Game Recap: BUF 1, BOS 3, October 11, 2025

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Game Recap

BUF1

FinalSat, Oct 11, 2025Every game that night

BOS3

BOS beat BUF 3-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.68 expected goals to 2.00. BOS outshot BUF 31 to 22. M. Kastelic led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). T. Thompson had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 3.3. J. Swayman stopped 21 of 22.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
BUF	0	0	1	1
BOS	1	1	1	3

1st 15:48BOSP. Zacha0.15 xG
2nd 10:21BOSM. Kastelic0.02 xG
3rd 9:46BUFJ. Zucker0.03 xG
3rd 19:57BOSS. KuralyEN0.89 xG

Team Stats

BUFBOS

22Shots on goal31

2.00Expected goals4.68

56Shot attempts64

135v5 shots on goal20

0/4Power play0/4

32Hits25

16Blocked shots17

8Penalty minutes8

17Giveaways15

1Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BUF 2.00 xGBOS 4.68 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BUF22 on goal, 1 scored

BOS29 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Zucker	LW	1	0	1	3	3	1	-1	0	19:29	4:06
T. Thompson	C	0	0	0	8	6	0	-2	2	21:46	4:26
A. Tuch	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	20:52	4:27
R. McLeod	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	19:08	3:44
J.Kulich	C	0	0	0	1	1	2	-2	2	18:54	2:56
J. Doan	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	16:00	2:35
J. Quinn	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	14:44	2:34
P. Krebs	C	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	0	14:11	0:02
J. Danforth	RW	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	13:27	0:00
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	7:50	0:07
T. Kozak	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	7:29	0:14
M. Geertsen	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	4:48	0:04
M. Samuelsson	D	0	1	1	0	2	3	0	0	16:28	0:04
R. Dahlin	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	27:15	3:55
B. Byram	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	24:44	2:15
O. Power	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	2	22:07	2:57
C. Timmins	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	-1	2	15:36	0:14
J. Bryson	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	9:27	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Lyon	30	28	2	.933	57:45	Loss
C. Ellis	0	0	0	–	0:00

BOS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Kastelic	C	1	1	2	1	1	1	+2	0	12:42	0:00
E. Lindholm	C	0	1	1	2	2	2	+1	0	18:11	4:30
P. Zacha	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	0	17:25	4:31
S. Kuraly	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	+2	0	13:30	0:00
D. Pastrnak	RW	0	0	0	7	1	1	0	2	19:35	5:11
M. Geekie	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	18:21	4:30
T. Jeannot	LW	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	14:45	0:00
C. Mittelstadt	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	0	14:38	2:26
V. Arvidsson	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	+1	0	13:42	2:26
F. Minten	C	0	0	0	3	2	1	-1	2	12:52	0:00
M. Eyssimont	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11:11	0:00
M. Khusnutdinov	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	10:06	2:24
C. McAvoy	D	0	1	1	1	2	0	+1	2	24:27	3:59
A. Peeke	D	0	1	1	2	1	2	0	0	20:11	0:00
J. Harris	D	0	1	1	0	2	1	+1	0	16:25	0:00
N. Zadorov	D	0	0	0	0	6	3	+2	0	21:32	0:00
M. Lohrei	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	18:52	2:57
H. Jokiharju	D	0	0	0	2	2	2	0	0	13:35	1:46

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Swayman	22	21	1	.955	60:00	Win
J. Korpisalo	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

BUF

Line 1T. Thompson15:25J.Kulich14:00J. Zucker14:26

Line 2A. Tuch10:37R. McLeod10:36J. Quinn10:46

Line 3P. Krebs12:34J. Doan12:27J. Danforth10:17

Line 4B. Malenstyn5:38T. Kozak6:28M. Geertsen4:44

Pair 1B. Byram18:14R. Dahlin18:56

Pair 2C. Timmins11:23M. Samuelsson11:55

Pair 3J. Bryson9:27O. Power16:12

BOS

Line 1E. Lindholm12:01M. Geekie12:52D. Pastrnak12:43

Line 2V. Arvidsson11:16C. Mittelstadt12:08P. Zacha9:30

Line 3T. Jeannot11:28F. Minten10:12M. Eyssimont11:11

Line 4S. Kuraly8:48M. Kastelic8:48M. Khusnutdinov7:22

Pair 1C. McAvoy16:46M. Lohrei15:31

Pair 2A. Peeke14:49J. Harris13:44

Pair 3N. Zadorov14:00H. Jokiharju10:56

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamCasey Mittelstadt BOS Faces BUF, his team until Mar 20242 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	BUF 3.1, BOS 3.2	BUF 1, BOS 3
Total goals	6.2	4
Shots on goal	BUF 27.9, BOS 26.9	BUF 22, BOS 31
Win chance	BOS 52%	BOS won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BOS D. Pastrnak	3.7	7	1.36	0	43%	0
BUF T. Thompson	3.3	8	0.91	0	38%	0
BUF R. Dahlin	2.7	0	0.78	0	16%	0
BUF A. Tuch	2.5	1	0.80	0	29%	0
BUF J.Kulich	2.3	1	0.44	0	21%	0
BUF J. Zucker	2.3	3	0.62	1	23%	1
BOS E. Lindholm	2.1	2	0.70	1	25%	0
BOS M. Geekie	2.1	1	0.86	0	30%	0
BOS C. McAvoy	2.0	1	0.67	1	14%	0
BOS V. Arvidsson	2.0	2	0.49	0	19%	0
BOS M. Eyssimont	2.0	0	0.29	0	12%	0
BUF J. Doan	1.8	3	0.39	0	15%	0
BUF J. Quinn	1.7	1	0.51	0	18%	0
BOS P. Zacha	1.6	1	0.71	1	21%	1
BUF R. McLeod	1.5	0	0.58	0	19%	0
BOS N. Zadorov	1.5	0	0.38	0	11%	0
BOS C. Mittelstadt	1.4	2	0.62	0	19%	0
BUF O. Power	1.4	2	0.36	0	5%	0
BOS F. Minten	1.3	3	0.30	0	16%	0
BOS S. Kuraly	1.3	3	0.28	1	13%	1
BUF J. Danforth	1.3	0	0.30	0	13%	0
BOS M. Lohrei	1.2	2	0.41	0	8%	0
BOS A. Peeke	1.2	2	0.24	1	4%	0
BUF B. Byram	1.2	0	0.45	0	10%	0
BOS M. Kastelic	1.2	1	0.24	2	11%	1
BUF C. Timmins	1.2	0	0.32	0	5%	0
BOS H. Jokiharju	1.2	2	0.29	0	6%	0
BUF P. Krebs	1.1	3	0.34	0	11%	0
BUF M. Samuelsson	1.0	0	0.21	1	4%	0
BOS T. Jeannot	1.0	1	0.26	0	12%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	0.9	0	0.15	0	6%	0
BOS M. Khusnutdinov	0.8	1	0.26	0	11%	0
BUF T. Kozak	0.6	0	0.21	0	10%	0
BOS J. Harris	0.6	0	0.19	1	4%	0
BUF M. Geertsen	0.5	0	0.05	0	4%	0
BUF J. Bryson	0.5	0	0.14	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.