Game Recap: BUF 7, TOR 4, January 27, 2026

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Game Recap

BUF7

FinalTue, Jan 27, 2026Every game that night

TOR4

BUF beat TOR 7-4, with the chances close: 3.05 expected goals to 3.14. BUF outshot TOR 31 to 23. R. Dahlin scored three for BUF. R. Dahlin had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.6. C. Ellis stopped 16 of 18.

Team Stats

BUFTOR

31Shots on goal23

3.05Expected goals3.14

58Shot attempts53

285v5 shots on goal22

1/2Power play0/0

16Hits32

19Blocked shots13

0Penalty minutes4

23Giveaways11

5Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BUF 3.05 xGTOR 3.14 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BUF30 on goal, 6 scored

TOR23 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	TOI	PP TOI
T. Thompson	C	1	1	2	2	1	3	+1	18:57	2:47
J. Doan	RW	1	0	1	5	0	2	0	17:19	2:49
A. Tuch	RW	1	0	1	2	1	1	+2	15:44	0:00
J. Quinn	RW	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	14:21	0:00
R. McLeod	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	13:36	0:00
P. Krebs	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	11:47	0:00
N. Ostlund	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	18:33	2:49
Z. Benson	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	17:02	0:00
K. Helenius	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	16:12	0:00
J. Zucker	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	15:55	2:49
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	0	0	0	1	3	+1	11:54	0:00
T. Kozak	C	0	0	0	0	6	0	+1	11:20	0:00
R. Dahlin	D	3	2	5	7	0	1	+2	26:24	2:49
M. Samuelsson	D	0	3	3	0	4	2	+2	21:41	0:00
O. Power	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	23:02	0:02
B. Byram	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	22:48	0:00
M. Kesselring	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	+1	15:08	0:00
Z. Metsa	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	8:17	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
U. Luukkonen	5	3	2	.600	12:14
C. Ellis	18	16	2	.889	47:46	Win

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Matthews	C	1	2	3	3	1	1	0	0	19:36	0:00
M. Domi	C	1	2	3	3	1	0	+1	0	15:55	0:00
B. McMann	C	1	1	2	4	2	0	-1	0	17:40	0:00
J. Tavares	C	0	1	1	0	3	1	-1	0	19:58	0:00
M. Knies	LW	1	0	1	2	3	0	-1	0	17:44	0:00
M. Maccelli	LW	0	1	1	3	1	0	-1	0	15:36	0:00
S. Laughton	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	-1	0	15:05	0:00
N. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	13:17	0:00
S. Lorentz	C	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	2	13:04	0:00
C. Jarnkrok	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	11:59	0:00
E. Cowan	RW	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	11:14	0:00
N. Roy	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	9:44	0:00
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	-3	0	21:43	0:00
J. McCabe	D	0	0	0	1	5	1	0	0	21:54	0:00
M. Rielly	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	20:52	0:00
T. Stecher	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	19:47	0:00
B. Carlo	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	+1	2	17:15	0:00
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	-1	0	16:40	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Woll	30	24	6	.800	58:08	Loss
A. Stolarz	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

BUF

Line 1A. Tuch15:15Z. Benson16:16T. Thompson15:24

Line 2K. Helenius14:49N. Ostlund14:38J. Doan13:24

Line 3R. McLeod13:36J. Quinn14:21J. Zucker13:06

Line 4B. Malenstyn11:54P. Krebs11:47T. Kozak11:20

Pair 1B. Byram21:28O. Power22:26

Pair 2M. Samuelsson20:49R. Dahlin22:37

TOR

Line 1A. Matthews17:23B. McMann16:20M. Domi14:29

Line 2J. Tavares18:06M. Maccelli14:54M. Knies15:52

Line 3C. Jarnkrok11:16S. Laughton12:42S. Lorentz11:20

Line 4N. Robertson13:17E. Cowan11:14N. Roy9:02

Pair 1O. Ekman-Larsson21:03J. McCabe19:15

Pair 2T. Stecher17:48S. Benoit16:40

Pair 3M. Rielly19:15B. Carlo16:39

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

HometownOwen Power BUF Plays near home (born in Mississauga)3 SOG
HometownRyan McLeod BUF Plays near home (born in Mississauga)1 A, 0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	BUF 3.4, TOR 3.5	BUF 7, TOR 4
Total goals	6.9	11
Shots on goal	BUF 29.1, TOR 28.8	BUF 31, TOR 23
Win chance	TOR 53%	BUF won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	4.0	3	1.15	3	46%	1
BUF T. Thompson	3.3	2	0.95	2	37%	1
TOR J. Tavares	2.7	0	0.90	1	34%	0
BUF R. Dahlin	2.6	7	0.82	5	19%	3
BUF A. Tuch	2.4	2	0.76	1	28%	1
TOR B. McMann	2.4	4	0.54	2	26%	1
BUF J. Zucker	2.2	3	0.67	0	24%	0
BUF J. Doan	2.1	5	0.62	1	21%	1
TOR M. Knies	2.0	2	0.78	1	27%	1
BUF J. Quinn	1.9	2	0.55	1	18%	1
TOR M. Rielly	1.9	1	0.63	0	11%	0
TOR M. Maccelli	1.8	3	0.67	1	21%	0
TOR M. Domi	1.8	3	0.61	3	17%	1
BUF Z. Benson	1.7	0	0.46	0	14%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.6	0	0.43	0	20%	0
BUF O. Power	1.6	3	0.42	0	8%	0
TOR E. Cowan	1.4	1	0.39	0	15%	0
BUF B. Byram	1.4	0	0.51	0	15%	0
BUF R. McLeod	1.4	0	0.62	1	19%	0
TOR S. Laughton	1.4	0	0.37	0	16%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.3	1	0.45	1	9%	0
BUF M. Samuelsson	1.3	0	0.39	3	8%	0
BUF M. Kesselring	1.3	2	0.21	0	5%	0
BUF N. Ostlund	1.2	1	0.48	0	18%	0
TOR S. Lorentz	1.2	1	0.29	0	11%	0
TOR N. Roy	1.1	0	0.40	0	15%	0
TOR T. Stecher	1.1	1	0.21	0	5%	0
BUF P. Krebs	1.0	1	0.31	1	9%	0
TOR B. Carlo	1.0	0	0.16	0	4%	0
TOR J. McCabe	1.0	1	0.37	0	6%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	0.9	0	0.16	0	7%	0
TOR C. Jarnkrok	0.9	2	0.26	0	13%	0
BUF T. Kozak	0.7	0	0.17	0	9%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.7	0	0.11	0	2%	0
BUF Z. Metsa	0.4	1	0.10	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.