Game Recap: BUF 1, OTT 4, April 2, 2026

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Game Recap

BUF1

FinalThu, Apr 2, 2026Every game that night

OTT4

OTT beat BUF 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.18 expected goals to 2.21. R. Greig led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). D. Cozens had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. L. Ullmark stopped 21 of 22.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
BUF	0	1	0	1
OTT	0	1	3	4

2nd 8:49BUFM. Samuelsson0.01 xG
2nd 15:18OTTD. Cozens0.10 xG
3rd 5:55OTTL. Eller0.17 xG
3rd 17:42OTTR. GreigEN0.94 xG
3rd 18:42OTTS. PintoEN0.94 xG

Team Stats

BUFOTT

22Shots on goal24

2.21Expected goals4.18

46Shot attempts52

185v5 shots on goal18

0/2Power play0/2

24Hits32

16Blocked shots10

19Penalty minutes9

12Giveaways10

4Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BUF 2.21 xGOTT 4.18 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BUF22 on goal, 1 scored

OTT22 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
P. Krebs	C	0	1	1	2	4	1	+1	0	12:16	0:00
R. McLeod	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	2	20:41	1:58
A. Tuch	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	18:57	1:32
J. Doan	RW	0	0	0	2	1	1	-2	0	18:25	2:01
Z. Benson	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	2	17:35	1:35
T. Thompson	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	17:12	2:28
J. Zucker	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	-2	0	16:48	2:25
J. Norris	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	10	16:10	2:01
J. Quinn	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	15:13	1:59
J. Greenway	LW	0	0	0	0	2	2	-1	0	11:39	0:00
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	9:33	0:00
J. Dunne	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	7:17	0:00
B. Byram	D	0	1	1	1	0	3	-1	0	22:58	0:34
M. Samuelsson	D	1	0	1	2	3	1	0	0	20:49	0:00
R. Dahlin	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-2	0	22:37	3:26
O. Power	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	0	19:34	0:01
Z. Metsa	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	16:04	0:00
L. Stanley	D	0	0	0	2	3	0	-1	5	13:30	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
U. Luukkonen	22	20	2	.909	58:42	Loss
A. Lyon	0	0	0	–	0:00

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Greig	C	1	1	2	1	2	1	+2	0	17:08	0:00
S. Pinto	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	0	20:10	1:11
D. Cozens	C	1	0	1	6	4	1	+1	0	16:09	2:51
B. Tkachuk	LW	0	1	1	0	3	1	+1	7	15:55	2:46
W. Foegele	LW	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	9:42	1:13
L. Eller	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	8:18	0:00
T. Stützle	C	0	0	0	2	5	0	0	0	19:57	2:49
M. Amadio	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	0	18:53	0:00
D. Batherson	RW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	15:18	2:45
F. Zetterlund	LW	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	14:12	1:10
C. Giroux	RW	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	13:52	1:13
N. Cousins	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	10:25	0:00
J. Spence	D	0	1	1	2	2	3	+3	2	30:48	2:38
A. Zub	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	+2	0	24:24	0:02
N. Matinpalo	D	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	24:29	0:00
L. Thomson	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	+2	0	20:55	1:22
C. Crotty	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	13:37	0:00
T. Kleven	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1:48	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Ullmark	22	21	1	.955	60:00	Win
J. Reimer	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

BUF

Line 1A. Tuch14:40T. Thompson14:13P. Krebs12:15

Line 2J. Doan15:27Z. Benson14:23J. Norris13:48

Line 3J. Zucker13:15R. McLeod16:41J. Quinn12:53

Line 4J. Greenway9:21B. Malenstyn8:00J. Dunne7:17

Pair 1O. Power18:04B. Byram21:27

Pair 2L. Stanley11:59Z. Metsa13:34

Pair 3M. Samuelsson17:33R. Dahlin18:40

OTT

Line 1M. Amadio16:06S. Pinto15:38C. Giroux12:21

Line 2R. Greig14:28D. Cozens13:18B. Tkachuk12:52

Line 3T. Stützle15:11F. Zetterlund13:02D. Batherson12:32

Line 4N. Cousins10:25W. Foegele8:29L. Eller7:45

Pair 1J. Spence25:48A. Zub20:49

Pair 2C. Crotty11:50N. Matinpalo21:36

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamDylan Cozens OTT Faces BUF, his team until Mar 20251 G, 6 SOG
Old teamJosh Norris BUF Faces OTT, his team until Mar 20251 SOG
HometownJack Quinn BUF Plays in his hometown2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	BUF 3.0, OTT 3.4	BUF 1, OTT 4
Total goals	6.4	5
Shots on goal	BUF 24.2, OTT 30.4	BUF 22, OTT 24
Win chance	OTT 55%	OTT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
OTT B. Tkachuk	3.9	0	0.87	1	33%	0
BUF T. Thompson	3.1	2	1.01	0	40%	0
OTT D. Cozens	2.5	6	0.66	1	25%	1
OTT T. Stützle	2.4	2	1.00	0	31%	0
OTT D. Batherson	2.3	0	0.80	0	28%	0
BUF R. Dahlin	2.3	2	0.86	0	18%	0
BUF A. Tuch	2.3	1	0.77	0	30%	0
OTT S. Pinto	2.2	3	0.61	1	26%	1
BUF J. Quinn	2.1	2	0.63	0	21%	0
OTT J. Spence	1.9	2	0.53	1	9%	0
BUF J. Zucker	1.9	0	0.63	0	24%	0
OTT T. Kleven	1.8	0	0.32	0	6%	0
BUF J. Doan	1.6	2	0.46	0	19%	0
OTT R. Greig	1.6	1	0.41	2	16%	1
OTT W. Foegele	1.5	0	0.33	1	17%	0
OTT C. Giroux	1.5	3	0.56	0	19%	0
OTT F. Zetterlund	1.5	1	0.32	0	14%	0
BUF J. Norris	1.5	1	0.61	0	26%	0
BUF Z. Benson	1.3	1	0.42	0	13%	0
BUF O. Power	1.3	2	0.37	0	7%	0
OTT M. Amadio	1.3	0	0.45	0	20%	0
BUF B. Byram	1.2	1	0.45	1	11%	0
OTT N. Cousins	1.2	1	0.30	0	12%	0
BUF M. Samuelsson	1.2	2	0.39	1	8%	1
OTT A. Zub	1.1	0	0.30	1	6%	0
BUF R. McLeod	1.1	1	0.57	0	17%	0
BUF P. Krebs	1.1	2	0.41	1	12%	0
OTT L. Eller	1.0	3	0.21	1	9%	1
OTT N. Matinpalo	1.0	2	0.13	0	2%	0
BUF L. Stanley	0.9	2	0.23	0	5%	0
OTT L. Thomson	0.9	0	0.20	0	2%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	0.9	0	0.17	0	7%	0
BUF J. Greenway	0.8	0	0.19	0	8%	0
BUF J. Dunne	0.8	0	0.13	0	6%	0
BUF Z. Metsa	0.7	1	0.19	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.