	5	1	1	+1	0	16:38	3:19
J. Eichel	C	0	1	1	4	0	1	+1	0	20:35	4:17
W. Karlsson	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	20:27	2:25
T. Pearson	LW	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	11:55	0:00
M. Stone	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	19:30	3:11
B. Howden	C	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	15:52	0:17
V. Olofsson	LW	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	0	14:53	3:17
P. Dorofeyev	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	14:40	2:04
A. Holtz	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	10:17	2:01
T. Laczynski	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	8:27	0:31
C. Schwindt	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	6:22	0:00
S. Theodore	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+2	0	18:46	3:32
N. Hanifin	D	0	0	0	2	0	4	0	0	24:32	2:05
A. Pietrangelo	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	0	0	22:08	0:49
B. McNabb	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+2	4	19:31	0:00
N. Hague	D	0	0	0	4	1	3	0	0	15:23	0:00
Z. Whitecloud	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	15:18	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Hill	32	31	1	.969	60:00	Win
I. Samsonov	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	ANA 2.5, VGK 4.0	ANA 1, VGK 3
Total goals	6.5	4
Shots on goal	ANA 26.1, VGK 34.3	ANA 32, VGK 33
Win chance	VGK 73%	VGK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
VGK J. Eichel	3.5	4	1.29	1	36%	0
ANA F. Vatrano	3.0	5	0.57	0	27%	0
VGK P. Dorofeyev	2.6	1	0.63	0	30%	0
VGK W. Karlsson	2.4	2	0.83	1	28%	0
ANA T. Terry	2.3	4	0.70	0	26%	0
VGK A. Pietrangelo	2.2	2	0.61	0	11%	0
VGK S. Theodore	2.1	1	0.81	1	12%	0
VGK M. Stone	2.1	1	1.14	0	32%	0
VGK N. Hanifin	2.0	2	0.61	0	13%	0
VGK T. Hertl	2.0	5	0.68	2	25%	1
VGK V. Olofsson	2.0	4	0.63	0	29%	0
ANA C. Gauthier	1.9	3	0.42	0	13%	0
ANA O. Zellweger	1.8	3	0.32	0	7%	0
ANA M. McTavish	1.7	3	0.51	1	19%	1
ANA A. Killorn	1.7	3	0.50	0	21%	0
ANA R. Strome	1.6	1	0.48	0	16%	0
VGK B. Howden	1.6	0	0.51	0	24%	0
ANA J. Trouba	1.5	0	0.26	0	5%	0
ANA R. Fabbri	1.5	2	0.45	1	21%	0
VGK B. McNabb	1.4	1	0.32	0	6%	0
ANA B. Leason	1.4	0	0.32	0	14%	0
VGK K. Kolesar	1.3	3	0.41	2	17%	1
VGK T. Pearson	1.3	1	0.37	1	14%	1
VGK N. Hague	1.2	4	0.20	0	5%	0
VGK A. Holtz	1.2	1	0.32	0	14%	0
ANA L. Carlsson	1.2	3	0.36	0	16%	0
ANA J. LaCombe	1.1	1	0.29	0	7%	0
ANA B. McGinn	1.1	0	0.23	0	12%	0
ANA D. Helleson	1.0	2	0.29	0	6%	0
VGK Z. Whitecloud	1.0	1	0.23	0	7%	0
ANA R. Gudas	0.9	0	0.18	1	3%	0
ANA B. Dumoulin	0.9	1	0.20	0	3%	0
VGK C. Schwindt	0.8	0	0.24	0	7%	0
ANA I. Lundestrom	0.8	1	0.21	0	11%	0
ANA J. Harkins	0.8	0	0.16	0	7%	0
VGK T. Laczynski	0.7	0	0.17	0	9%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.