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Game Recap
ANA4
WSH7
WSH beat ANA 7-4, with the chances close: 2.77 expected goals to 2.99. ANA outshot WSH 45 to 29. J. Sourdif scored three for WSH. A. Killorn had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. C. Lindgren stopped 41 of 45.
Team Stats
ANAWSH
45Shots on goal29
2.99Expected goals2.77
82Shot attempts43
405v5 shots on goal25
0/3Power play0/2
13Hits20
7Blocked shots22
14Penalty minutes16
12Giveaways11
6Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
ANA 2.99 xGWSH 2.77 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
ANA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Sennecke | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:25 | 2:42 |
| C. Gauthier | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:20 | 1:35 |
| T. Terry | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:29 | 1:35 |
| C. Kreider | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:49 | 1:30 |
| A. Killorn | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 12:07 | 0:00 |
| R. Johnston | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 5 | 10:10 | 0:00 |
| M. Granlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -5 | 0 | 17:41 | 2:45 |
| M. McTavish | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:06 | 2:48 |
| L. Carlsson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:54 | 2:42 |
| R. Poehling | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:53 | 0:00 |
| N. Nesterenko | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 12:25 | 0:00 |
| R. Strome | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -4 | 0 | 10:51 | 0:00 |
| O. Zellweger | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 19:40 | 0:00 |
| J. Trouba | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 5 | 18:48 | 1:31 |
| J. LaCombe | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -4 | 0 | 17:27 | 1:47 |
| P. Mintyukov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 22:50 | 2:30 |
| I. Moore | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:09 | 0:00 |
| R. Gudas | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:29 | 0:00 |
WSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Sourdif | C | 3 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 16:59 | 0:30 |
| C. McMichael | LW | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 21:37 | 0:37 |
| A. Ovechkin | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 16:39 | 1:59 |
| R. Leonard | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:56 | 1:34 |
| N. Dowd | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:03 | 0:00 |
| A. Beauvillier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 20:58 | 0:09 |
| D. Strome | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:48 | 1:38 |
| E. Frank | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 16:18 | 0:34 |
| B. Duhaime | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 5 | 16:04 | 0:00 |
| H. Lapierre | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6:25 | 0:08 |
| S. Milano | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:08 | 0:00 |
| M. Fehérváry | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 20:13 | 0:16 |
| J. Carlson | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 2 | 19:40 | 1:39 |
| M. Roy | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 22:22 | 0:10 |
| J. Chychrun | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 22:16 | 1:41 |
| R. Sandin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 18:45 | 0:30 |
| T. van Riemsdyk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:07 | 0:00 |
| D. McIlrath | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 5 | 5:42 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Lindgren | 45 | 41 | 4 | .911 | 60:00 | Win |
| L. Thompson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
ANA
Line 1M. McTavish13:48B. Sennecke14:23C. Gauthier15:30
Line 2T. Terry14:11L. Carlsson13:39C. Kreider12:44
Line 3N. Nesterenko12:17M. Granlund12:27R. Strome10:43
Line 4A. Killorn12:00R. Poehling11:31R. Johnston10:10
Pair 1P. Mintyukov18:26I. Moore19:13
Pair 2O. Zellweger18:30J. Trouba16:20
Pair 3R. Gudas15:47J. LaCombe14:11
WSH
Line 1J. Sourdif15:31C. McMichael16:55R. Leonard14:22
Line 2N. Dowd16:49E. Frank15:44B. Duhaime14:39
Line 3D. Strome14:07A. Beauvillier18:01A. Ovechkin14:32
Line 4S. Milano6:08H. Lapierre6:17
Pair 1J. Chychrun19:13M. Roy18:27
Pair 2J. Carlson16:10M. Fehérváry17:37
Pair 3R. Sandin15:43T. Riemsdyk9:57
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | ANA 2.9, WSH 3.4 | ANA 4, WSH 7 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 11 |
| Shots on goal | ANA 28.9, WSH 29.6 | ANA 45, WSH 29 |
| Win chance | WSH 58% | WSH won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH J. Chychrun | 3.3 | 1 | 0.82 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| WSH A. Ovechkin | 3.1 | 4 | 1.04 | 2 | 41% | 2 |
| ANA C. Gauthier | 3.0 | 4 | 0.66 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| WSH A. Beauvillier | 2.3 | 0 | 0.48 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| WSH R. Leonard | 2.3 | 3 | 0.66 | 2 | 20% | 1 |
| ANA M. McTavish | 2.2 | 2 | 0.61 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| WSH C. McMichael | 2.2 | 2 | 0.70 | 4 | 26% | 0 |
| ANA T. Terry | 2.2 | 2 | 0.69 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| WSH J. Carlson | 2.1 | 2 | 0.75 | 2 | 13% | 1 |
| ANA B. Sennecke | 2.0 | 5 | 0.68 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| WSH D. Strome | 2.0 | 3 | 1.04 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| ANA C. Kreider | 2.0 | 1 | 0.56 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| ANA L. Carlsson | 2.0 | 1 | 0.70 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| ANA M. Granlund | 1.9 | 2 | 0.69 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| ANA J. LaCombe | 1.8 | 5 | 0.55 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| ANA J. Trouba | 1.8 | 3 | 0.32 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| WSH J. Sourdif | 1.7 | 3 | 0.48 | 5 | 19% | 3 |
| WSH E. Frank | 1.5 | 3 | 0.48 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| WSH M. Roy | 1.3 | 2 | 0.38 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| ANA O. Zellweger | 1.3 | 4 | 0.25 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| ANA A. Killorn | 1.3 | 5 | 0.32 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| ANA N. Nesterenko | 1.2 | 3 | 0.29 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WSH M. Fehérváry | 1.2 | 2 | 0.36 | 2 | 8% | 0 |
| ANA I. Moore | 1.2 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| WSH N. Dowd | 1.2 | 0 | 0.39 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| ANA R. Poehling | 1.1 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| WSH R. Sandin | 1.1 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| ANA P. Mintyukov | 1.1 | 3 | 0.33 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| ANA R. Gudas | 1.0 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| ANA R. Strome | 1.0 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| WSH S. Milano | 0.9 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| WSH T. Riemsdyk | 0.8 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| WSH B. Duhaime | 0.7 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| WSH H. Lapierre | 0.6 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| WSH D. McIlrath | 0.6 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| ANA R. Johnston | 0.5 | 2 | 0.17 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.