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Game Recap
BUF2
PHI5
PHI beat BUF 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.12 expected goals to 2.80. T. Konecny led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). T. Sanheim had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. I. Fedotov stopped 23 of 25.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| PHI | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
- 1st 13:57PHIT. FoersterPP0.72 xG
- 1st 16:01PHIT. Sanheim0.03 xG
- 2nd 2:08PHIE. Zamula0.02 xG
- 2nd 17:07PHIT. Konecny0.25 xG
- 3rd 10:06BUFR. DahlinPP0.05 xG
- 3rd 18:55BUFR. McLeod0.75 xG
- 3rd 19:42PHIT. KonecnyEN0.95 xG
Team Stats
BUFPHI
25Shots on goal32
2.80Expected goals4.12
63Shot attempts53
195v5 shots on goal21
1/4Power play1/5
13Hits14
12Blocked shots25
12Penalty minutes10
18Giveaways16
5Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
BUF 2.80 xGPHI 4.12 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
BUF Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Tuch | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 22:10 | 2:38 |
| J. Peterka | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:10 | 2:59 |
| R. McLeod | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:16 | 0:17 |
| J. Zucker | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:25 | 2:39 |
| D. Cozens | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 17:38 | 2:53 |
| Z. Benson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 4 | 14:20 | 0:46 |
| P. Krebs | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:49 | 0:00 |
| J.Kulich | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:49 | 0:28 |
| J. Quinn | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:10 | 0:47 |
| S. Lafferty | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:25 | 0:00 |
| B. Malenstyn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:54 | 0:00 |
| N. Aube-Kubel | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10:33 | 0:00 |
| R. Dahlin | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 | 25:00 | 2:11 |
| O. Power | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 23:13 | 1:14 |
| B. Byram | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 22:07 | 0:30 |
| J. Bryson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:57 | 0:00 |
| C. Clifton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 14:25 | 0:00 |
| D. Gilbert | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:36 | 0:00 |
PHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Konecny | RW | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 4 | 19:23 | 2:21 |
| M. Michkov | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:34 | 2:14 |
| A. Richard | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 13:05 | 2:12 |
| S. Couturier | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:13 | 2:23 |
| T. Foerster | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:07 | 3:33 |
| J. Farabee | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:49 | 3:20 |
| N. Cates | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 14:55 | 0:34 |
| S. Laughton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 13:58 | 1:15 |
| R. Poehling | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:44 | 0:22 |
| G. Hathaway | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:29 | 0:22 |
| O. Tippett | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:18 | 2:20 |
| B. Brink | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:23 | 3:10 |
| T. Sanheim | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 4 | +3 | 2 | 27:38 | 1:23 |
| E. Zamula | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 17:09 | 3:22 |
| R. Ristolainen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 | +1 | 2 | 22:28 | 0:14 |
| N. Seeler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 18:30 | 0:14 |
| E. Andrae | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 17:17 | 1:53 |
| E. Johnson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:51 | 0:03 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Fedotov | 25 | 23 | 2 | .920 | 60:00 | Win |
| A. Kolosov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BUF 3.2, PHI 3.0 | BUF 2, PHI 5 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | BUF 26.7, PHI 30.2 | BUF 25, PHI 32 |
| Win chance | BUF 52% | PHI won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI O. Tippett | 3.5 | 1 | 0.71 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| PHI T. Konecny | 3.2 | 6 | 1.05 | 3 | 36% | 2 |
| PHI S. Couturier | 2.7 | 0 | 0.59 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| BUF R. Dahlin | 2.4 | 5 | 0.81 | 2 | 18% | 1 |
| BUF J. Peterka | 2.4 | 4 | 0.71 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| BUF A. Tuch | 2.4 | 0 | 0.92 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| BUF D. Cozens | 2.3 | 3 | 0.65 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| PHI T. Sanheim | 2.0 | 5 | 0.52 | 2 | 13% | 1 |
| BUF J. Zucker | 1.8 | 2 | 0.53 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| PHI J. Farabee | 1.8 | 4 | 0.51 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| PHI S. Laughton | 1.8 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| BUF J. Quinn | 1.7 | 0 | 0.57 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| PHI M. Michkov | 1.7 | 1 | 0.68 | 2 | 22% | 0 |
| PHI T. Foerster | 1.7 | 4 | 0.38 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| BUF J.Kulich | 1.6 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| PHI B. Brink | 1.5 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| PHI R. Ristolainen | 1.4 | 3 | 0.26 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PHI N. Seeler | 1.4 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PHI R. Poehling | 1.3 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| BUF O. Power | 1.3 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BUF B. Byram | 1.3 | 1 | 0.61 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| PHI G. Hathaway | 1.3 | 3 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BUF Z. Benson | 1.2 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| PHI N. Cates | 1.2 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BUF R. McLeod | 1.2 | 2 | 0.45 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| PHI E. Andrae | 1.1 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PHI A. Richard | 1.1 | 0 | 0.48 | 2 | 17% | 0 |
| BUF B. Malenstyn | 0.9 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BUF P. Krebs | 0.9 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BUF C. Clifton | 0.8 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PHI E. Johnson | 0.8 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BUF S. Lafferty | 0.8 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| PHI E. Zamula | 0.7 | 1 | 0.26 | 2 | 5% | 1 |
| BUF N. Aube-Kubel | 0.7 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BUF J. Bryson | 0.5 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| BUF D. Gilbert | 0.4 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.