UTA beat BUF 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.45 expected goals to 3.21. M. Sergachev led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). J. Peterka had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. K. Vejmelka stopped 25 of 27.
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
BUF 3.21 xGUTA 4.45 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
BUF Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Peterka | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 21:01 | 4:31 |
| T. Thompson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 20:56 | 5:42 |
| R. McLeod | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:12 | 2:11 |
| J. Zucker | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 16:32 | 5:25 |
| A. Tuch | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:33 | 5:29 |
| J. Greenway | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 14:09 | 0:00 |
| T. Kozak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 2 | 13:33 | 0:00 |
| B. Malenstyn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:27 | 0:19 |
| S. Lafferty | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:19 | 0:24 |
| P. Krebs | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 11:21 | 0:33 |
| J. Quinn | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 9:50 | 0:11 |
| B. Murray | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 5:55 | 0:13 |
| R. Dahlin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -4 | 0 | 24:27 | 5:40 |
| B. Byram | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 23:20 | 0:28 |
| O. Power | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:36 | 0:12 |
| M. Samuelsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 17:52 | 0:00 |
| J. Bryson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:29 | 0:19 |
| C. Clifton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 2 | 14:09 | 0:19 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Reimer | 30 | 27 | 3 | .900 | 58:19 | Loss |
| U. Luukkonen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
UTA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Schmaltz | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 19:27 | 4:00 |
| L. Cooley | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19:23 | 3:49 |
| C. Keller | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17:47 | 4:31 |
| D. Guenther | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:51 | 4:18 |
| J. McBain | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:26 | 1:14 |
| B. Hayton | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:11 | 1:52 |
| K. Stenlund | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 14:03 | 0:06 |
| M. Carcone | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:47 | 1:21 |
| A. Kerfoot | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:36 | 0:00 |
| J. Doan | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:12 | 0:00 |
| L. Crouse | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:21 | 1:22 |
| M. Maccelli | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:46 | 0:00 |
| M. Sergachev | D | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +4 | 0 | 24:07 | 3:11 |
| J. Marino | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 0 | 21:37 | 0:02 |
| S. Durzi | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 19:24 | 2:32 |
| O. Maatta | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:09 | 0:00 |
| I. Cole | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | +2 | 4 | 16:49 | 0:00 |
| M. Kesselring | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:50 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Vejmelka | 27 | 25 | 2 | .926 | 59:50 | Win |
| J. Stauber | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BUF 3.1, UTA 3.5 | BUF 2, UTA 5 |
| Total goals | 6.5 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | BUF 27.2, UTA 29.9 | BUF 27, UTA 31 |
| Win chance | UTA 56% | UTA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF T. Thompson | 3.0 | 3 | 0.90 | 1 | 37% | 0 |
| UTA D. Guenther | 2.8 | 3 | 0.88 | 1 | 32% | 1 |
| UTA C. Keller | 2.5 | 2 | 1.12 | 1 | 33% | 0 |
| BUF A. Tuch | 2.4 | 2 | 0.77 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| BUF R. Dahlin | 2.3 | 2 | 0.70 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| BUF J. Peterka | 2.3 | 6 | 0.73 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| UTA B. Hayton | 2.1 | 1 | 0.63 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| UTA N. Schmaltz | 2.0 | 2 | 0.86 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| BUF J. Zucker | 2.0 | 5 | 0.64 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| UTA L. Cooley | 2.0 | 2 | 0.77 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| UTA M. Sergachev | 1.6 | 3 | 0.72 | 2 | 12% | 2 |
| UTA J. Doan | 1.6 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| UTA L. Crouse | 1.5 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| UTA S. Durzi | 1.4 | 3 | 0.50 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| UTA M. Maccelli | 1.4 | 2 | 0.52 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| BUF O. Power | 1.4 | 2 | 0.39 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| BUF R. McLeod | 1.4 | 3 | 0.56 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| UTA M. Kesselring | 1.4 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| BUF J. Quinn | 1.4 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| UTA M. Carcone | 1.3 | 1 | 0.37 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| UTA A. Kerfoot | 1.2 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| UTA J. McBain | 1.1 | 1 | 0.39 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| BUF J. Greenway | 1.1 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BUF B. Byram | 1.1 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| UTA K. Stenlund | 1.0 | 2 | 0.25 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| BUF P. Krebs | 1.0 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| UTA O. Maatta | 0.9 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BUF M. Samuelsson | 0.9 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| UTA J. Marino | 0.9 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BUF C. Clifton | 0.8 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BUF B. Malenstyn | 0.8 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| BUF S. Lafferty | 0.7 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| UTA I. Cole | 0.7 | 3 | 0.21 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| BUF T. Kozak | 0.7 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BUF B. Murray | 0.6 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BUF J. Bryson | 0.5 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 26 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.