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Game Recap
ANA2
Final/OTTue, May 12, 2026PlayoffsEvery game that night
VGK3

VGK beat ANA 3-2 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 4.31 expected goals to 2.64. P. Dorofeyev led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). M. McTavish had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. C. Hart stopped 34 of 36.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdOTT
ANA10102
VGK10113
  1. 1st 12:36ANAB. SenneckePP0.22 xG
  2. 1st 16:13VGKP. DorofeyevPP0.12 xG
  3. 3rd 4:48VGKT. Hertl0.54 xG
  4. 3rd 16:55ANAO. Zellweger0.13 xG
  5. OT 4:10VGKP. Dorofeyev0.46 xG

Team Stats

ANAVGK
36Shots on goal32
2.64Expected goals4.31
73Shot attempts63
325v5 shots on goal29
1/2Power play1/1
26Hits29
8Blocked shots18
2Penalty minutes15
12Giveaways17
8Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

ANA 2.64 xGVGK 4.31 xGGoal

012341st2nd3rdOTANA goal, 12:36VGK goal, 16:13VGK goal, 4:48ANA goal, 16:55VGK goal, 4:10

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

ANA34 on goal, 2 scored
VGK32 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

ANA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
C. GauthierLW0224210020:053:14
M. McTavishC0226300014:313:12
B. SenneckeRW1014300024:133:22
M. GranlundC0000000022:361:43
A. KillornLW0003110022:243:10
L. CarlssonC000201-1019:091:43
T. WasheC0001410016:520:03
C. KreiderLW000010-1014:511:43
T. TerryRW000200-1014:171:38
J. VielLW000230+1013:390:00
R. JohnstonLW000020-1010:500:04
R. PoehlingC000200002:200:00
O. ZellwegerD1011000016:330:00
J. LaCombeD000100-1030:473:02
J. CarlsonD0003220026:161:58
J. TroubaD0001400025:490:08
P. MintyukovD0004010214:120:00
I. MooreD000011-109:520:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
L. Dostal32293.90664:10Loss
V. Husso000–0:00

VGK Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
J. EichelC022601+1023:041:34
P. DorofeyevRW202402+1016:301:34
T. HertlC1121300014:411:34
B. SaadLW0112000011:380:00
M. MarnerRW0001010020:521:34
B. HowdenC0000310018:450:00
I. BarbashevLW000170+1018:200:00
W. KarlssonC0001030017:080:00
C. SissonsC0000200014:130:00
K. KolesarRW0003300012:030:00
C. SmithRW0000500010:540:00
N. DowdC0000400010:390:00
R. AnderssonD011301+1026:370:00
S. TheodoreD000214+1030:001:34
N. HanifinD0003020028:010:00
D. CoghlanD000212-1020:050:00
B. HuttonD000301+1019:030:00
B. McNabbD0000000153:170:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
C. Hart36342.94464:10Win
A. Hill000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

ANA

Line 1M. Granlund20:04B. Sennecke20:51A. Killorn18:29
Line 2T. Washe15:48J. Viel13:39R. Johnston10:46
Line 3C. Gauthier16:51M. McTavish11:19L. Carlsson17:26
Line 4C. Kreider12:35T. Terry12:39
Pair 1J. LaCombe27:45J. Trouba24:43
Pair 2J. Carlson23:42P. Mintyukov14:12
Pair 3O. Zellweger15:35I. Moore9:16

VGK

Line 1I. Barbashev18:20J. Eichel19:05P. Dorofeyev14:56
Line 2M. Marner17:43B. Howden17:10W. Karlsson15:56
Line 3B. Saad11:38T. Hertl13:07C. Sissons13:48
Line 4K. Kolesar11:10C. Smith10:20N. Dowd9:17
Pair 1R. Andersson23:54N. Hanifin25:14
Pair 2S. Theodore26:12B. Hutton19:03

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreANA 3.0, VGK 3.4ANA 2, VGK 3
Total goals6.45
Shots on goalANA 27.5, VGK 28.6ANA 36, VGK 32
Win chanceVGK 57%VGK won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
VGK J. Eichel3.261.33234%0
VGK P. Dorofeyev2.740.78235%2
ANA C. Gauthier2.740.64227%0
ANA L. Carlsson2.420.71025%0
VGK M. Marner2.311.26031%0
ANA T. Terry2.220.73024%0
VGK S. Theodore2.120.85016%0
ANA B. Sennecke2.040.55120%1
VGK R. Andersson2.030.51113%0
VGK W. Karlsson1.910.61022%0
VGK T. Hertl1.810.62223%1
ANA A. Killorn1.830.49021%0
ANA J. Carlson1.830.60011%0
ANA J. Trouba1.810.3007%0
VGK D. Coghlan1.720.1904%0
VGK I. Barbashev1.710.77025%0
VGK N. Hanifin1.730.51010%0
ANA M. Granlund1.600.62018%0
ANA C. Kreider1.600.58027%0
ANA J. LaCombe1.610.60010%0
ANA M. McTavish1.560.42216%0
VGK B. Howden1.500.57025%0
VGK B. McNabb1.500.3207%0
VGK B. Saad1.320.30115%0
ANA J. Viel1.220.2209%0
VGK C. Sissons1.200.31012%0
ANA R. Poehling1.220.40014%0
VGK B. Hutton1.130.2406%0
VGK N. Dowd1.000.33015%0
ANA P. Mintyukov1.040.2506%0
ANA O. Zellweger1.010.1815%1
VGK C. Smith1.000.24010%0
ANA T. Washe0.810.1508%0
VGK K. Kolesar0.730.23010%0
ANA I. Moore0.700.1204%0
ANA R. Johnston0.500.1605%0

Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.