Game Recap: BUF 2, PIT 4, November 26, 2025

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Game Recap

BUF2

FinalWed, Nov 26, 2025Every game that night

PIT4

PIT beat BUF 4-2, with the chances close: 2.50 expected goals to 2.90. BUF outshot PIT 31 to 19. J. Zucker led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). M. Samuelsson had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. T. Jarry stopped 29 of 31.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
BUF	0	0	2	2
PIT	1	0	3	4

1st 17:09PITM. Dumba0.03 xG
3rd 7:20BUFJ. Zucker0.09 xG
3rd 7:51PITB. Rust0.09 xG
3rd 12:34PITK. Hayes0.10 xG
3rd 15:42BUFJ. Quinn0.15 xG
3rd 19:02PITC. DewarEN0.93 xG

Team Stats

BUFPIT

31Shots on goal19

2.90Expected goals2.50

58Shot attempts46

275v5 shots on goal17

0/0Power play0/1

21Hits17

15Blocked shots10

2Penalty minutes0

15Giveaways14

8Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BUF 2.90 xGPIT 2.50 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BUF29 on goal, 2 scored

PIT19 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Quinn	RW	1	1	2	2	0	1	+1	0	18:39	0:00
J. Zucker	LW	1	1	2	4	0	0	+1	0	18:28	0:00
R. McLeod	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	18:01	0:00
T. Thompson	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-3	0	18:33	0:00
A. Tuch	RW	0	0	0	2	4	1	-2	0	17:40	0:00
Z. Benson	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	16:09	0:00
J. Doan	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	16:02	0:00
T. Kozak	C	0	0	0	0	2	4	-1	0	15:22	0:00
N. Ostlund	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	13:27	0:00
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	0	0	1	4	1	-1	0	9:44	0:00
P. Krebs	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	9:10	0:00
J. Dunne	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	8:11	0:00
M. Samuelsson	D	0	1	1	5	1	4	+1	0	27:47	0:00
R. Dahlin	D	0	0	0	5	1	1	0	0	25:06	0:00
B. Byram	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	20:13	0:00
O. Power	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	19:25	0:00
C. Timmins	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	2	14:06	0:00
J. Bryson	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	12:34	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
U. Luukkonen	18	15	3	.833	59:23	Loss
A. Lyon	0	0	0	–	0:00

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	TOI	PP TOI
C. Dewar	C	1	0	1	1	3	0	+1	17:13	0:00
B. Rust	RW	1	0	1	1	0	2	+1	16:26	1:07
K. Hayes	RW	1	0	1	3	1	0	+2	15:23	0:50
D. Heinen	LW	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	14:59	0:53
E. Malkin	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	+2	18:46	1:10
S. Crosby	C	0	0	0	4	0	0	+1	18:46	1:07
A. Mantha	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	17:37	1:07
T. Novak	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	13:53	0:53
J. Koppanen	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	13:02	0:00
B. Lizotte	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	12:46	0:00
V. Koivunen	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11:33	0:53
T. Broz	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	11:30	0:00
R. Shea	D	0	2	2	0	1	2	+2	19:10	0:00
E. Karlsson	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	23:48	1:07
P. Wotherspoon	D	0	1	1	0	2	2	0	22:37	0:00
M. Dumba	D	1	0	1	1	2	0	0	16:16	0:00
K. Letang	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	+2	20:50	0:53
R. Graves	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	15:25	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
T. Jarry	31	29	2	.935	60:00	Win
A. Silovs	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

BUF

Line 1J. Zucker17:51J. Quinn17:35R. McLeod16:16

Line 2T. Thompson17:56A. Tuch15:57J. Doan16:02

Line 3T. Kozak14:56N. Ostlund13:27Z. Benson15:43

Line 4B. Malenstyn9:19P. Krebs9:10J. Dunne8:11

Pair 1M. Samuelsson26:38R. Dahlin23:36

Pair 2C. Timmins14:06B. Byram19:23

Pair 3J. Bryson12:34O. Power18:15

PIT

Line 1C. Dewar16:36S. Crosby17:02B. Rust15:19

Line 2E. Malkin17:36K. Hayes14:33A. Mantha16:30

Line 3D. Heinen13:29J. Koppanen13:02B. Lizotte12:46

Line 4T. Novak13:00V. Koivunen10:40T. Broz11:30

Pair 1E. Karlsson22:41P. Wotherspoon22:37

Pair 2K. Letang19:20R. Shea18:33

Pair 3M. Dumba16:16R. Graves15:25

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	BUF 3.1, PIT 3.4	BUF 2, PIT 4
Total goals	6.5	6
Shots on goal	BUF 27.1, PIT 29.9	BUF 31, PIT 19
Win chance	PIT 54%	PIT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BUF T. Thompson	3.2	2	0.94	0	39%	0
PIT B. Rust	2.6	1	0.91	1	32%	1
PIT S. Crosby	2.5	4	1.13	0	35%	0
BUF R. Dahlin	2.5	5	0.79	0	15%	0
PIT E. Karlsson	2.4	0	0.82	1	17%	0
BUF J. Doan	2.2	1	0.55	0	21%	0
PIT E. Malkin	2.2	1	0.90	0	27%	0
BUF A. Tuch	2.1	2	0.75	0	28%	0
BUF J. Zucker	2.0	4	0.62	2	23%	1
BUF J. Quinn	2.0	2	0.66	2	23%	1
BUF Z. Benson	1.9	1	0.58	0	17%	0
PIT K. Letang	1.9	2	0.48	0	11%	0
PIT T. Novak	1.7	0	0.55	0	21%	0
PIT K. Hayes	1.7	3	0.40	1	16%	1
PIT A. Mantha	1.6	1	0.61	0	24%	0
PIT C. Dewar	1.6	1	0.34	1	14%	1
BUF R. McLeod	1.4	1	0.57	1	19%	0
BUF O. Power	1.3	1	0.38	0	6%	0
PIT V. Koivunen	1.3	0	0.37	0	9%	0
BUF N. Ostlund	1.2	1	0.32	0	15%	0
BUF B. Byram	1.2	2	0.43	0	10%	0
PIT D. Heinen	1.1	1	0.39	1	16%	0
PIT B. Lizotte	1.1	0	0.34	0	15%	0
BUF M. Samuelsson	1.1	5	0.30	1	6%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	1.1	1	0.19	0	8%	0
BUF C. Timmins	1.0	1	0.29	0	4%	0
PIT P. Wotherspoon	1.0	0	0.25	1	4%	0
BUF P. Krebs	1.0	0	0.30	0	10%	0
PIT M. Dumba	0.9	1	0.18	1	4%	1
BUF T. Kozak	0.9	0	0.29	0	14%	0
PIT R. Graves	0.9	0	0.18	0	5%	0
PIT J. Koppanen	0.9	2	0.20	0	11%	0
PIT R. Shea	0.8	0	0.23	2	7%	0
BUF J. Dunne	0.7	2	0.13	0	8%	0
BUF J. Bryson	0.4	0	0.13	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.