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Game Recap
BOS3
PIT2
BOS beat PIT 3-2, with the chances close: 2.73 expected goals to 3.14. D. Pastrnak led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). K. Letang had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. J. Korpisalo stopped 31 of 33.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| PIT | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
- 1st 1:32BOSD. Pastrnak0.27 xG
- 1st 6:33BOSM. LohreiPP0.10 xG
- 3rd 14:01PITA. BeauvillierSH0.17 xG
- 3rd 19:19BOSC. CoyleEN0.61 xG
- 3rd 19:38PITR. RakellPP0.12 xG
Team Stats
BOSPIT
26Shots on goal33
2.73Expected goals3.14
43Shot attempts69
185v5 shots on goal18
1/2Power play1/7
18Hits27
21Blocked shots7
16Penalty minutes6
16Giveaways27
3Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
BOS 2.73 xGPIT 3.14 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
BOS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Zacha | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 20:23 | 1:45 |
| D. Pastrnak | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:16 | 2:56 |
| C. Coyle | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 21:41 | 0:52 |
| M. Geekie | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:30 | 2:33 |
| E. Lindholm | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:18 | 2:31 |
| J. Beecher | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 13:42 | 0:00 |
| C. Koepke | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 13:02 | 0:00 |
| M. Poitras | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:11 | 0:53 |
| G. Merkulov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11:54 | 0:28 |
| M. Kastelic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 10:55 | 0:00 |
| J. Viel | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6:28 | 0:00 |
| B. Marchand | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2:18 | 0:47 |
| N. Zadorov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 24:19 | 0:02 |
| M. Lohrei | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:43 | 2:42 |
| B. Carlo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 25:27 | 0:00 |
| A. Peeke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 18:14 | 0:00 |
| P. Wotherspoon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 16:23 | 0:51 |
| I. Mitchell | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:42 | 0:40 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Korpisalo | 33 | 31 | 2 | .939 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Swayman | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
PIT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Rakell | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 23:17 | 7:36 |
| B. Rust | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:09 | 7:24 |
| S. Crosby | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 21:34 | 6:53 |
| K. Hayes | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:36 | 7:13 |
| A. Beauvillier | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:09 | 0:00 |
| E. Malkin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 19:33 | 5:40 |
| P. Tomasino | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:59 | 2:58 |
| C. Glass | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:36 | 0:00 |
| D. Heinen | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:45 | 2:33 |
| N. Acciari | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:45 | 0:04 |
| B. Lizotte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9:43 | 0:02 |
| E. Bemstrom | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:58 | 0:06 |
| E. Karlsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 29:07 | 6:44 |
| M. Grzelcyk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 24:10 | 3:46 |
| K. Letang | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:50 | 3:06 |
| R. Shea | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 19:22 | 0:01 |
| V. Desharnais | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:34 | 0:00 |
| P. Joseph | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3:35 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Nedeljkovic | 25 | 23 | 2 | .920 | 57:54 | Loss |
| J. Blomqvist | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BOS 3.0, PIT 2.9 | BOS 3, PIT 2 |
| Total goals | 5.8 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | BOS 27.0, PIT 29.8 | BOS 26, PIT 33 |
| Win chance | BOS 51% | BOS won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS D. Pastrnak | 4.5 | 4 | 1.42 | 2 | 46% | 1 |
| PIT S. Crosby | 3.1 | 2 | 1.11 | 1 | 33% | 0 |
| PIT R. Rakell | 2.9 | 5 | 0.78 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| BOS B. Marchand | 2.9 | 0 | 0.93 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| PIT B. Rust | 2.8 | 2 | 0.83 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| PIT E. Karlsson | 2.5 | 1 | 0.76 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BOS M. Geekie | 2.3 | 0 | 0.68 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| PIT A. Beauvillier | 2.3 | 2 | 0.40 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| BOS E. Lindholm | 2.2 | 3 | 0.71 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| PIT K. Hayes | 2.2 | 4 | 0.45 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| PIT K. Letang | 2.1 | 7 | 0.54 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BOS P. Zacha | 1.9 | 0 | 0.78 | 2 | 23% | 0 |
| PIT C. Glass | 1.8 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| PIT E. Malkin | 1.8 | 1 | 0.70 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| BOS C. Coyle | 1.7 | 2 | 0.55 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| PIT P. Tomasino | 1.6 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| BOS N. Zadorov | 1.6 | 0 | 0.34 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| BOS M. Lohrei | 1.4 | 3 | 0.53 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| PIT D. Heinen | 1.3 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| PIT E. Bemstrom | 1.2 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BOS G. Merkulov | 1.2 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PIT P. Joseph | 1.1 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BOS B. Carlo | 1.1 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PIT M. Grzelcyk | 1.1 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| BOS A. Peeke | 1.1 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PIT B. Lizotte | 1.1 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PIT N. Acciari | 1.1 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BOS P. Wotherspoon | 1.1 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| BOS M. Poitras | 1.0 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BOS M. Kastelic | 1.0 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BOS C. Koepke | 0.9 | 5 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BOS J. Viel | 0.9 | 2 | 0.16 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BOS I. Mitchell | 0.8 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| PIT R. Shea | 0.7 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BOS J. Beecher | 0.6 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| PIT V. Desharnais | 0.5 | 2 | 0.12 | 0 | 1% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.